Prem10

Weekend Picks - including 9/1 Anytime Scorer value...

Friday 15th May 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend email today:

This week’s need-to-know stats...
Prem10 Picks – 6 bets...
Including 9/1 Anytime Scorer value...

We’ve reached the penultimate weekend of the Premier League season – and we’re looking to cash-in on some very strong Goals, Corners and Cards trends this week...

Plus – we’ve taken a look at the all-important stats for the big TV games including Man Utd v Arsenal, and Steven Gerrard’s final Anfield appearance for Liverpool.

How your Prem10 service works:

We research season-long data, recent form, past meetings, team news... and a wide range of Match Result, Correct Score, Scorers, Goals, Corners and Cards betting markets – every week
We’ve also done all the groundwork for you and gone through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to help produce the stats that you need to know before betting on this week’s Premier League games
We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks

The stats you need to know...

We’ll kick off with the Saturday lunchtime game on BT Sport...

Southampton v Aston Villa (TV) – Match Result

Southampton have won 8 out of 9 Home games v Bottom Half sides this season
Villa have lost 8 of their last 10 Away games

The league table says this is 7th plays 14th, but on Last 6 Form the positions are reversed with Villa in 7th and Southampton second bottom in 19th place. Southampton’s Home form has been solid but Villa are not yet mathematically safe from Relegation – with all that in mind we won’t be taking the odds-on price of 4/5 (1.80) for the Home win.

Southampton v Aston Villa (TV) – Anytime Scorer

Villa have scored in each of their last 6 games
Southampton have kept just 1 Clean Sheet in their last 6 games
Aston Villa’s Tom Cleverley hadn’t found the net all season but has now scored in 3 games in a row

Strikers Graziano Pelle (Southampton) and Christian Benteke (Villa) lead the Anytime Scorer betting at 6/4 (2.50) each, but in-form Villa midfielder Tom Cleverley looks the value here...

Some bookies are as short as 5/1 (6.00) for Cleverley to score, and he looks great value at a standout 9/1 (10.00) with Stan James. Also available at 8/1 with Betway and 6/1+ in general. See Value Picks below.

Man Utd v Arsenal (TV) – Match Result

Man Utd have lost 3 of their last 4 games without scoring
Arsenal have won 5 Away games in a row

On results over the last month or so there’s a case for Arsenal at 2/1 (3.00) for the Away win here, but Man Utd is historically a tough fixture for them – Arsenal have failed to beat United, Home or Away, in 7 Premier League meetings. Add to that the fact that Arsenal have won just 1 out of 5 games v fellow Top 4 sides this season and that 2/1 price starts to look less generous. No bet for us.

Burnley v Stoke – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of Burnley’s last 11 games
Burnley have failed to score in 8 of their last 10 games
Stoke have only scored more than 1 goal in an Away game on 3 occasions all season (from 18 games)
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 6 of Stoke’s last 7 Away games v sides below them in the table

Under 2.5 Goals is the clear choice on the stats, paying out in an exceptional 11 Burnley games in a row. Burnley have already been Relegated, but we’re confident in the stats here. Best price 7/10 (1.70) with BetVictor, 4/6 (1.67) in general. See Stats Picks below.

West Ham v Everton – Total Goals

West Ham have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 games
West Ham haven’t scored more than 1 goal in a game for 10 games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 5 of West Ham’s last 6 Home games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of West Ham’s last 5 Premier League games overall
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 5 of Everton’s last 7 Away games

West Ham have kept Clean Sheets in 3 of their last 4 Home games v Bottom Half sides. And while Everton are in the better form and have the chance to sneak into the Top Half and leapfrog West Ham with a win here, we’re keen to stick with the low Goals stats. Under 2.5 Goals is 10/11 (1.91) with BetVictor, William Hill, Coral and Betfred. See Stats Picks below.

Liverpool v Crystal Palace (TV) – Total Cards

Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 6 of Liverpool’s last 7 Home games
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 6 of Palaces’ last 7 Away games
Liverpool Home games have averaged 4.4 Total Cards this season
Palace Away games have averaged 3.9 Total Cards
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 6 Referee Jonathan Moss’ last 7 Premier League games

This is Steven Gerrard’s last Home game for Liverpool and the bookies seem to be expecting some kind of love-in – with Bet365 lowering the Total Cards line from the standard 3.5 to just 2.5 Cards. The team and Referee stats point very much to an ‘Over’ bet though, and we’re backing Over 2.5 Cards at Evens (2.00). See Stats Picks below.

Swansea v Man City (TV) – Corner Handicap

Man City have won more Corners than any other team in the Premier League this season (averaging 7.17 per game)
Swansea have won fewer Corners than any other team this season (averaging 3.80 per game)
Bets on opponents to win the Most Corners have paid out in all 13 of Swansea’s games v sides above them in the table (Top 7)
Opponents have won the Most Corners in 7 of Swansea’s last 10 Home games
Man City have won the Most Corners in 8 of their last 10 games
Bets on Man City -2 Corner Handicap have paid out in 3 of their last 4 Away games, and 7 of their last 10 overall

This is bottom v top in the 2014/15 ‘Most Corners’ table, and Man City to win the Most Corners is one of the best stats match-ups of the weekend. That option is just 1/2 (1.50) with Stan James and William Hill – but we can get better return for our money with the Man City -2 Corner Handicap, which has paid out just as many times as the Most Corners option this season. Best price 5/4 (2.25) with BetVictor, Skybet and 6/5 (2.20) with William Hill. See Stats Picks below.

Swansea v Man City (TV) – Team with Most Bookings

Bets on opponents to win the Bookings Match Bet have paid out in 8 of Swansea’s last 10 Home games
Swansea have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 1 of their 18 Home games this season
Man City have received the First Card and the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 72% of Away games
Bets on Man City to win the Bookings Match Bet have paid out in 8 of their last 10 Away games

Man City have provided regular Most Bookings and Booking Match Bet payouts Away from home this season (72%), and Swansea’s ‘clean’ disciplinary record makes this game a good target for another bet on City. Best price – City 0 Card Handicap @ 11/8 (2.38) with Bet365. Also available, Booking Match Bet – Man City is 11/10 (2.10) with Stan James, and the same price with William Hill in the Most Booking Points market. See Stats Picks below.

Prem10 Picks...

This weekend’s bets are...

Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:

Burnley v Stoke – Under 2.5 Goals @ 7/10 with BetVictor
West Ham v Everton – Under 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 with BetVictor
Liverpool v Crystal Palace – Over 2.5 Cards @ Evens with Bet365
Swansea v Man City – Man City -2 Corner Handicap @ 5/4 with BetVictor
Swansea v Man City – Man City 0 Card Handicap @ 11/8 with Bet365

Value Picks – our pick of the best value prices on offer:

Southampton v Aston Villa – Anytime Scorer – Tom Cleverley @ 9/1 with Stan James

Latest Premier League odds here

I’ll be back on Monday with a results update.

Enjoy the weekend’s games...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone
Editor

Prem10
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