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Liverpool v Man Utd - and Weekend Picks at 6/1...

Friday 20th March 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend email today:

This week’s need-to-know stats...
Liverpool v Man Utd...
Prem10 Picks – 6 bets...

Liverpool v Man Utd is the big game this weekend, with the North West rivals battling for 4th place and Champions League qualification...

We’re interested in the Cards & Bookings stats for that one – and elsewhere in the Premier League there are plenty of strong trends and a couple of attractive prices that we’re looking to cash-in on...

We’ve done all the groundwork for you and gone through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to produce our stats that you need to know before betting on this week’s Premier League games

We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks

The stats you need to know...

We’ll kick off with one of the league’s form teams – and one of the hottest strikers...

Newcastle v Arsenal – Match Result

Newcastle have lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League games
Arsenal have won 5 in a row, and 8 of their last 9
Newcastle have lost 2 out of 3 Home games v Top 5 sides
Arsenal have won 5 out of 7 Away games v Bottom Half sides (71%)
Newcastle have won just 1 of 5 Home games since 1st Jan
Arsenal have won 4 Away games in a row in all comps

Arsenal are on a 5-game winning run, while Newcastle have failed to score in 3 of their last 4. Everything points to Arsenal, but odds of 4/6 (1.67) for an Away win are a little short for our liking.

The First Scorer market catches the eye though...

Newcastle v Arsenal – First Scorer

Arsenal’s Olivier Giroud has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 6 of his last 8 games
Bets on Giroud to be First Scorer have paid out in 5 of those 8 games
Giroud scored twice v Newcastle in a 4-1 win at Arsenal earlier this season, and has got 6 goals in 5 appearances v Newcastle overall

Olivier Giroud is the Premier League’s in-form striker right now, and is proving a profitable bet in the First Scorer market. Backing Giroud to score first @ 4/1 (5.00) in each of his last 10 games has given 15 pts profit to level stakes. Giroud is a standout 9/2 (5.50) with Coral this weekend. See Value Picks below.

Southampton v Burnley – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of Southampton’s last 7 Premier League games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 6 Southampton Home games in a row
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in Burnley’s last 4 Premier League games
Southampton have the best overall defensive record in the PL this season, and an average of just 0.6 Goals conceded per game at Home

Southampton are the favourites to win and have won 6 out of 7 at Home v Bottom Half sides, but odds of 4/9 (1.44) look a little short for a team that have won just 2 of their last 7 league games, and failed to score in 3 of their last 5...

Burnley have drawn at league leaders Chelsea and beaten 2nd place Man City in the last month, with both those games going Under 2.5 Goals...

We’re dodging the short price for Southampton in the Match Result market and looking to cash-in on their 7-game Under 2.5 Goals streak, and at a better price – 10/11 (1.91) with Coral, Ladbrokes & Betfred. See Stats Picks below.

Tottenham v Leicester – Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in each of Tottenham’s last 5 Home games
Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in each of 4 of Leicester’s last 5 Home games

Both Teams to Score is a strong stats match-up here but odds of 3/4 (1.75) don’t represent the best way to profit here...

Tottenham v Leicester – Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of Tottenham’s last 5 Home games
Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Leicester’s last 5 Away games
Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 10 Tottenham Premier League games in a row
There were 3 goals scored when these sides met at Leicester earlier this season (1-2 Tottenham)

Over 2.5 Goals has paid out 10 times in a row on Tottenham, but rather than take the odds-on 4/6 (1.67) price, we’re drawn to a ‘double’ that takes into account both the goals stats and Match Result betting...

Tottenham v Leicester – Match Result & Both Teams to Score

Tottenham have won 4 of their last 5 Home games
Leicester have lost 5 of their last 7 Premier League games, and 3 of their last 4 Away
Leicester have lost 7 of 9 Away games v Top Half sides this season (78%)
‘To Win & Both Teams to Score’ bets have paid out in 11 of Tottenham’s last 12 Premier League victories, and in each of their last 6 Home wins
Leicester have scored in 4 of their last 6 Away defeats

Tottenham are a clear odds-on favourite to win at 4/7 (1.57). But considering the above goals stats, and the fact that Spurs have kept just 1 Clean Sheet in 10 games, the standout bet is Tottenham to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 2/1+ (3.00+). Best price 23/10 (3.30) @ 888 Sport and 11/5 (3.20) with William Hill. See Stats Picks below.

