Your 11 Recommended Bets - and a 5/1 Eye-catcher...
Friday 7th November 2014
In your Prem10 – Recommended Bets email today:
- Your 11 Recommended Bets...
- Plus – a 5/1 Eye-catcher at Old Trafford...
Welcome to your Prem10 weekend email...
This weekend’s big game is Liverpool v Chelsea, live on TV on Saturday lunchtime. We’ve got 3 bets on that one – and a total of 11 Recommended Bets overall...
With 10 weeks of the season now gone some very strong trends are starting to emerge. And we’re looking to cash-in on the pick of them this weekend.
- Remember, we use the stats to find bets with a 70%+ winning strike-rate – and we’re always aiming to double our money by betting at Evens or better on as many of our bets as possible.
Ones that didn’t make the cut…
See below for our 11 bet selections. We were also priced out of following two 100% trends..
Under 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 100% of Leicester Away games and 80% of Southampton Home games, but that bet is too short at just 4/7 with Bet365.
Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 100% of Arsenal Away games and 80% of Swansea Home games, but the bookies are also on to that one with odds of just 8/13 at Bet365.
Plenty of strong bets DO make the cut though...
This weekend’s Recommended Bets...
Here are your 11 Recommended Bets. Starting with 3 bets on the big game at Anfield...
Liverpool v Chelsea (TV) – Chelsea to win
- Chelsea have won 8 of their last 10 games v last season’s Top 5 sides (80%)
- Liverpool have won none of their last 3 games v last season Top 5
- Chelsea are unbeaten this season, winning 8 out of 10 games (80%)
- Liverpool have gone 3 games in a row in all comps without scoring
- Chelsea are unbeaten in 4 games v Liverpool – beating them Home and Away last season
Recommended Bet:
Chelsea to win @ 6/5 (2.20) with BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral.
Also available @ 11/10+ (2.10+) in general.
Latest odds here
Liverpool v Chelsea (TV) – Liverpool -1 Corner Handicap
- Liverpool have won the Most Corners in 8 of their last 10 Premier League Home games v Chelsea (80%)
- Bets on Chelsea’s opponents to win the Most Corners have paid out in 4 of their 5 Away games this season (80%)
- Liverpool have won the Most Corners in 3 of their last 4 Home games
- Liverpool average 3.2 Corners per Home game MORE than opponents
- Chelsea average 3.4 Corners per Away games LESS than opponents
Recommended Bet:
Liverpool -1 Corner Handicap @ 11/8 (2.38) with Bet365.
Also available @ 39/40 (1.98) with BetVictor, 10/11 (1.91) @ Paddy Power, Skybet.
Latest odds here
Liverpool v Chelsea (TV) – Highest Scoring Half
- 4 of Liverpool’s last 5 games have been 0-0 at Half Time
- Bets on the 2nd Half to be the Highest Scoring Half have paid out in 4 out of 5 Chelsea Away games (80%)
- 7 of Liverpool’s last 10 goals have been scored in the 2nd Half (70%). And 3 of the 4 goals that Liverpool have conceded at Home have been in the 2nd Half (75%)
- 7 of Chelsea’s last 10 Away goals have come in the 2nd Half (70%). And 5 of the 7 goals that Chelsea have conceded Away have been in the 2nd Half (71%)
Recommended Bet:
Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half @ 11/10 (2.10) with BetVictor.
Also available @ Evens+ (2.00+) in general.
Latest odds here
There’s a strong trend in the Cards market for the Man Utd v Palace game. Check out our Eye-catcher bet, too, for a 5/1 Red Card bet on this game...
Man Utd v Crystal Palace – Over 3.5 Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 80% of Man Utd Home games
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 80% of Palace Away games
- Both teams average 2.6 Cards each per game
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 8 out of 10 Man Utd games this season (80%)
Recommended Bet:
Over 3.5 Cards @ Evens (2.00) with Bet365.
Total Cards and Booking Points bets will also be available with the likes of William Hill, Paddy Power, Skybet and BetVictor this weekend.
Latest odds here
There are two standout Time of First Goal bets this weekend...
West Ham v Aston Villa – Time of First Goal
- Time of First Goal – 27th Minute or Before bets have paid out in each of West Ham’s last 4 Home games, and in 4 out of 5 for the season (80%)
- Time of First Goal – 27th Minute or Before bets have paid out in each of Villa’s last 4 Away games, and in 4 out of 5 for the season (80%)
- Time of First Goal – 27th Minute or Before bets have paid out in 6 of Villa’s last 8 games
Recommended Bet:
Time of First Goal – Up to and Including 27th Minute @ Evens (2.00) with Paddy Power.
Also available – 28th Minute or Before @ Evens with Boylesports.
Latest odds here
West Brom v Newcastle (TV) – Time of First Goal
- Time of First Goal – 27th Minute or Before bets have paid out in 80% of West Brom Home games (4 out of 5)
- Time of First Goal – 27th Minute or Before bets have paid out in each of Newcastle’s last 4 Away games, and 80% for the season
- Average First Goal Time in West Brom Home games = 12 mins
- Average First Goal Time in Newcastle Away games = 11 mins
Recommended Bet:
Time of First Goal – Up to and Including 29th Minute @ Evens (2.00) with Paddy Power.
Also available – 28th Minute or Before @ Evens with Boylesports.
Latest odds here
Cash-in on Tottenham’s 100% record...
