Prem10

The best bets in the Premier League - Part Two...

Friday 24th July 2015

In your Prem10 email today:

Your Team-by-Team Guide – Part Two...
The best bets in the Premier League...
Community Shield next weekend – Chelsea v Arsenal...

Another week, another big transfer deal – and another step closer to the start of the season...

Liverpool have completed the signing of Christian Benteke from Aston Villa for £32.5 million. Villa have now lost last season’s top scorer Benteke and their club captain Fabian Delph in a matter of days – and the bookies have reacted by cutting the price on Villa to be Relegated from 5/1 to 3/1.

I highlighted Villa’s poor stats from last season in Part One of your Team-by-Team Guide last week, where we covered A – L in the Premier League alphabet. I’m continuing today with Part Two, M for Manchester through to W for West Ham.

Next weekend I’ll be previewing the Community Shield at Wembley, where Premier League champions Chelsea take on FA Cup winners Arsenal...
After that I’ll be putting together a special pre-season Prem10 report for you – containing standouts stats and bets for the 2015/16 season-long markets including Outright Winner, Top 10 Finish, Relegation and Top Scorer...
And when the season is up and running I’ll be writing to you by email every Friday and before every round of games, with the stats you need to know to find the most reliable and profitable bets in the Premier League every week – along with my recommended bets in the form of highly-rated Stats Picks and attractively-priced Value Picks

That’s all to come as we head into August and the start of the season.

And continuing our build-up to the start of the season, here is Part Two of your Prem10 Team-by-Team Guide. Bringing together some of the standout stats and most profitable bets from last season – along with a few pointers ahead of the big kick off...

Team-by-Team Guide – Part Two...

The second half of the alphabet gets the treatment today, from Man City to West Ham. You can view Part One here.

Let’s take a look at the numbers...

Man City

Manchester City

Positive:

For the second season running, Man City were the Highest Scorers in the Premier League – averaging 2.18 Goals per game
Man City won 14 out of 19 Home games (74%)
Bets on Man City to be winning at Half Time & Full Time paid out in 10 of their 14 Home wins (71%)
Over 10.5 Corners bets paid out in 15 of City’s 19 Home games (79%)
Man City won the Most Corners in 17 out of 19 Home games (89%) – covering a -1 Corner Handicap in 84% and a -2 Corner Handicap in 79%
Bets on City to receive the Most Cards/ Booking Points paid out in 14 of their 19 Away games (74%) – with the same strike-rate for First Card bets

Negative:

Man City won 70% of games v Bottom Half sides last season, but just 55% v Top Half sides (and 38% v fellow Top 5 sides)

Verdict:
Man City were strong at Home but as the odds-on favourite in most games at the Etihad Stadium, they were hard to make money from in the Match Result markets – even backing City HT/ FT at Home at average odds of Evens would have produced just 1 pt profit to level stakes for the season as a whole, for a measly 5% Return on Investment (ROI). Key point: The best way to make money from City was to back them to win the Most Cards or Booking Points in Away games. As a Top 5 team they were often underestimated by bookies in those markets – backing City at odds-against prices of 11/8 in every Away game produced 14.32 pts profit to level stakes for a healthy 75% ROI. Look out for this trend to continue in the new season.

Manchester United

Positive:

Man Utd won 14 out of 19 Home games (74%)
Bets on Man Utd -1 Match Handicap paid out in 10 of their 14 Home wins (71%)
Man Utd were unbeaten at Home v fellow Top 5 sides – W2 D2 L0

Negative:

Man Utd won just 6 of 19 Away games (32%) – the second-lowest Away win rate in the Top Half of the table
Man Utd kept just 6 Clean Sheets at Home (32%) – the worst Clean Sheet record in the Top 4. They also conceded more Goals at Home than their fellow Top 4 sides
Man Utd won 9 out of 10 Home games v Bottom Half sides – but just 2 out of 10 Away games v Bottom Half opposition

Verdict:
Man Utd had a great Home win record – although only keeping 6 Clean Sheets in 19 games at Old Trafford is a concern. Key point: Man Utd finished 4th last season and the 3 teams above them all won at least 4 more Away games than them – United would need to significantly improve their Away form to make odds of 5/1 for the title worth even considering.

Newcastle United

Positive:

To Win To Nil bets paid out in 7 of Newcastle’s 10 wins (70%)
Winning Margin – To Win By 1 Goal bets also paid out in 7 of their 10 wins (70%)
Only one team in the Bottom Half of the table won more Home games than Newcastle’s 7
Newcastle won the Most Corners in 14 out of 19 Home games (74%)
There were at least 3 Yellow Cards (or 30+ Booking Points) in 33 of Newcastle’s 38 games last season (87%)

Negative:

Newcastle’s Away record last season was W3 D4 L12 – only Relegated side QPR had a worse Away record
Newcastle lost 8 out of 10 games v Top 5 sides (80%)
Newcastle lost 7 out of 10 Away games v Top Half sides (70%)
Opponents scored the First Goal in 14 of 19 Away games (74%)

Verdict:
Newcastle’s Home form wasn’t too bad considering their final league position (15th, 4 pts above the Relegation zone) – but their Away form and record v teams above them nearly cost them their place in the top flight. Key point: With a new manager (Steve McClaren) at the helm a better season is expected by many – but Newcastle were 9 pts off the Top 10 last season and the bookies’ prices suggest they don’t expect much improvement in 2015/16, with general odds of 3/1 for a Top 10 Finish. In 5 seasons as Middlesbrough manager McClaren posted just one Top 10 Finish.

