The best bets in the Premier League - Part One...
Friday 17th July 2015
In your Prem10 email today:
- Your Team-by-Team Guide – Part One...
- The best bets in the Premier League...
- Getting ready for the new season...
- MLS – 3 out of 3 winners last week, this weekend’s picks online now...
The ‘Raheem Sterling Transfer Saga’ is finally over. And the sight of young Raheem waving a sky blue kit around instead of a red one makes the start of the new Premier League season suddenly feel a whole lot closer...
As promised, I’m kicking off our build-up to the 2015/16 campaign with Part One of your Prem10 Team-by-Team Guide today. This brings together some of the standout stats and most profitable bets from last season – along with a few pointers ahead of the big kick off next month.
Team-by-Team Guide – Part One...
Teams A – L in the alphabet get the treatment today, from Arsenal to Liverpool. More will follow next Friday.
Let’s take a look at the numbers...
Arsenal
Positive:
- Bets on Arsenal to be winning at Half Time & Full Time paid out in 9 of their 12 Home wins (75%)
- Arsenal kept a 1st Half Clean Sheet in 16 out of 19 Home games (86%)
- Arsenal won 8 out of 10 Home games v Bottom Half sides (80%)
- Arsenal covered a -2 Corner Handicap in 14 out of 19 Home games (74%)
Negative:
- Arsenal won just 1 of 8 games v fellow Top 5 sides last season (13%)
Verdict:
Arsenal were a reliable side for ‘Home’ bettors last season, in particular in the Match Result and HT/ FT markets when taking on Bottom Half opposition. Arsenal regularly post dominant Corner-winning figures at Home but it’s rare that we get the chance to back them with Corner Handicap as low as -2 Corners. Key point: Arsenal were reliable at Home v lower-placed sides – but their record v Top 5 sides was alarmingly poor.
Aston Villa
Positive:
- Bets on Aston Villa to win by a 1-goal Winning Margin paid out in 9 of their 10 wins (90%)
Negative:
- Villa lost 20 of their 38 Premier League games last season (53%) – only Relegated side QPR lost more
- Bets on Villa to be losing at Half Time & Full Time paid out 15 times – more than any other team in the Premier League
Verdict:
Villa finished right on the edge of the Relegation zone last season and their high ratio of Games Lost (53%) is a real eye-catcher. They did improve under Tim Sherwood but it’s interesting to note that 4 of Villa’s 5 league wins since Sherwood took over were by a 1-goal Winning Margin. Key point: When Villa lost, they were well beaten. And when Villa did manage to win, it wasn’t by much.
Chelsea
Positive:
- Premier League champions Chelsea won more Home games (79%) and more Away games (58%) than any other side last season
- Chelsea were unbeaten at Home – W15 D4 L0
- Bets on Chelsea -1 Match Handicap paid out in 10 of their 15 Home wins (67%)
- The 2-0 Correct Score was Chelsea’s most common score-line at Home last season, paying out 6 times from 19 games. If backed to level stakes at average odds of 6/1 the 2-0 Correct Score produced 23 pts profit for a 121% Return on Investment (ROI)
Negative:
- Despite their dominant Home Win record, Chelsea were not a reliable Corner Handicap bet last season – covering the -2 Corner Handicap (47%) and -3 Corner Handicap (37%) is less than half of their games at Stamford Bridge
Verdict:
Impressive Match Result figures from the league winners, Home and Away. Backing Chelsea -1 Match Handicap (or, to win 2-0) provided better returns than backing the Home Win at short odds-on. Key point: Chelsea were extremely reliable in the Match Result market but that dominance didn’t always transfer over to over markets such as winning the Most Corners or beating the bookies’ Corner Handicap.
Crystal Palace
Positive:
- 10 of Palace’s 13 league wins came once Alan Pardew took over as Manager in January (77%)
Negative:
- Palace lost 10 Home games last season – more than any other team in the Premier League
Verdict:
A mixed bag from Palace last season with a real up-turn in form once Pardew took over in January, but ending with 4 defeats from 6 once Premier League safety was assured. Key point: Palace won more Home games (6) v Top Half sides than against Bottom Half (4) sides – suggesting they raised their game for the bigger occasions.
Everton
Positive:
- Everton lost just 5 Home games – the best ‘Home Defeats’ record in the Bottom Half of the table. From Bottom Half sides, only West Ham picked up more points at Home than Everton
- Everton received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 2 of their 19 Home games (11%), and in just 8 of all 38 games (21%)
- Everton kept a 1st Half Clean Sheet in 15 out of 19 Home games (79%)
Negative:
- Everton lost all 5 Away games v Top 5 sides (100%), and lost 7 out of 10 Away games v Top Half sides (70%)
Verdict:
A case of Home form = good, Away form = bad for Everton. Everton were a ‘clean’ side when it came to Cards & Booking Points bets. Key point: Everton won just one Away game from 10 against Top Half sides last season.
Leicester
Positive:
- Over 10.5 Corners bets paid out in 14 of Leicester’s 19 Home games (74%) – way above the Premier League 2014/15 average of 52%
Negative:
- Leicester lost 12 Away games (63%) – only Relegated side QPR lost more
- Leicester lost all 5 Away games v Top 5 sides (100%), and lost 8 out of 10 Away games v Top Half sides (80%)
Verdict:
Seven wins from the last 9 games of the season kept Leicester up. That late run disguises what was ‘Relegation form’ for most of the rest of the season – and with the Manager behind that late rally, Nigel Pearson, now gone, odds of 3/1 for Leicester to go down look a little generous right now. Key point: Don’t get too carried away by Leicester’s end-of-season winning streak.
Liverpool
Positive:
- Bets on Liverpool to Score First paid out in 15 of their 19 Home games (79%) – compared to just 10 out of 19 payouts for the Home Win (53%)
Negative:
- Liverpool won just 3 games out of 10 v Top 5 sides (W3 D2 L5)
Verdict:
A pretty middle-of-the-road set of 2014/15 figures from Liverpool means there’s not much to shout about in terms of standout stats. Key point: Plenty of transfer activity at Anfield this summer means we’ll see – for the second season running – a ‘new look’ Liverpool squad on day one. This team might be a slow-burner before any strong betting trends become apparent.
I’ll be continuing our alphabetical look at the Premier League – picking up at ‘M’ for Manchester City and Manchester United – next week.
And I haven’t forgotten the three newly promoted sides Bournemouth, Norwich or Watford – they’ll be getting a special look-in, too.
P.S
If you’re missing the football and looking for some standout stats to follow this weekend then you should take a look at the Major League Soccer (MLS) advice over on our Betting Banter site...
Last week the stats gave 3 out of 3 winning bets and this week there are 3 more ‘MLS Bets of the Week’ – with 2 of them coming on Frank Lampard’s New York City side...
View this week’s MLS advice here...
- You can sign-up for the free MLS email updates every week here
I’ll be back next Friday with Part Two of your Premier League Team-by-Team guide...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
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