Prem10

Weekend Picks - including Chelsea v Man Utd...

Friday 17th April 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend email today:

This week’s need-to-know stats...
Man Utd v Chelsea...
Standout stats at Palace...
Prem10 Picks – 6 bets...

We have just 7 Premier League games on the fixture list this weekend with Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa all off to Wembley for the FA Cup Semi Finals...

However the stats have thrown up plenty of opportunities for us with several strong trends and a couple of attractive prices catching our eye. Leading us to 6 Picks this weekend, including a bet on Saturday evening’s big game between Chelsea and Man Utd live on Sky Sports...

We’ve done all the groundwork for you and gone through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to produce our stats that you need to know before betting on this week’s Premier League games

We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks

The stats you need to know...

We start our weekend analysis with the big game at Stamford Bridge...

Chelsea v Man Utd (TV) – Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 4 of Chelsea’s last 5 Home games
Chelsea have scored in 18 games in a row – the best current scoring run in the Premier League
Man Utd have scored in 11 consecutive games – the 3rd best current scoring run in the Premier League
Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 8 of the last 10 Premier League meetings between these sides

The recent stats and the history between these sides point to goals, and we were expecting to see Both Teams to Score at a shorter price than the 10/11 (1.91) available with William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred. That looks one of the stats bets of the week. See Stats Picks below.

Chelsea v Man Utd (TV) – Total Cards

Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 5 of Chelsea’s last 6 Home games
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of Man Utd’s last 5 Away games
When these met earlier in the season there were 115 Booking Points (9 Yellow Cards and 1 Red)
Over 3.5 Cards and Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in 8 of the last 10 Premier League meetings between these sides
There has been a Red Card shown in 5 of those last 10 meetings
Mike Dean is 4th of 21 Premier League Referees for most Yellow Cards shown this season, having taken charge of less games than the 3 men above him in the chart. Dean is also joint 9th of 21 Referees for most Red Cards shown

The team stats, recent history and the appointment of Mike Dean as Referee all point towards an ‘Over’ bet in the Cards & Booking Points market here, but the bookies have set their line too high for us to be a confident in a bet. Bet365 go 5/6 (1.83) for Over 6.5 Cards while William Hill offer a better price for Over 65 Booking Points at 23/20 (2.15). Those bets would’ve only paid out in 3 of the last 10 meetings so it’s a ‘no bet’ for us.

There looks to be a bit of value in the Red Card/ Sending Off markets – there’s a 50% strike rate for Red Card bets in the last 10 meetings between these sides, while Bet365’s price of 5/2 (3.50) implies the likelihood is just 29%. However odds of 5/2 are not big enough to really catch our eye for a bet here and there are bigger prices elsewhere that make our Value Picks list this weekend.

Crystal Palace v West Brom – Match Result

Palace have won 4 in a row, and 5 of their last 6
West Brom have lost 3 in a row, and 4 of their last 5
Palace are 11th in the table, but 3rd on Last 6 Form (W5 D0 L1)
West Brom are without a win in 10 Away games (since 1st November)
West Brom have conceded 10 goals in their last 3 games – losing 3-0, 1-4 and 2-3

Palace are 19/20 (1.95) for the Home win but a closer look at the stats leads us to a bigger price...

Crystal Palace v West Brom – Match Result & Both Teams to Score

Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 6 of Palace’s last 7 games
Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of West Brom’s last 5 games
Palace have scored 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 games, but failed to keep a Clean Sheet in any of those 6
‘Win & Both Teams to Score’ bets have paid out in 9 of Palace’s 11 wins this season, including 7 of their 8 wins since Alan Pardew took over in January
‘Win & Both Teams to Score’ bets have paid out in 3 of West Brom’s last 4 defeats

With all the above stats in mind we’re backing Palace in the Win & Both Teams to Score market for the second week running. Best price 15/4 (4.75) with Coral, 10/3 (4.33) in general. See Value Picks below.

Crystal Palace v West Brom – Corner Handicap

Palace have won the Most Corners in 10 of their last 12 Home games
Palace -1 and -2 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 4 of their last 5 Home games
Bets on opponents with a -1 Corner Handicap have paid out in 3 of West Brom’s last 5 Away games
Palace average 1.9 Corners per Home game MORE than opponents this season
West Brom average 1.7 Corners per Away game LESS than opponents

We also want to be on the in-form Crystal Palace in the Corners markets. Palace -1 Corner Handicap is a best price 39/40 (1.98) with BetVictor, 10/11 (1.91) William Hill and Skybet. See Stats Picks below.

