Prem10

Need-to-know stats - and 4 bets for the weekend...

Friday 20th February 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend email today:

This weekend’s need-to-know stats...
Our Prem10 Picks – 4 bets...

The weekend action sees four games live on TV – including a triple-header on Sunday afternoon...

From the TV games the stats lead us to Tottenham v West Ham in particular – see below for all our weekend stats & advice.

We’ve done all the groundwork for you and gone through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to produce our stats that you need to know before betting on this weekend’s Premier League games

We’re then looking to cash-in on the best value prices and markets on offer with our Prem10 Picks

The stats you need to know...

We’re kicking off this week’s analysis with Man Utd’s trip to the Liberty Stadium...

Swansea v Man Utd – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of Man Utd’s last 5 Away games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 7 of Swansea’s last 10 Premier League games
Swansea haven’t scored more than 1 goal in a Premier League game since 2nd December (11 games)

This is one of the strongest stats match-ups of the weekend and we’re backing Under 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 (1.91) with William Hill. Also available @ 9/10 (1.90) with Ladbrokes and 4/5 (1.80) in general. See Prem10 Picks below.

Chelsea v Burnley – Match Result

Chelsea have won 11 out of 12 Home games, and 100% v Bottom Half sides
Burnley have lost 4 of their last 6 Away games

This is by far the strongest Home win match-up on the coupon, but odds of just 1/5 (1.20) reflect that. No betting value for us here.

Crystal Palace v Arsenal – Both Teams to Score

Palace have scored in 4 out of 5 games since Alan Pardew took over as manager
Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 4 of Palace’s last 5 Home games
Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 7 of Arsenal’s last 10 Away games in all comps

The stats make a case for Both Teams to Score here but the market is aware of this trend, with 4/5 (1.80) available across the board. We’re not convinced enough to take odds-on for this one.

Aston Villa v Stoke – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 8 of Villa’s last 10 Premier League games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Villa’s last 5 Home games
And in 4 of Stoke’s last 5 Away games

Villa have been a prolific Under 2.5 Goals side so far this season, but odds of 4/7 (1.57) are nothing to get excited this weekend. We’ll wait and see if Tim Sherwood’s appointment as Villa manager has an impact on this trend.

Hull v QPR – Total Cards

Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 8 of Hull’s last 10 Premier League games (80%)
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in each of QPR’s last 6 games
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of Hull’s last 5 Home games, averaging 5.4 Total Cards
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of QPR’s last 5 Away games, averaging 4.4 Total Cards

This Over 3.5 Cards stat is one of the highest-rated trends of the weekend but we are priced out of it with a higher 4.5 Cards line from the bookies (11/10 @ Bet365). No bet for us.

Some value on offer here though...

Sunderland v West Brom – Time of First Goal

There has been a goal scored Before 21st Minute in each of Sunderland’s last 6 Home games
Average First Goal Time in Sunderland Home games = 19 mins
Time of First Goal – 27th Minute or Before bets have paid out in 3 of West Brom’s last 5 Away games

Sunderland were the kings of the 0-0 earlier this season (6 goalless draws – more than any other Premier League side), but their recent Home form shows a significant ‘early goals’ trend...

The usual marker for the Time of First Goal market is around 27 minutes, so the ‘33rd Minute or Before’ line at Boylesports looks a touch of value here, at odds of 21/20 (2.05). Also available, ‘Up to and Including 32nd Minute’ @ Evens (2.00) with Paddy Power and ‘Up to Minute 31’ @ 23/20 (2.15) with BetVictor also look a little generous. See Prem10 Picks below.

Man City v Newcastle (TV) – Corner Handicap

Bets on Man City to win the Most Corners have paid out in 83% of Home games – more times than backing City to win the game (58%)
City have landed -1 Corner Handicap bets in each of their last 8 Home games
City have won a double-figure amount of Corners in each of their last 4 Home games, with –4 and -5 Corner Handicap bets paying out each time
Opponents have won the Most Corners in 7 of Newcastle’s last 10 Away games (70%)

Man City have been posting some truly exceptional Corner-winning stats at Home lately (13, 16, 10 and 10 Corners won in their last 4 games at the Etihad). A -4 Corner Handicap is big on most occasions – but has paid out in each of City’s last 4 Home games and we’re happy to trust City to win 5 Corners+ more than Newcastle here. See Prem10 Picks below.

Tottenham v West Ham (TV) – Match Result & Both Teams to Score

Tottenham have won 7 of their last 10 Premier League games, and 4 of their last 5 at Home
West Ham have only won 1 of their last 8 Premier League games, and none of their last 5 Away
Bets on Tottenham to Win & Both Teams to Score have paid out in 4 of Tottenham’s last 5 Home games
Bets on opponents to Win & Both Teams to Score have paid out in 4 of West Ham’s last 6 Premier League defeats

Tottenham are the form side here and while odds of 5/6 (1.83) for the Home win don’t appeal, 12/5 (3.40) in the Win & Both Teams to Score market catches our attention. That bet has paid out in 5 of their 7 Home wins. Correct Score backers will note that 4 of those 5 wins have been by the 2-1 Correct Score. See Prem10 Picks below.

Southampton v Liverpool (TV) – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Southampton’s last 5 Home games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Liverpool’s last 5 Away games
Liverpool have kept 4 Clean Sheets in their last 5 Premier League games, and 4 in a row Away

A decent-looking Under 2.5 Goals match-up here but odds of 4/5 (1.80) at best don’t offer great value, and this one just misses the cut for us today.

Prem10 Picks...

This week’s Prem10 Picks are...

Swansea v Man Utd – Under 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 with William Hill
Sunderland v West Brom – Time of First Goal – 33rd Minute or Before @ 21/20 with Boylesports
Man City v Newcastle – Man City -4 Corner Handicap @ 20/21 with Bet365
Tottenham v West Ham – Tottenham to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 12/5 with William Hill

Latest Premier League odds here

Enjoy the weekend games. I’ll be back on Monday with an update on the weekend stats and results.

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone
Editor

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk