Prem10

Final Day picks - including a 3/1 shot for Spurs...

Friday 22nd May 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend email today:

This week’s need-to-know stats...
Prem10 Picks – 3 bets
3/1+ Anytime Scorer value...

It’s the final weekend of the season – and we’re looking to cash-in on Sunday’s games with a couple of bets on two of the most profitable trends in the league...

We’ve also got a 3/1+ shot flagged up by our Scorer stats for Everton v Tottenham that looks great value.

The final day is often a tricky one with only a couple of games having any genuine importance – Hull v Man Utd and Newcastle v West Ham – where one of either Hull or Newcastle will be Relegated. Fewer bets for us than most weekends, but we’re keen on all 3 selections that have made the cut...

How your Prem10 service works:

We research season-long data, and recent form, past meetings, team news... and a wide range of Match Result, Correct Score, Scorers, Goals, Corners and Cards betting markets – every week
We’ve also done all the groundwork for you and gone through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to help produce the stats that you need to know before betting on this week’s Premier League games

We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks

The stats you need to know...

We’ll kick off with that big game for Newcastle...

Newcastle v West Ham (TV) – Corner Handicap

Newcastle have won the Most Corners in each of their last 6 Home games, and in 72% for the season
West Ham have won the Most Corners in just 1 of their last 5 Away games

If Hull beat Man Utd, Newcastle will need to win to avoid being Relegated. That scenario has resulted in the bookies giving Newcastle a bigger than usual -3 Corner Handicap to overcome here, at odds of around Evens (2.00). That bet has only paid out in half of the Home games where Newcastle have won the Most Corners this season, so we’re not getting carried away. No bet for us.

Arsenal v West Brom – Corner Handicap

Arsenal have won the Most Corners in 14 out of 18 Home games this season (78%)
Arsenal -2 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 72% of Home games, including 4 of their last 5
Bets on opponents with a -4 Corner Handicap have paid out in 4 of West Brom’s last 6 Away games

Arsenal are strong favourites in the Corner Handicap market but the -4 Corner Handicap on offer @ 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365 looks a little steep considering there’s nothing to play for in this game. William Hill offer the more appealing -2 Corner Handicap but odds of 4/7 (1.57) are too short to grab our attention either.

Aston Villa v Burnley – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of Burnley’s last 12 games
Burnley have failed to score in 9 of those 12 games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 50% of Villa Home games

Villa conceded 6 goals at Southampton last week but there doesn’t look to be much danger of Burnley doing that...

Burnley’s Under 2.5 Goals run is exceptional and although this is a difficult game to call – Burnley are Relegated while Villa have next weekend’s FA Cup Final to prepare for – Under 2.5 Goals is a decent price at 10/11 (1.91) in general. We’re looking to round off the season with another payout from one of the strongest trends in the league. See Stats Picks below.

Chelsea v Sunderland (TV) – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 9 of Chelsea’s last 10 Home games, and in 72% for the season
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of Sunderland’s last 7 Away games, and in 72% for the season
The score was 0-0 in the reverse fixture earlier this season

Sunderland are safe from Relegation now but even with that pressure lifted, we shouldn’t expect a goal rush here. Chelsea have only scored more than once in a game on one occasion in their last 8 at Stamford Bridge – and that makes Under 2.5 Goals an appealing selection for us at odds of 13/10 (2.30) with BetVictor and 6/5 (2.20) in general. See Stats Picks below.

Chelsea v Sunderland (TV) – Team with Most Bookings

Sunderland have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 14 of their 18 Away games this season (78%)
Bets on Sunderland 0 Card Handicap/ Booking Match Bet have paid out in 4 of their last 5 Away games

Backing Sunderland to win the Bookings Match Bet in Away games has been one of the most reliable bets of the season – but their run of 9 ‘Most Cards’ games in a row came to an end at Arsenal midweek (No Cards received) and with Sunderland now safe from Relegation, we’re avoiding odds of 4/6 (1.67) in this end-of-season encounter.

Leicester v QPR – Match Result

Leicester are 2nd in the league on Last 6 Form, with 4 wins
QPR have lost 4 of the last 6 games

The formbook makes Leicester the Home win pick, but odds of 8/13 (1.62) are the shortest we’ve seen about them all season long. Leicester have avoided Relegation while QPR are already down – little to play for here and while Leicester are the clear favourites, we don’t like the price.

Everton v Tottenham – Anytime Scorer

Everton’s Romelu Lukaku has scored in 5 of his last 10 games
Tottenham midfielder Nacer Chadli has scored in 3 of his last 5 games
Chadli is Tottenham’s second Top Scorer behind Harry Kane (who has failed to score in 4 of their last 5 games)

Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane head the Scorer betting here but Tottenham midfielder Nacer Chadli catches the eye at the prices available...

Lukuku and Kane are around 5/4 (2.25) each in the Anytime Scorer market but Chadli has a decent record and looks good value at 3/1 (4.00) with Betfred and Bet365 and a standout 39/10 (4.90) with 888 Sport. See Value Picks below.

Prem10 Picks...

This weekend’s bets are...

Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:

Aston Villa v Burnley – Under 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 with William Hill
Chelsea v Sunderland – Under 2.5 Goals @ 13/10 with BetVictor

Value Picks – our pick of the best value prices on offer:

Everton v Tottenham – Anytime Scorer – Nacer Chadli @ 39/10 with 888 Sport

Latest Premier League odds here

All 10 games kick off at 3.00pm on Sunday – enjoy the final day...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone
Editor

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk