Prem10

Four bets for the weekend - including Liverpool v Man City...

Friday 27th February 2015

In your Prem 10 – Weekend email today:

This weekend’s need-to-know stats…
Our Prem10 Picks - 4 bets…

There are 8 games taking place this weekend due to the Capital One Cup final between Chelsea and Tottenham on Sunday.

From the three TV games the stats have lead us to bets in both Liverpool v Man City and Arsenal v Everton – see below for all our weekend stats & advice.

We’ve done all the groundwork for you and gone through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to produce our stats that you need to know before betting on this weekend’s Premier League games

We’re then looking to cash-in on the best value prices and markets on offer with our Prem10 Picks

The stats you need to know...

We’re kicking off this week’s analysis with Southampton’s trip to the Hawthorns...

West Brom v Southampton – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 6 of West Brom’s last 8 games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 7 of Southampton’s last 8 games
West Brom have kept a Clean Sheet in 4 of their 6 PL games under Tony Pulis
West Brom’s last 5 Home games have produced an average of 2.2 Total Goals
Southampton’s last 5 Away games have produced an average of 2.0 Total Goals

A very strong case for Under 2.5 Goals but the market is all over this trend, with odds of just 4/7 (1.57) available across the board. Too short for us to get involved in.

Total Corners

Bets on Under 10.5 Corners have paid out in 4 of West Brom’s last 5 Home games
Bets on Under 10.5 Corners have paid out in 4 of Southampton’s last 5 Away games
West Brom’s last 5 Home games have produced an average of 9.4 Total Corners
Southampton’s last 5 Away games have produced an average of 8.4 Total Corners

A decent looking Under 10.5 Corners match-up here but odds of just 3/5 (1.60) don’t offer great value. However there is an opportunity for us to cash-in on West Brom’s strong Corner winning form…

Corner Handicap

West Brom have won the Most Corners in 11 of their 13 Home games
West Brom have landed -1 Corner Handicap bets in 10 of their 13 Home games
West Brom have averaged 6.0 Corners For and 3.4 Against in their last 5 Home games
Southampton have averaged 3.4 Corners For and 5.0 Against in their last 5 Away games

West Brom have been reliable corner winners at home all season and we’re backing them to once again cover a -1 Corner Handicap at 7/5 (2.40) with Bet365. See Prem10 Picks below…

West Ham v Crystal Palace (TV) – Total Corners

Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 11 of West Ham’s 13 Home games – including 4 of their last 5
Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 4 of Crystal Palace’s last 5 Away games
West Ham’s last 5 Home games have produced an average of 11.6 Total Corners
Crystal Palace’s last 5 Away games have produced an average of 12.2 Total Corners

These Over 10.5 Corners stats are some of the highest-rated trends of the weekend but we are priced out of it with a higher 11.5 Corners line – with Bet365 only offering odds of 5/6 (1.83) for the game to go ‘Over’. No bet for us.

Man Utd v Sunderland – Match Result

Man Utd have won all 7 of their Home games against Bottom Half Teams this season
Sunderland have won just 1 of their last 9 games (W1 D3 L5)
Bets on Man Utd to be winning at Half Time and Full Time have paid out in 4 of their last 5 Home games

No surprise that Man Utd are the 4/11 (1.36) Home Win favourite – the shortest price on this weekend’s coupon in fact. Value is hard to come by in this one with the Man Utd HT/ FT win also odds-on at 19/20 (1.95). No Picks for us at these prices.

Total Cards

Bets on Over 3.5 Cards have paid out in 10 of Man Utd’s 13 Home games
Bets on Over 3.5 Cards have paid out in 9 of Sunderland’s 12 Away games – including 4 of their last 5
Man Utd’s last 5 Home games have produced an average of 4.6 Total Cards
Sunderland’s last 5 Away games have produced an average of 6.0 Total Cards

Solid Over 3.5 Cards trends here but we’re priced out of it with Bet365 pushing their Card line up to 4.5 for this match. No bet for us.

Team with Most Bookings

Sunderland have received Most Booking Points in 9 of their 12 Away games
Man Utd’s opponents have received Most Booking Points in 6 of their last 9 Home games
Sunderland have received Most Booking Points in 7 of their last 9 games
Man Utd have received an average of 22.0 Booking Points in their last 5 Home games
Sunderland have received an average of 34.0 Booking Points in their last 5 Away games

Backing Sunderland to receive the Most Booking Points has been a reliable bet all season, but odds of just 3/5 (1.60) for them with a ‘0 Card Handicap’ at Bet365 are not worth taking.