Crystal Palace v West Brom – First Scorer

Palace’s Glenn Murray has scored 6 goals in 6 games, landing 5 Anytime Scorer bets and 3 First Scorer bets

Last but not least in this game, we’re taking the standout 11/2 (6.50) on offer for Glenn Murray to open the scoring for Palace for what would be the third game in a row...

Murray is one of the league’s most prolific scorers right now and a whole point shorter in the betting at 9/2 (5.50) with many bookies. Murray – First Scorer is a standout 11/2 with Stan James and Boylesports. See Value Picks below.

Everton v Burnley – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of Burnley’s last 7 games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 7 of Everton’s last 10 games
Both Teams to Score – NO bets have paid out in 7 of Everton’s last 10 games
Burnley have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 games

Everton are 8/11 (1.73) for a third consecutive Home win, but with the above stats in mind we are drawn to the better price for Under 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 (1.91) in general. See Stats Picks below.

Stoke v Southampton – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of Southampton’s last 10 games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Stoke’s last 6 games
Southampton have only conceded more than 1 goal in a game in 1 of their last 17 Premier League games
Southampton beat Stoke 1-0 in the reverse fixture earlier this season

Southampton’s 10-game Under 2.5 Goals streak could well continue here but odds of just 4/7 (1.57) are too short for us.

Leicester v Swansea – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Leicester’s last 5 Home games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 5 of Swansea’s last 6 Away games
Swansea beat Leicester 2-0 in the reverse fixture earlier this season
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of Swansea’s last 7 Away games v Bottom Half sides

The stats make a strong case for Under 2.5 Goals but relegation-threatened Leicester have shown some fight in recent weeks – scoring 3 goals at Tottenham, 3 at West Brom and 2 at Home to West Ham. That’s enough to put us off backing Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (1.91) here.

Man City v West Ham (TV) – Total Corners

Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 4 of Man City’s last 5 Home games, and 80% for the season
Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 4 of West Ham’s last 5 Away games, and 73% for the season

Two strong season-long Over 10.5 Corners trends here, but the bookies have pushed their line to Over 11.5 Corners for this game – and odds-on prices of 8/11 (1.73) at best with Bet365 and Stan James don’t appeal. We prefer to follow City in the Handicap market...

Man City v West Ham (TV) – Corner Handicap

Man City have won the Most Corners in each of their last 5 Premier League games
Man City have won the Most Corners in 11 Home games in a row
Bets on Man City -5 Corner Handicap have paid out in 6 of their last 7 Home games
West Ham have only won the Most Corners in 1 of their last 4 games

Man City are a short 2/7 (1.29) for the Home win but that bet has only paid out in 4 of their last 7 games at the Etihad. The City -5 Corner Handicap has proved much more reliable, and profitable, paying out 6 times out of 7 in the same period. Available at 5/4 (2.25) with Bet365, 11/10 (2.10) William Hill, Evens (2.00) BetVictor. See Stats Picks below.

Newcastle v Tottenham (TV) – Corner Handicap

Newcastle have won the Most Corners in 4 of their last 5 Home games, and 73% for the season
Bets on Newcastle -1 Corner Handicap have also paid out in 4 of their last 5 at Home, and 73% for the season
Newcastle average 3.1 Corners per Home game more than opponents this season

Newcastle would be our pick on the -1 Corner Handicap at odds-against – best price 11/8 (2.38) with BetVictor – but it’s hard to know what to expect from Spurs, who have won the Most Corners in 3 of their last 6 Away but been ‘out-cornered’ in the other 3. Tottenham’s inconsistent stats put us off a bet here.

Prem10 Picks...

This weekend’s bets are...

Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:

Chelsea v Man Utd – Both Teams to Score @ 10/11 with William Hill
Crystal Palace v West Brom – Palace -1 Corner Handicap @ 39/40 with BetVictor
Everton v Burnley – Under 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 with William Hill
Man City v West Ham – Man City -5 Corner Handicap @ 5/4 with Bet365

Value Picks – our pick of the best value prices on offer:

Crystal Palace v West Brom – Palace to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 15/4 with Coral
Crystal Palace v West Brom – First Scorer – Glenn Murray @ 11/2 with Stan James

Latest Premier League odds here

I’ll be back on Monday with a results update. Enjoy the weekend’s Premier League and FA Cup games...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone
Editor

Prem10
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