West Ham v Sunderland (TV) – Total Cards

Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of West Ham’s last 5 Home games
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 10 of Sunderland’s last 11 Away games
Average Total Cards in West Ham Home games this season = 4.6 Cards
Average Total Cards in Sunderland Away games this season = 5.1 Cards

Over 3.5 Cards would be our pick here but we’re priced out of it, with Bet365 going Over 4.5 Cards. No bet for us this time.

West Ham v Sunderland (TV) – Team with Most Bookings

Sunderland have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in each of their last 5 Away games, and 79% for the season
West Ham have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 1 of their last 5 Home games
West Ham average 1.9 Cards per Home game
Sunderland average 3.1 Cards per Away game

Sunderland would be a clear choice in the Booking Points Match Bet/ Card Handicap market, but with new manager Dick Advocaat taking charge of his first game we’re going to sit this one out and see if he has an impact on Sunderland’s disciplinary record.

Liverpool v Man Utd (TV) – Team with Most Bookings

Liverpool have only received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 1 of their last 10 Home games
Bets on Man Utd to win the Bookings Match Bet have paid out in 4 of their last 6 Away games

Man Utd are 4/7 (1.57) favourites in the Team with Most Bookings market – the bookies are on top of this trend and there’s no value for us there.

Liverpool v Man Utd (TV) – Total Cards

Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of Liverpool’s 5 games v Top 5 sides this season
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 3 of Man Utd’s 4 games v Top 5 sides this season
Total Cards per game average in the last 10 Premier League meetings between these sides = 5.25 Cards (52.5 Booking Points)
Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in each of their last 5 league meetings
Over 5.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of their last 5 league meetings
Referee Martin Atkinson has shown 4 Red Cards in his last 6 games

The bookies look to have got this one sewn up with the higher than average Over 5.5 Cards line with Bet365 reflecting the higher than average Cards stats for this fixture. Could well be a tear-up – but no bet for us at odds of 8/11 (1.73).

Hull v Chelsea (TV) – Time of First Goal

Time of First Goal – 27th Minute or Before bets have paid out in Chelsea’s last 6 Away games, and 10 out of 14 for the season (71%)
Time of First Goal – 27th Minute or Before bets have paid out in Hull’s last 3 Home games
Average First Goal Time in Hull Home games = 26 mins
Average First Goal Time in Chelsea Away games = 21 mins

When these sides met at Stamford Bridge it took Eden Hazard just 7 minutes to open the scoring for Chelsea, and both teams’ recent form suggests another early goal could be on the cards here...

Boylesports have the best line on offer with Time of First Goal – 30th Minute or Before available @ 20/21 (1.95). Elsewhere, Paddy Power go ‘Up to and Including 28th Minute’ @ Evens (2.00) and BetVictor go ‘Up to Minute 27’ @ 11/10 (2.10). See Stats Picks below.

Hull v Chelsea (TV) – Total Cards

Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 7 of Hull’s last 8 Premier League games
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 6 of Hull’s last 7 Home games
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in Chelsea’s last 5 PL games
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of Chelsea’s last 5 Away games, and 79% for the season
Average Total Cards in Hull Home games this season = 4.6 Cards
Average Total Cards in Chelsea Away games this season = 5.7 Cards

This is one of the strongest stats match-ups of the weekend and we’re surprised the bookies haven’t nudged the line higher. Over 3.5 Cards is available @ 4/6 (1.67) with Bet365. See Stats Picks below.

Hull v Chelsea (TV) – First Scorer

6 of Eden Hazard’s last 7 goals for Chelsea have come in Away games
Hazard opening the scoring in the reverse fixture v Hull earlier this season
4 of Hazard’s last 7 goals have been the First Goal of the game

Chelsea striker Diego Costa scored his first goal for 8 games last weekend, but we like the price for Eden Hazard to get on the score-sheet for what would be the third time in 4 games. Costa is 3/1 (4.00) to score first – but Hazard is the value in the First Scorer market @ 6/1 (7.00) with Stan James, Paddy Power, BetVictor and Coral. See Value Picks below.

Prem10 Picks...

This weekend’s bets are...

Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up the stats:

Southampton v Burnley – Under 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 with Coral
Tottenham v Leicester – Tottenham to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 23/10 with 888 Sport
Hull v Chelsea – Over 3.5 Cards @ 4/6 with Bet365
Hull v Chelsea – Time of First Goal – 30th Minute or Before @ 20/21 with Boylesports

Value Picks – our pick of the best value prices on offer:

Newcastle v Arsenal – First Scorer – Olivier Giroud @ 9/2 with Coral
Hull v Chelsea – First Scorer – Eden Hazard @ 6/1 with Coral

Latest Premier League odds here

I’ll be back on Monday with an update on the latest stats and results...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone
Editor

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