Tottenham v Stoke – Tottenham -2 Corner Handicap
- Tottenham have won the Most Corners in 100% of Home games
- Bets on Stoke’s opponents -2 Corner Handicap have paid out in 80% of their Away games
- Stoke won the Most Corners in just 2 of 19 Away games last season
- Tottenham have won the Most Corners in each of their last 4 games, with -2 Corner Handicap bets paying out in 3 out of 4
- Tottenham average 4.0 Corners per Home game MORE than opponents
- Stoke average 4.2 Corners per Away game LESS than opponents
Recommended Bet:
Tottenham -2 Corner Handicap @ 20/23 (1.87) with BetVictor.
Also available @ 17/20 (1.85) with William Hill.
Latest odds here
Here’s how to profit from 3 of the strongest Match Result bets this weekend...
Match Results – Treble @ 14/5
Southampton v Leicester – Southampton to win @ 4/9
- Southampton are top of the Premier League Last 6 Form table, and have won 7 of their last 8 games
- Southampton have won 4 games in a row at Home, and 4 out of 5 for the season (80%)
- Leicester have lost 3 games in a row, and 4 of their last 5
- Leicester have lost 4 out of 5 Away games this season (80%)
- Leicester have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 games
West Ham v Aston Villa – West Ham to win @ 3/4
- West Ham have won their last 3 Home games
- Villa have lost their last 3 Away games
- Villa are 16th in the Premier League, and bottom on Last 6 Form
- West Ham have won 4 of their last 6 games
- Villa have lost 6 games in a row, failing to score in 5
Burnley v Hull – Double Chance: Hull Win or Draw @ 11/20
- Burnley have conceded at least 2 goals in each of their last 5 games
- Burnley are yet to win a game this season (W0 D4 L6)
- Hull’s 2 wins this season have been against Bottom Half sides
- 9 of Hull’s last 10 Premier League wins have come v Bottom Half sides (90%)
- Bets on Burnley’s opponents to Win or Draw – Double Chance have paid out in 100% of their games this season
Recommended Bet:
Treble on the 3 bets above @ 3.90 with Bet365, Boylesports.
Also available @ 14/5+ (3.80+) in general.
Latest odds here
Two ways to cash-in on Man City – regardless of whether or not they win the game...
QPR v Man City (TV) – Man City -2 Corner Handicap
- Bets on QPR’s opponents to win the Most Corners have paid out in 8 of their 10 games (80%)
- City have won the Most Corners in 7 out of 10 games (70%)
- City have won the Most Corners in 7 of their last 8 games
- City have won the Most Corners in 80% of Away games
- Bets on City -2 Corner Handicap have paid out in 80% of their Away games
Recommended Bet:
Asian Handicap Corners: Man City -2.5 Corner Handicap @ 17/20 (1.85) with Bet365.
Corner Handicap bets will also be available with the likes of William Hill, BetVictor, Paddy Power and Skybet this weekend.
Latest odds here
QPR v Man City (TV) – Man City Card Handicap
- Bets on QPR’s opponents to receive the Most Cards/ Booking Points have paid out in 7 out of 10 games (70%)
- Bets on City to receive the Most Cards/ Booking Points have paid out in 80% of their Away games
- QPR average 1.4 Cards per Home game LESS than opponents
- City average 1.4 Cards per Away game MORE than opponents
Recommended Bet:
Man City 0 Card Handicap @ 11/8 (2.38) with Bet365.
This bet wins if City get more Cards than QPR.
Also available – look for City to win the Most Booking Points with William Hill.
Latest odds here
And last but not least, we’re happy to take odds of just below Even Money for this strong Cards trend...
Sunderland v Everton – Over 3.5 Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 8 out of 10 Everton games this season (80%)
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 80% of Sunderland Home games, and 7 out of 10 overall
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in each of Everton’s last 4 games
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in each of Sunderland’s last 5 games
- Sunderland Home games average 5.4 Total Cards
- Everton Away games average 4.6 Total Cards
Recommended Bet:
Over 3.5 Cards @ 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365.
Total Cards and Booking Points bets will also be available with the likes of William Hill, Paddy Power, Skybet and BetVictor this weekend.
Latest odds here
Eye-catcher – 5/1 for another Red Card at Old Trafford...
Every week – separate to our main Recommended Bets – we flag up a big price ‘Eye-catcher.’ Aiming to land big odds payouts from other bets & markets that our stats and research throw up, at odds of 5/1 and bigger...
This week the stats point us to an eye-catching price in the ‘Red Card in the match’ market...
Man Utd v Crystal Palace
We’re already betting on this one going Over 3.5 Cards (see Recommended Bets above). And the Red Card/ Sending Off stats are worthy of further attention...
- There have been 4 Red Cards shown in Man Utd’s last 6 games, and 3 Red Cards shown in Palace’s last 3 games
- There was a Red Card in this fixture last season
- No Premier League team have had more players Sent Off than Man Utd this calendar year (5)
This week’s Eye-catcher is:
‘Red Card in the match? – YES’ @ 5/1 with William Hill and Paddy Power.
Latest odds here
View Team Data and Head-2-Head stats on our site...
Remember you can also view team stats and all our Head-2-Head betting stats on your Prem10 website. Log-in with your email address and personal password at: www.Prem10.co.uk.
I’ll be back on Monday with the weekend results. Enjoy the games...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
