Derby-day stats - and 3 standout bets for the weekend...

Friday 6th February 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend email today:

• Derby day in the Premier League...
• This weekend’s need-to-know stats...
• Prem10 Picks – 3 bets for the weekend...

Saturday is derby day in the Premier League...

Tottenham and Arsenal kick off proceedings in the lunchtime game on BT Sport. And after that North London derby, we have the Merseyside rivalry with Everton v Liverpool on Sky Sports at 5.30pm. The stats have directed us to a bet on that game – see below.

The stats you need to know...

Here are this week’s need-to-know stats – starting in North London...

Tottenham v Arsenal (TV) – ‘To Be Shown a Card’

• Only three players in the Premier League have received more Yellow Cards than Arsenal defender Calum Chambers this season (7)
• Bets on Chambers ‘To Receive a Card’ have paid out in 5 of his 11 Away appearances
• Chambers was booked in the 1-1 draw with Tottenham earlier this season

Calum Chambers is an appealing 11/5 (3.20) with Paddy Power to receive a card, but our concern here is whether he’ll actually be on the pitch. Chambers hasn’t played in Arsenal’s last 3 Premier League games, so he’s a ‘no bet’ for us. One to look out for next time he makes it onto Arsene Wenger’s team-sheet though.

Aston Villa v Chelsea – Match Result

• 7 of Villa’s last 8 games have been Under 2.5 Goals
• 6 of Chelsea’s last 8 games have been Under 2.5 Goals
• Villa have gone 6 games without scoring a goal – and are the lowest scorers in the league
• Villa have lost 4 games in a row and are without a win in 8
• Each of Chelsea’s last 7 wins have been To Nil – with 5 of them by the 2-0 Correct Score

Strong stats in favour of the league leaders here (no surprise there). And Villa’s woeful scoring record makes the Win To Nil market worth a look... however the bookies aren’t offering any value at all with Chelsea odds-on both to win (@ 4/11) and to Win To Nil (10/11). Under 2.5 Goals is also odds-on (@ 5/6). None of those prices make appeal to us here.

Leicester v Crystal Palace – Total Corners

• Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 4 of Leicester’s last 5 Home games (80%), and 73% for the season
• Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 4 of Palace’s last 5 Away games
• Leicester Home games average 11.3 Total Corners
• Palace Away games average 12.0 Total Corners

The recent form says to expect a high Corners game at Leicester. Stan James are as short as 4/7 (1.57) for Over 10.5 Corners though, with Unibet a ‘best price’ 3/4 (1.75). This has the look of a developing trend for Palace, and we’re not confident taking an odds-on price just yet.

Man City v Hull – Corner Handicap

• Man City have won the Most Corners in 82% of Home games
• Bets on Man City -3 Corner Handicap have paid out in 4 of their last 5 at Home
• With City -4 and -5 Corner Handicap paying out in each of their last 3 at Home
• City average 5.1 Corners per Home game MORE than opponents
• Hull average 3.5 Corners per Away game LESS than opponents

Man City’s Corner record is one of the best in the league, but the huge -6 Corner Handicap generally on offer @ Evens (Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, Paddy Power) is laughable. No bet for us – that Handicap line is simply too big.

There’s a much better price available here...

Man City v Hull – Team with Most Booking Points

• Bets on Man City to receive the Most Cards/ Booking Points have paid out in 6 of their last 8 games
• Hull have only received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 2 of their last 10 Away games
• City have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in each of the last 2 meetings v Hull (both games at Hull)
• Both teams are neck-and-neck on Card averages – City 2.6 For per Home game, Hull 2.6 Away

Man City’s Most Cards/ Booking Points trend has been a consistent performer this season and a profitable one, too. At odds of 9/4 (3.25) this weekend we’re more than happy to go against the market and back City – especially with Hull’s figures (above) in mind. See Prem10 Picks below for our bet.

Swansea v Sunderland – Team with Most Booking Points

• Swansea have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 1 of their 12 Home games (8%) – and in none of their last 5 at Home
• Sunderland have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 8 of their 11 Away games (73%) – and in 4 of their last 5 Away
• Swansea have averaged 1.2 Cards per game in their last 5 at Home
• Sunderland have averaged 3.2 Cards per game in their last 5 Away

This is one of the stats of the weekend – and we’ll be betting on it. Sunderland should be a much shorter price than 5/6 (1.83), especially based on recent form. We’re backing Sunderland to win the ‘Bookings Match Bet’ – see Prem10 Picks below.

Everton v Liverpool (TV) – Match Result

• Liverpool have won 4 of their last 5 Away games
• Liverpool have won 5 out of 7 Away games v current Bottom Half sides this season (71%)
• Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 8 meetings with Everton (W3 D5)
• Liverpool have kept a Clean Sheet in each of their last 3 Away games
• Everton have failed to score in 2 of their last 3 Home games

It’s easy to make a case for the Away win on the stats – Liverpool sit top of the Premier League table on Last 6 form. However, Everton have only lost 1 of their last 6 at Home, and 4 of the last 5 Merseyside derbies have been draws. Liverpool are 13/10 (2.30) to win, but we’re not willing to that back them for the Away win this time.

The Bookings stats do lead us to a bet though...

Everton v Liverpool (TV) – ‘To Be Shown a Card’

• Gareth Barry has received a Yellow Card in 3 of Everton’s last 6 Premier League games
• Barry has been Booked in 4 of his last 10 appearances in all competitions
• Barry is the joint-2nd Most Booked player in the Premier League this season (8 Yellows)
• Barry has picked up 4 Yellows in  9 Home Premier League appearances for Everton this season
• Bets on Barry ‘To Be Shown a Card’ have paid out in all 3 of the Merseyside derbies that he has played in

Gareth Barry is a serial offender this season – and the stats present a weight of evidence to suggest backing him to pick up a Yellow (or Red) Card in this game. Barry is the 9/1 favourite in the First Player Booking market at Paddy Power, but in what could be a feisty derby, picking the first player carded is pretty much guesswork. But at a decent-looking 6/4 (2.50) To Be Shown a Card at anytime, Barry is going on our bet list this weekend. See Prem10 Picks below.

Newcastle v Stoke (TV) – Team with Most Corners

• Newcastle have won the Most Corners in 73% of Home games
• Stoke have won the Most Corners in just 1 of their 12 Away games (8%)
• Opponents have won the Most Corners in each of Stoke’s last 5 Away games

Solid stats on the home team but odds of just 4/9 (1.44) for Newcastle to win the Most Corners are nothing to get excited about. Likewise the -2 Corner Handicap @ Evens with Bet365 asks a little more of Newcastle than what the stats say they can cover. A good trend to follow in the weeks ahead, but no bet for us today.

West Ham v Man Utd (TV) – Match Result

• Man Utd have won 11 of their last 12 PL games v West Ham

Last but not least we have the Sunday afternoon game at West Ham. Man Utd have a phenomenal record against the Hammers and we have to include this on our stats list – but West Ham are shaping up for their best ever Premier League season and Man Utd at Evens is not an appealing Away win bet for us.

Prem10 Picks...

This week’s Prem10 Picks are...

• Man City v Hull: Bookings Match Bet – Man City @ 9/4 with Stan James

Also available – Man City ‘0’ Card Handicap @ 9/4 with Bet365. Latest odds here

• Swansea v Sunderland: Bookings Match Bet – Sunderland @ 5/6 with Stan James

Also available – Sunderland ‘0’ Card Handicap @ 4/5 with Bet365. Latest odds here

• Everton v Liverpool: To Get a Card – Gareth Barry @ 6/4 with Unibet, 888 Sport

Also available @ 5/4 with BetVictor, 6/5 Betfred, 11/10 Paddy Power. Latest odds here

I’ll be back on Monday with the weekend results, and looking ahead to the midweek games...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone
Editor

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk