Results update - and Tottenham's 100% record...
Monday 3rd November 2014
In your Prem10 – Results email today:
- Weekend Results = 4 winners...
- Tottenham’s 100% trend, Arsenal’s 80% record...
- This weekend – Liverpool v Chelsea...
A mixed bag of results for us at the weekend...
The Cards and Booking Points stats gave us 2 out of 2 winning bets. But Chelsea (1 goal away) and Everton (1 corner too many) prevented us from making a profit overall.
But here’s the good news. We’re only 99 games into the 380-game Premier League season, and there are some very strong trends developing – all of which can lead us to plenty of winning bets each week...
See below for Tottenham’s 100% trend and several other 80%+ records on show, along with our full list of weekend results.
Weekend results
The stats led us to 10 Recommended Bets. For full details of each bet, view Friday’s email on our site here.
Arsenal v Burnley – Corner Handicap
Final Score: 3-0
Corners result = 18-1
Recommended Bet:
Arsenal -4 Corner Handicap @ 23/20 – WON
Stoke v West Ham – Time of First Goal
Final Score: Stoke 2 West Ham 2
Time of First Goal = 33 mins
Recommended Bet:
Time of First Goal – During or After Minute 28 @ 11/10 – WON
Stoke v West Ham – Corner Handicap
Corners result = 9-2
Recommended Bet:
West Ham +1 Corner Handicap @ 21/20 – LOST
Arsenal v Burnley – Total Cards
Cards result = 1 Card
Recommended Bet:
Over 3.5 Cards @ 6/5 – LOST
Goals – Treble
Man City v Man Utd – Both Teams to Score (1-0 – lost)
Newcastle v Liverpool – Over 2.5 Goals (1-0 – lost)
Everton v Swansea – Over 2.5 Goals (0-0 – lost)
Recommended Bet:
Treble @ 4/1 – LOST
Everton v Swansea – Total Corners
Final Score: 0-0
Corners result = 11
Recommended Bet:
Under 10.5 Corners @ 7/8 – LOST
Hull v Southampton – Corner Handicap
Final Score: 0-1
Corners result = 7-4
Recommended Bet:
Southampton -1.5 Corner Handicap @ 10/11 – LOST
Match Handicap – Double
Arsenal v Burnley – Arsenal -1 Match Handicap (3-0 – won)
Chelsea v QPR – Chelsea -1 Match Handicap (2-1 – lost)
Recommended Bet:
Double @ 13/8 – LOST
Aston Villa v Tottenham – Total Cards
Final Score: 1-2
Cards result = 8 Cards
Recommended Bet:
Over 3.5 Cards @ 3/4 – WON
Everton v Swansea – Team with Most Booking Points
Booking Points result = 20 pts – 65 pts
Recommended Bet:
Most Booking Points – Swansea @ 19/20 – WON
- Our 10 bets produced 4 winning payouts at the weekend – resulting in a -2.05 points loss to level stakes
- For the season to date overall (since Week 1) – our Recommended Bets have produced a 10% ROI
Taking a closer look at the stats....
Ones that didn’t make the cut...
In Friday’s email I named two bets for the Man City v Man Utd game that didn’t make the cut for our Recommended Bets – based on the recent form, the recent history between the sides and the weekend prices available. As it turned out, both bets would’ve won – adding strength to these stats for future meetings...
Man City to beat Man Utd @ 10/11. City have now won 6 of their last 7 Premier League games v United, but this bet didn’t make the cut due to the recent blip in City’s form – winning just 4 of 11 games in all comps before Sunday’s game.
The bookies set their line at Over 5.5 Total Cards – bet that we avoided as it had only paid out in 3 of the last 10 Manchester derbies. This game went ‘Over’ though, thanks to Chris Smalling’s Red Card for United (Total Cards = 7).
A note on Cards and Booking Points bets:
- Bet365’s Total Cards market works like this. Yellow Card = 1 Card. Red Card = 2 Cards. The most one player can get in a single game = 3 Cards (2 Yellows resulting in a Red). As was the case with Chris Smalling on Sunday, who was sent off for his 2nd Yellow Card offence (= 3 Cards).
- William Hill’s Booking Points market works like this. Yellow Card = 10 pts. Red Card = 25 pts. Most one player can get in a single game = 35 pts (2 Yellows resulting in a Red).
We recommend you have accounts with both Bet365and William Hillas many of our Cards and Bookings bets will be with them throughout the season.
One goal away, one corner away...
Our Recommended Bets fell one winning bet short of getting us over the Break Even line this weekend, and two away from a clear profit.
These were the two ‘near misses’...
Chelsea were one goal away from landing our Match Handicap double. Arsenal stayed true to form – landing the -1 Match Handicap bet against a newly-promoted side for the 7th game running (won 3-0). But Chelsea could only manage a 1-goal victory over QPR (2-1) – with QPR scoring from their one and only Shot on Target.
Ten-man Swansea didn’t win a single corner kick in their 0-0 draw at Everton (and had the lowest Possession figure in Premier League history, 33.3%). But Everton’s 11 Corners meant our Under 10.5 Corners bet missed out by just one corner. That’s a bet to keep on our list though – Under 10.5 Corners has paid out in 80% of Everton games and 70% of Swansea games this season.
Our winning bets came from these trends that all continued...
Arsenal – strong Corner winners at Home...
Bets on Arsenal -4 Corner Handicap and -5 Corner Handicap have now paid out in 4 of their 5 Home games (80%).
Bets on Burnley’s opponents with those same Corner Handicaps have paid out in each of their last 3 Away games.
Goal Times – Stoke Home and West Ham Away...
Bets on Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute have now paid out in 80% of Stoke Home games and in 80% of West Ham Away games. With the average First Goal Times standing at 39 mins and 32 mins respectively.
Swansea – Most Bookings in Away games...
Bets on Swansea to receive the Most Cards or Booking Points have now paid out in 4 of their 5 Away games (80%).
Everton on the other hand haven’t received the Most Cards or Booking Points in any of their 5 Home games.
Tottenham’s 100% record...
Over 3.5 Cards bets have now paid out in 5 out of 5 Tottenham Away games (100%) – with games averaging 6.6 Total Cards.
They are just a handful of the strong, 80% and 100% trends on show in the Premier League right now. We’ll be looking to cash-in on more of them this coming weekend.
Eye-catchers update: no Red Card – but there should have been...
Our weekend Eye-catcher was available at an appealing 8/1, but we didn’t get the payout...
The stats highlighted the history of Red Cards in recent Newcastle v Liverpool games – with Newcastle having had 5 players Sent Off in the last 4 meetings.
‘Newcastle to have a Red Card’ @ 8/1 was our Eye-catcher. There were 7 Yellow Cards in the game – 4 for Newcastle – and two notable tackles from Newcastle players Sissoko and Janmaat that had Liverpool fans shouting Off! Off! Off! But Referee, Andre Marriner kept his Red Card in his pocket.
- Remember, these Eye-catchers are separate to our main Recommended Bets – and intended to spice up the weekend coupon by hunting out big odds. All based on the stats – no hunches or wild long-shots. If we land an average of 1 out of 5 over the course of the season at minimum odds of 5/1, we’ll be in profit.
We’ll be on the lookout again this Friday.
Coming up this weekend – Liverpool v Chelsea...
The weekend fixture list finishes off tonight with Crystal Palace v Sunderland live on Sky Sports.
Then at the weekend there’s a full schedule of 10 games for us – including Liverpool v Chelsea...
Chelsea did the double over Liverpool last season and are unbeaten in the last 4 Premier League meetings. Both sides play away in the Champions League this week – we’ll be looking at their post-European form in our research...
We’ll be looking in detail at all the stats for ALL the games, and naming our Recommended Bets in your weekend email – which will be with you at 1.00pm on Friday.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