Southampton

Positive:

Southampton won 11 out of 19 Home games – only the Top 4 of Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal and Man Utd won more
To Win To Nil bets paid out in 9 of Southampton’s 11 Home wins (82%)
Only Premier League champions Chelsea had a better defensive record than Southampton, who kept 15 Clean Sheets from 38 games and conceded just 33 Goals in total (averaging 0.87 Goals Against per game)
Bets on ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’ paid out in 25 of Southampton’s 38 games (66%) – the highest ‘Both Teams to Score – NO’ record in the Premier League
Southampton won 8 out of 10 Home games v Bottom Half sides (80%) – W8 D2 L0

Negative:

Southampton finished 7th in the table but won just 2 of 12 games v the 6 teams above

Verdict:
Southampton had a great season – built on an excellent defensive record and a reliable win rate against lower-ranked opposition. However their relatively poor record against teams above them suggests they will be hard-pressed to improve again this season. Key point: Southampton are odds-on at 4/11 for another Top 10 Finish but 3/1 to crack the Top 6. That sums up the outlook for Saints in 2015/16 – a Top Half team no doubt but to reach the ‘next level’ of a Top 6 Finish is a tough ask. From the early season-long markets available, the 2/1 for Southampton to win the Premier League ‘Without the Big 6’ (Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal, Man Utd, Tottenham, Liverpool) looks the most appealing right now – they finished 4 pts above the nearest challenger Swansea last time out.

Stoke City

Positive:

There were at least 3 Yellow Cards (or 30+ Booking Points) in 32 of Stoke’s 38 games last season (84%)
Stoke received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 12 out of 19 Away games (63%) and the First Card in 14 (74%)
Stoke committed an average of 12.9 Fouls per game – the second highest amount in the Premier League

Negative:

Stoke won just 5 Away games (26%) – the lowest Away win rate in the Top Half of the table

Verdict:
Stoke have been ranked within the Top 2 in the Premier League for ‘Most Fouls per game’ in each of the last three seasons – and from a betting point of view they have been a team to follow in the Most Cards or Booking Points and First Card markets, especially in Away games. Key point: Stoke are now a well-established Premier League side, and the clearly justified favourites in the ‘Top Midlands Club’ market for next season, priced at around Even Money. Midlands rivals Aston Villa, West Brom and Leicester are all near the top of the Relegation betting, while Stoke in comparison look on course for another mid-table finish or better.

Sunderland

Positive:

Bets on the Draw paid out on Sunderland games more times than any other Premier League team last season – 17 out of 38 games (45%). That’s 5 more Draws than any other team
Backing the Draw at average odds of 9/4 in every Sunderland game produced 17.25 pts profit to level stakes, for a 45% ROI
Bets on the 0-0 Correct Score (or ‘No Goalscorer’) paid out 9 times – producing 52 pts profit and 137% ROI for the season if backed to level stakes at average odds of 9/1
Over 3.5 Cards bets paid out in 14 out of 19 Sunderland Home games (74%)
There were at least 3 Yellow Cards (or 30+ Booking Points) in 33 of Sunderland’s 38 games last season (87%), and at least 4 Yellow Cards (40+ Booking Pts) in 27 games (71%)
Bets on Sunderland to receive the Most Cards/ Booking Points paid out in 14 of their 19 Away games (74%)

Negative:

Sunderland won just 7 league games all season (18%) – the joint lowest win rate in the Premier League (alongside Burnley who were Relegated)
Only Relegated side Burnley scored less Goals than Sunderland’s total of 31 last season – an average of 0.82 Goals For per game

Verdict:
Sunderland’s high percentage of drawn games made backing the Draw (or the 0-0 Correct Score) a profitable bet last season. With 2015/16 betting in mind Sunderland’s low scoring record is probably more significant – they only scored more than one goal in a game on 2 out of 9 occasions after Dick Advocaat took over. Sunderland also had one of the strongest Over 3.5 Cards records in the Premier League last season. Key point: Sunderland are the general 7/2 favourite to be the ‘Lowest Scoring Team’ this season (ahead of two newly-promoted sides Watford and Norwich). Considering Sunderland’s top scoring player last season only registered 5 league goals, the Lowest Scoring Team bet is on the shortlist for my 2015/16 season-long bets. Transfer dealings could have an impact between now and the opening weekend though.

Swansea

Swansea

Positive:

Swansea received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 1 of their 19 Home games (5%)
Bets on the Half Time Draw paid out in 14 of Swansea’s 19 Away games (74%) – and the average Time of First Goal in Swansea Away games was 51 minutes

Negative:

Swansea were the First Team to Score in less than half of their Home games (9 out of 19 – 47%)

Verdict:
Swansea finished comfortably inside the Top Half of the table last season and many of their stats have a mid-table look to them, too. Most notable trends from a betting point of view are Swansea’s low Cards record at Home, and their above average First Goal Time stats on the road which led to several Half Time Draws. Key point: Swansea’s overall stats are solid if not spectacular, and the same could be said for the 5/4 price on them finishing in the Top 10 again this season.