Newcastle v Aston Villa – Total Cards

Bets on Over 3.5 Cards have paid out in 10 of Newcastle’s 12 Home games – including 4 of their last 5
Bets on Over 3.5 Cards have paid out in 5 of Aston Villa’s last 7 Away games
Newcastle’s last 5 Home games have produced an average of 5.2 Total Cards
Sunderland’s last 5 Away games have produced an average of 5.0 Total Cards

The stats make a very strong case for an Over 3.5 Cards bet here, but Bet365 are onto this trend as well, offering just 3/5 (1.60) for the game to go ‘Over’. Too short for our liking.

Team with Most Bookings

Aston Villa have received Most Booking Points in each of their last 5 Away games
Newcastle’s opponents have received Most Booking Points in 4 of their last 5 games
Newcastle have received an average of 20.0 Booking Points in their last 5 Home games
Aston Villa have received an average of 34.0 Booking Points in their last 5 Away games

Solid stats on Villa to get the Most Booking Points, but odds of just 4/6 (1.67) with William Hill are nothing to get excited about.

Stoke v Hull – Corner Handicap

Stoke average 6.8 Corners For per Home game and 4.9 Against
Hull average 3.2 Corners For per Away game and 7.4 Against
Stoke have won Most Corners in 4 of their last 5 Home games
Hull’s opponents have landed -1 Corner Handicap bets in 9 of their last 11 Away games

Stoke are just 3/10 (1.30) to get Most Corners against Hull. The Home side have been given a -3 Corner Handicap, but that’s too big for us to consider given that bet would have only paid out in 1 of Stoke’s last 6 Home games.

Liverpool v Man City (TV) – Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score

Bets on Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals have paid out in each of the last 6 games between these two in all comps
Man City have scored 2 or more Goals on each of their last 6 PL games against Liverpool
Bets on Both Teams to Score have paid out in 4 of Liverpool’s last 5 Home games
Bets on Both Teams to Score have paid out in 4 of Man City’s last 5 Away games
Man City have only kept 1 Clean Sheet in their last 12 games in all comps

Recent history and form points towards a high-scoring game, and odds of 8/11 (1.73) for Over 2.5 Goals and 8/13 (1.62) for Both Teams to Score show the market expects a free scoring game, too. But both those prices are too short for us to get involved in…

With goals expected in this game and given Liverpool’s recent PL record – the Reds are unbeaten in their last 10 games (W7 D3) - and the fact that Man City haven’t won in any of their last 11 PL trips to Anfield (W0 D4 L7) the Score Draw appeals at 19/5 (4.80) with Bet Victor. See Prem10 Picks below…

Team with Most Booking Points

Man City have received Most Booking Points in 10 of their 13 Away games – including the last 5 in a row
Liverpool average 18.1 Booking Points For per Home game and 23.8 Against
Man City average 23.5 Booking Points For per Away game and 10.8 Against

We’ve been following this trend for a few weeks now and this looks another good chance to cash-in. Man City are available with a ‘0 Card Handicap’ at 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365. At the time of writing William Hill, Boylesports, Stan James and Ladbrokes have not yet priced up their Booking Points Match Bet market. See Prem10 Picks below.

Arsenal v Everton (TV) – Match Result

Arsenal have won their last 6 Home games in a row
Everton have lost 6 of their last 7 Away games
Bets on Arsenal to be winning at Half Time and Full Time have paid out in each of their last 5 Home games
Bets on Everton’s opponents to be winning at Half Time and Full Time have paid out in 4 of their last 7 Away games

Despite their loss to Monaco in midweek, Arsenal are the in-form side here and while odds of 4/7 (1.57) for the Home win don’t appeal, Bet Victor’s standout price of 7/5 (2.40) for the Arsenal HT/FT catches our attention. That bet has paid out in Arsenal’s last 5 PL Home games in a row. See Prem10 Picks below…

Prem10 Picks...

This week’s Prem10 Picks are...

West Brom v Southampton – West Brom -1 Corner Handicap @ 7/5 with Bet365
Liverpool v Man City – Winning Margin – Score Draw @ 19/5 with Bet Victor
Liverpool v Man City – Man City 0 Card Handicap @ 6/5 with Bet365
Arsenal v Everton – Arsenal Half Time/ Full Time @ 7/5 with Bet Victor

Latest Premier League odds here >>

Enjoy the weekend games. I’ll be back on Monday with an update on the weekend stats and results.

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone
Editor

Prem10
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