Prem10

Weekend Picks - including Chelsea value at 8/1...

Friday 24th April 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend email today:

This week’s need-to-know stats...
Prem10 Picks – 5 bets...
Including an 8/1 pick for Arsenal v Chelsea...

There’s a big game at the top of the table this weekend with 2nd place Arsenal taking on league leaders Chelsea...

That game is live on Sky Sports on Sunday afternoon – see below for our match stats including two standout bets.

Plus – we have three other Picks on this weekend’s Premier League games...

We’ve done all the groundwork for you and gone through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to produce our stats that you need to know before betting on this week’s Premier League games

We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks

The stats you need to know...

Let’s kick off with the big game at the Emirates...

Arsenal v Chelsea (TV) – Match Result

Chelsea are unbeaten against fellow Top 5 sides this season (W3 D3 L0)
Arsenal’s record v fellow Top 5 sides is W2 D2 L2
Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 5 Premier League meetings with Arsenal (W4 D1 L0)
Arsene Wenger has never managed a winning side against Jose Mourinho in 12 career meetings

This is 2nd v 1st in the league and both sides are in winning form – Arsenal have won an impressive 8 Premier League games in a row, Chelsea 4 in a row. But significantly, Chelsea have a superior record in both the recent head to head, and in ‘Top 5’ games...

Odds of 23/10 (3.30) in the Match Result market look a little generous about the league leaders, but for us the Chelsea – Draw No Bet is the standout bet here. Chelsea have only failed to give a return in that market in 2 out of 32 Premier League games all season. Best price 13/10 (2.30) with BetVictor, 6/5+ (2.20+) in general. See Stats Picks below.

Arsenal v Chelsea (TV) – First Scorer

Chelsea’s Eden Hazard has scored 4 in his last 6 Premier League games, landing First Scorer bets on all 4 occasions
Bets on Hazard to Score First have paid out in 5 of his last 10 Premier League appearances

Player of the Year favourite Eden Hazard has been in exceptional form for Chelsea all season, and has proved a reliable Scorer bet in recent weeks...

Backing Hazard – First Scorer at average odds of 7/1 (8.00) in his last 10 league appearances has produced 30 pts profit to level stakes for a 300% Return on Investment. We’re backing him this weekend at a standout 8/1 (9.00) with 888 Sport. See Value Picks below.

Crystal Palace v Hull – Total Cards

Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 7 of Palace’s last 10 Premier League games
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 7 of Hull’s last 10 PL games
Average Total Cards in Palace Home games this season = 4.10 Cards
Average Total Cards in Hull Away games this season = 5.00 Cards
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 5 of Hull’s last 6 Away games

A decent Over 3.5 Cards trend here but we’re priced out of it with Bet365 raising the line to Over 4.5 Cards @ 6/5 (2.20).

Newcastle v Swansea – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 6 of Swansea’s last 7 Away games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 7 of Swansea’s last 10 Premier League games overall
Newcastle have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 games

The stats suggest a low-scoring game but Newcastle – who are on an ugly 6-game losing run – have seen their last 2 Home games go Over 2.5 Goals. The Under 2.5 Goals option is too short to appeal to us here at odds of 4/6 (1.67).

Newcastle v Swansea – Corner Handicap

Newcastle have won the Most Corners in 5 of their last 6 Home games, and 75% for the season
Bets on opponents to win the Most Corners have paid out in 5 of Swansea’s last 6 Away games, and in 8 of their last 10 overall
Newcastle -1 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 11 of their 16 Home games this season (69%), and in 3 of their last 4 at Home
Bets on opponents with a -1 Corner Handicap have paid out in 6 of Swansea’s last 8 games
Newcastle average 2.9 Corners per Home game more than opponents this season
Swansea average 2.6 Corners per Away games less than opponents

Newcastle are short odds-on to win the Most Corners @ 4/9 (1.44), but the stats lead us to the better price for the -1 Corner Handicap @ 7/10 (1.70) with BetVictor and William Hill. See Stats Picks below.

Stoke v Sunderland – Total Cards

Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 8 of Stoke’s last 10 games
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 5 of Stoke’s last 6 Home games
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 73% of Sunderland Away games this season
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 7 of Sunderland’s last 10 games

We would have had a confident bet on Over 3.5 Cards here but the line is not available – Bet365 go higher at Over 4.5 Cards @ 11/10 (2.10). We’re targeting a different Cards market in this game...

Stoke v Sunderland – Team with Most Bookings

Sunderland have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 80% of Away games
Bets on Sunderland to win the Bookings Match Bet have paid out in each of their last 7 Away games
Stoke haven’t received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in any of their last 8 Home games
Stoke average 1.7 Cards For per Home game
Sunderland average 2.9 Cards For per Away game

This is one of the highest rated stats bets of the week – Sunderland can make it 8 Away games in a row for the ‘Most Cards’ here. Best price 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365 in the 0 Card Handicap market, or 8/13 (1.62) for the Most Booking Points with William Hill. See Stats Picks below.

Everton v Man Utd (TV) – Most Corners

The Away team has won the Most Corners in each of Everton’s last 5 Home games, and in 6 of the last 7
Man Utd have won the Most Corners in 4 of their last 5 games, and in 3 of their last 5 Away
In Everton’s last 5 Home games they have averaged 2.8 Corners per game less than opponents
In Man Utd’s last 5 Away games they have averaged 1.6 Corners per game more than opponents
Everton have won the Most Corners in just 2 of their 9 games against Top 5 sides this season

The stats point to the Away team in the Corners Match Bet or Team with Most Corners markets and Man Utd look a solid bet at a best price 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power, 20/23 (1.87) with BetVictor or 4/5 (1.80) with William Hill. See Stats Picks below.

Man City v Aston Villa (TV) – Team with Most Bookings

Villa have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 8 of their last 10 Away games, including 4 of the last 5
Villa have landed First Card bets in each of their last 7 Away games
City have only received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 1 of their last 7 Home games

The stats point to Aston Villa but there is little value to be found in the Cards markets – Villa are 8/13 (1.62) for the 0 Card Handicap (eg. to win Most Cards) at Bet365, and also odds-on @ just 4/7 (1.57) to pick up the First Card. There’s a strong case for both bets but the prices for this game are a little too short for our liking.

Prem10 Picks...

This weekend’s bets are...

Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:

Arsenal v Chelsea – Chelsea – Draw No Bet @ 13/10 with BetVictor
Newcastle v Swansea – Newcastle -1 Corner Handicap @ 7/10 with BetVictor
Stoke v Sunderland – Sunderland 0 Card Handicap @ 8/11 with Bet365
Everton v Man Utd – Corners Match Bet – Man Utd @ 10/11 with Paddy Power

Value Picks – our pick of the best value prices on offer:

Arsenal v Chelsea – First Scorer – Eden Hazard @ 8/1 with 888 Sport

Latest Premier League odds here

P.S
The best price 8/1 for Eden Hazard is available with 888 Sport – and if you open a new account with them they’ll treble the odds on your first bet... check out that deal here.

I’ll be back on Monday with a results update. Until then, enjoy the weekend games...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone
Editor

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk