Your 6 Recommended Bets - including Chelsea v Arsenal...
Friday 3rd October 2014
In your Prem10 – Recommended Bets email today:
- The weekend is here...
- Super Sunday – 3 live games back-to-back...
- Your 6 Recommended Bets...
Welcome to your Prem10 weekend email. Every Friday we’ll be looking to cash-in on the weekend’s highest-rated bets, based on the stats...
There’s another full schedule of 10 Premier League games this weekend, including 3 games back-to-back on TV on Sunday afternoon – Man Utd v Everton, Chelsea v Arsenal and West Ham v QPR. Those 3 games all feature in our Recommended Bets – see below.
Our betting approach...
All in all we have 6 Recommended Bets for the weekend that meet our bet criteria:
- We are ONLY interested in stats and bets that have a 70%+ winning strike-rate
- We are ONLY interested in betting at odds of around Evens or bigger. So every winning bet you have will double your money or better
- Giving you the edge... We’ll be betting at 50-50 odds, on bets that the stats say have a 70%+ chance of winning
When a top-rated bet is available at Evens+, we will recommend that bet as a Single.
Bets that meet our 70%+ stats criteria but are only available at shorter, odds-on prices will be considered in Doubles, Trebles and Accumulators. We will always be looking for a payout at odds of around Evens or better.
One that didn’t make the cut…
Liverpool v West Brom is the only game that doesn’t feature in our bets today. Last season Liverpool were winning games for fun and scoring bagfuls of goals – but with Luis Suarez gone and Daniel Sturridge not fully fit, Liverpool’s stats have not been matching last season’s highs so far. Add to that the fact that Liverpool have only won 1 of their last 5 meetings with West Brom, and we’ll put Liverpool on the ‘no bet’ list for this week.
This weekend’s Recommended Bets...
Here are your 6 Recommended Bets. Starting with the big game at the top of the table...
Chelsea v Arsenal (TV) – Chelsea -2 Corner Handicap
- Chelsea have won the Most Corners in 3 out of 3 Home games this season (100%), and in 9 of their last 10 at Home (90%)
- Chelsea won the Most Corners in 79% of Home games last season
- Arsenal have won the Most Corners in just 1 of their 3 Away games this season
- Arsenal won the Most Corners in just 1 out of 5 Away games v Top 6 sides last season
- Chelsea averaged 3.1 Corners per Home game more than opponents last season – and are averaging +3.7 Corners this season
Recommended Bet:
Chelsea -2 Corner Handicap @ Evens (2.00) with Bet365.
This bet should also be available with the likes of William Hill, Stan James, Paddy Power, Skybet and Betway before kick off.
Latest odds here
Next up – a two strongly-rated Both Teams to Score picks...
Both Teams to Score – Double
Hull v Crystal Palace – Both Teams to Score: YES @ 19/20
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in all 3 Hull Home games and all 3 Palace Away games (100%)
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 2 out of 3 Hull Home games and all 3 Palace Away games
- Hull have scored in all 6 games so far (100%). Palace have scored in 5 out of 6 (83%)
Man Utd v Everton (TV) – Both Teams to Score: YES @ 8/13
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 5 out of 6 Everton games this season
- Man Utd have kept just 2 Clean Sheets in their last 10 Home games
- Everton have scored in 7 of their last 10 games v last season’s Top Half sides
Recommended Bet:
A Double on the 2 bets above @ 2/1+ (3.00+) with William Hill, BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes.
Latest odds here
Look to the Corners markets to cash-in on champions Man City this weekend...
Aston Villa v Man City (TV) – Man City -2 Corner Handicap
- Villa have only won the Most Corners in 1 of their 6 games this season
- City have won the Most Corners in 4 games in a row – with -2 Corner Handicap bets paying out in all 4
- Last season’s Top 4 sides (including City) won the Most Corners in 3 out of 4 games at Villa last season
Recommended Bet:
Man City -2.5 Asian Corner Handicap @ 19/20 (1.95) with Bet365.