Tottenham Hotspur

Positive:

Bets on ‘Tottenham to Win & Both Teams to Score’ paid out in 7 of their 10 Home wins (70%). Producing 5.5 pts profit and 29% ROI if backed to level stakes at average odds of 5/2 in all 19 Home games
Winning Margin – To Win By 1 Goal bets paid out in 7 of Tottenham’s 10 Home wins (70%). Producing 9 pts profit and 47% ROI if backed to level stakes at average odds of 3/1 in all 19 Home games
Bets on the Tottenham 2-1 Correct Score paid out in 4 of their 10 Home wins. Producing 17 pts profit and 89% ROI if backed to level stakes at average odds of 9/1 in all 19 Home games
Over 2.5 Goals bets paid out in 15 out of 19 Tottenham Away games (79%)
Tottenham won 9 Away games – only the Top 3 of Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal won more
Tottenham were unbeaten Away v Bottom Half sides – W8 D2 L0

Negative:

Tottenham kept just 9 Clean Sheets all season (24%) – only 3 teams managed less

Verdict:
Goals, goals, goals – that was the story of Tottenham’s season. Plenty of options to boost Match Result prices at Home by looking to the Win & Both Teams to Score or Winning Margin - By 1 Goal markets, but it was Tottenham’s Away form against lower opposition that proved most reliable. Key point: Tottenham finished 5th in the league last season but just 17th if ranked on Clean Sheets. They may score plenty again if they keep Harry Kane but their defensive record suggests a Champions League (Top 4) place will allude them once again – odds of 6/1 for a Top 4 Finish don’t appeal to me.

West Bromwich Albion

Positive:

West Brom won 11 games last season – and To Win To Nil bets paid out in all 11
The 1-0 Correct Score was West Brom’s most common score-line when winning, paying out in 7 of their 11 wins. Producing 18 pts profit and 47% ROI if backed to level stakes at average odds of 7/1 in all 38 games
West Brom kept 16 Clean Sheets last season – only league champions Chelsea kept more
Under 10.5 Corners bets paid out in 14 out of 19 West Brom Home games (74%)

Negative:

West Brom won just 1 of 9 Away games v fellow Bottom Half sides

Verdict:
West Brom’s excellent defensive record – 2nd in the Premier League for Clean Sheets – is reflected in their impressive Win To Nil results. With Tony Pulis in charge, that Win To Nil trend is one to keep in mind when backing West Brom in the Match Result markets this coming season, too. Key point: West Brom won more games (7 wins) against Top Half teams than against Bottom Half teams (4 wins) – suggesting they are capable of raising their game for the big occasion.

West Ham United

Positive:

Over 10.5 Corners bets paid out in 15 out of 19 West Ham Home games (79%), in 71% of their Premier League games overall

Negative:

West Ham won just 3 Away games last season – only Relegated side QPR won less

Verdict:
Last season was a season of two halves for West Ham – at the exact half-way point they were 6th in the table with 9 wins from 19 games... but by the end of the season they had added just 3 more wins, and finished in 12th place. Key point: With new manager Slaven Bilic in charge we’ll have to wait and see how West Ham shape up this season – I’ll be keeping a keen eye out to see if their above-average Corners record continues.

Newly-promoted teams...

And finally... a quick note on the three promoted sides. Form from The Championship last season is hard to measure against a step up to the Premier League, but here are a few notes on the new teams:

Bournemouth – were the top scorers in The Championship last season, but also had the second-worst record for Goals Conceded. A repeat of that gung-ho approach in the Premier League could see their season pan out like Blackpool in 2010/11 – plenty of thrills ‘n’ spills & entertainment, winning lots of friends... but ultimately, Relegated.

Watford – won more games than Bournemouth in The Championship and should have a greater pool of players and resources at their disposal. However they have had a revolving door of managers in recent years and current man in the dugout Enrique Sanchez Flores is 6/1 second favourite in the Next Premier League Manager To Leave market – before a ball has even been kicked.

Norwich – finished 3rd in The Championship last season so fully earned their promotion place through the Playoffs. They were right behind Bournemouth and Watford in the rankings for Games Won and Goals Scored, and actually lost one game less than Watford. Norwich have bounced straight back up to the Premier League after being Relegated in 2013/14 – in that season they lost 14 Away games (more than anyone else) and like many of the Relegation contenders, their Home form will be absolutely crucial.

Community Shield next weekend – Chelsea v Arsenal...

Plenty of stats and potential betting opportunities for us in the Team-by-Team Guide...

And I’ll be continuing my research and naming my Prem10 2015/16 Season Bets in a special report for you on the opening weekend of the season.

Plus, I’ll be back next Friday with a look at the stats and betting markets for the annual Premier League ‘curtain raiser’ – the Community Shield match between Chelsea and Arsenal.

Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
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