Silly season starts here...
Monday 20th April 2015
In your Prem10 – Results email today:
- Weekend results...
- Silly season starts here...
- Coming up this week…
Weekend results...
The stats led us to just one winner at the weekend – a frustratingly poor return considering we were just a couple of Corner kicks away from two more payouts on our Stats Picks.
Everton’s 1-0 win over Burnley provided an Under 2.5 Goals winner – the 8th Burnley game in a row to go Under 2.5 Goals.
Crystal Palace won the Most Corners v West Brom – the 11th time in 13 Home games that Palace have won the Most Corners – but were one Corner kick short of the tally needed to land our -1 Corner Handicap selection.
Likewise Man City, who won the Most Corners for the 12th game in succession – but fell 3 Corners short of covering the -5 Corner Handicap v West Ham (a bet that City had landed in 6 of their previous 7 games at the Etihad Stadium).
The stats led us to strong Corners trends that both continued there, but we just missed out in the Handicap betting markets in both games.
Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:
- Chelsea 1 Man Utd 0 – Both Teams to Score @ 10/11 – LOST
- Crystal Palace 0 West Brom 2 – Palace -1 Corner Handicap @ 39/40 – LOST (Corners = 7-6)
- Everton 1 Burnley 0 – Under 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 – WON
- Man City 2 West Ham 0 – Man City -5 Corner Handicap @ 5/4 – LOST (Corners = 6-3)
Value Picks – our pick of the best value prices on offer:
- Crystal Palace 0 West Brom 2 – Palace to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 15/4 – LOST
- Crystal Palace 0 West Brom 2 – First Scorer – Glenn Murray @ 11/2 – LOST
Silly season starts here
‘Silly season’ is the name we give to the end of season run-in, when a clutch of teams suddenly start to pull wins and results seemingly out of thin air – or lose games – against the odds...
These can be teams mounting a last-ditch attempt to avoid relegation... teams safe in mid-table with little to play for... or top-of-the-table sides battling with the pressure & weight of expectation...
Whatever the underlying factors (and they vary from team to team), we need to approach the rest of the season with each game’s ‘importance factor’ in mind.
From Easter onwards usually signals the start of silly season, and cases in point from the weekend include...
- Crystal Palace – had won 5 of their last 6 games and staved off relegation, but went down 0-2 at Home as former manager Tony Pulis’ West Brom side won after a run of 3 straight defeats...
- Newcastle – have now lost 6 games in a row but still look to be ‘safe’ from Relegation, sitting 7 points above the drop-zone (and 50/1 outsiders to go down). They were beaten 1-3 at Home by Tottenham on Sunday...
- Leicester – have suddenly hit form in the fight to avoid the drop, winning 3 games in a row against West Ham, West Brom and Swansea – at odds-against prices every time. Leicester are now 18th in the table and their next game will be massive – Away to bottom club Burnley...
We’ll be factoring in what’s at stake in each fixture in our bets and coverage from now until the end of the season.
There are still 53 games to go and plenty more opportunities for us to target winning trends and big prices. That includes the Scorer markets, where several players are catching our eye with decent prices available in the First Scorer betting. We’ll be looking to follow up our recent 9/2 and 6/1 payouts on Olivier Giroud and Eden Hazard with more Scorer selections in our Value Picks bets.
No joy this week with Glenn Murray’s scoring streak coming to an end, but our Value Picks remain 9 pts in profit to level stakes – for a 73% Return on Investment – since we introduced them last month.
Coming up this week...
I’ll be back on Friday with our latest stats, analysis of the markets – and of course our weekend Picks.
This week’s big game at the top of the table is Arsenal v Chelsea. And there are some huge games in the relegation fight including Burnley v Leicester, Palace v Hull, Stoke v Sunderland and QPR v West Ham...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