This bet doesn’t quite make our Even Money rule – but odds of 19/20 (1.95) are as close as you can get right now and we are happy to take them on this occasion. Lookout for the likes of William Hill, Paddy Power, Skybet and Betway also pricing up this bet at around Evens (2.00) before kick off.
Latest odds here
Three Home teams standout in the Draw No Bet market...
Draw No Bet - Treble
- ‘Draw No Bet’ = if the team win, the bet wins. If they draw, that bet is void.
Leicester v Burnley – Leicester Draw No Bet @ 1/3
- Leicester are unbeaten at Home so far (W1 D2). Burnley are yet to win a game Home or Away
- Bets on Leicester – Draw No Bet have given a return in all 3 Home games (100%)
- Leicester have scored in all 3 Home games. Burnley have failed to score in any of their last 5 games – including none of their 3 Away games (100%)
- These two met 8 times in The Championship over the last 4 seasons with bets on Leicester to Win or Draw – Double Chance paying out in 7 out of 8 (88%)
Swansea v Newcastle – Swansea Draw No Bet @ 4/11
- Swansea have beaten Newcastle 4 times in a row (2 Home, 2 Away)
- Newcastle haven’t won any of their 6 Premier League games this season (100%)
- Newcastle have lost 8 of their last 10 Away games – 7 of them To Nil
- Newcastle haven’t scored in any of their 3 Away games this season (100%)
- Swansea have won 2 of their 3 Home games
West Ham v QPR (TV) – West Ham Draw No Bet @ 2/5
- QPR have lost all 3 of their Away games (100%)
- Bets on West Ham – Draw No Bet have given a return in 7 of their last 10 games v Bottom Half sides (70%)
- QPR have failed to score in 2 of their 3 Away games
- West Ham have scored in 5 out of 6 games this season
Recommended Bet:
A Treble on the 3 bets above @ 6/4 (2.50) with Coral, Ladbrokes. Or 7/5+ (2.40+) in general.
Latest odds here
Man City v Villa features again in our Total Goals bet...
Total Goals – Double
Sunderland v Stoke – UNDER 2.5 Goals @ 3/5
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 5 of Stoke’s 6 games this season (83%)
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 8 of the last 10 meetings between these sides (80%)
- Sunderland have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 games
Aston Villa v Man City (TV) – OVER 2.5 Goals @ 4/5
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 3 of Villa’s last 4 games
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 2 of City’s 3 Away games
- City have scored 2 goals or more in 9 of their last 11 Away games (82%)
- Villa have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 2 games
- Over 2.5 Goals bets paid out in both meetings between these sides last season
Recommended Bet:
A Double on the 2 bets above @ 15/8 (2.88) with BetVictor, or 8/5 (2.60) in general.
Latest odds here
And last but not least, two teams to back in the Match Result markets – including top-of-the-table Chelsea...
Match Result – Double
Chelsea v Arsenal – Chelsea to win @ 4/6
- Chelsea have won 3 out of 3 Home games this season (100%), and 8 of their last 10 at Home (80%)
- Arsenal have won 1 out of 3 Away games this season, and 4 of their last 10 Away
- Chelsea won all 5 Home games v Top 6 sides last season (100%)
- Arsenal lost 4 out of 5 Away games v Top 6 sides last season (80%)
- Arsenal have won just 2 of their last 10 meetings with Chelsea
Tottenham v Southampton – Double Chance: Southampton Win or Draw @ 7/10
- Tottenham have lost their last 2 Home games. Southampton have won their last 2 Away games
- Tottenham haven’t won any of their last 4 Premier League games. Southampton have won 4 games in a row
- Bets on Southampton to Win or Draw – Double Chance have paid out in 5 out of 6 games this season (83%)
- Tottenham played in the Europa League this week. They have won just 3 of their last 10 Premier League games played directly after a Europa League game
Recommended Bet:
A Double on the 2 bets above @ 9/5 (2.80) with Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Betfred.
Latest odds here
Follow every bet online...
Remember you can also view live scores and match stats, and all our Head-2-Head betting stats, on your Prem10 website. Log-in with your email address and personal password at: www.Prem10.co.uk
I’ll be back on Monday with an update on the weekend bet results. Enjoy the games!
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
