Tonight’s need-to-know stats - and 3 bets...
Tuesday 10th February 2015
In your Prem10 – Midweek email today:
- 10 games across tonight & tomorrow...
- This week’s need-to-know stats...
- Prem10 Picks – 3 bets...
The midweek fixture list kicks off with 4 games this evening, including Liverpool v Tottenham live on TV. There’s a history of goals in that one – see below for our stats & advice...
There are 10 games in total across tonight and tomorrow. We’ve done all the groundwork for you and gone through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to produce our stats that you need to know. The signs are good with plenty of high match-ups and strong trends on show.
We’re then looking to cash-in on the best value prices and markets on offer with our Prem10 Picks.
The stats you need to know...
Let’s get straight into the stats, starting with tonight’s live game on BT Sport...
Liverpool v Tottenham (TV) – Total Goals
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 8 of Tottenham’s last 9 Premier League games – and in each of their last 5 Away
- Liverpool have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 Home games
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of the last 5 meetings between these sides
This is historically a high-scoring Premier League fixture and Tottenham’s recent form in particular franks that stat. Odds of 8/11 (1.73) for Over 2.5 Goals show that the market expects a free scoring game, too. We’re after a better price than that and one of the league’s in-form strikers provides us with just that...
Liverpool v Tottenham (TV) – Anytime Scorer
- Harry Kane has scored 10 of Tottenham’s last 18 Premier League goals
- Kane has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 6 out of 9 Away appearances
- Backing Kane to Score at Anytime to level stakes at odds of 23/10 in every Spurs Away games this season has produced a 120% ROI
With goals expected in this game we like the 23/10 (3.30) price for man of the moment Harry Kane to get on the score-sheet once again. See Prem10 Picks below.
Arsenal v Leicester – Match Result
- Arsenal have won their last 5 Home games
- Arsenal have won 83% of Home games v Bottom Half sides this season
- Leicester have lost 7 of their last 10 Premier League games
No surprise that Arsenal are the 3/10 (1.30) Home Win favourite – the shortest price on tonight’s coupon in fact. Value is hard to come by in this one with the Arsenal HT/ FT win also odds-on at 8/13 (1.62) – a bet that has paid out in 4 of their last 5 at Home. No Picks for us at these prices.
Arsenal v Leicester – Corner Handicap
- Arsenal have won the Most Corners in 82% of Home games
- Arsenal –2 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 4 of their last 5 Home games
- Leicester have won the Most Corners in just 1 of their 12 Away games
The stats threaten total domination from Arsenal, but the -4, -5 and -6 Corner Handicaps on offer with the bookies this evening offer little room for us to manoeuvre.
Hull v Aston Villa – Total Goals
- Hull’s last 5 Home games have averaged 1.4 Total Goals
- Villa’s last 5 Away games have averaged 1.8 Total Goals
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Hull’s last 5 Home games
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Villa’s last 5 Away games – and 75% for the season
These are some of the strongest ‘low goals’ stats in the Premier League, and the market is aware of this with odds of just 8/13 (1.62) for Under 2.5 Goals. A strong stats match-up but not one that we’ll be betting on today.
Sunderland v QPR – Match Result
- QPR have lost 100% of Away games (11 out of 11)
- Sunderland have lost just 1 of their last 7 games v Bottom Half sides
QPR’s Away record can’t go without note, but the slightly odds-on price of 10/11 (1.91) for the Home Win is no bargain about a Sunderland side that have won just 2 of their last 10 Premier League games.
Man Utd v Burnley – Time of First Goal
- Time of First Goal – 27th Minute or Before bets have paid out in 4 of Man Utd’s last 5 Home games
- Time of First Goal – 27th Minute or Before bets have paid out in 4 of Burnley’s last 5 Away games
- There have been 2 or more goals scored in the First Half in 4 of Man Utd’s last 5 Home games
- There have been 2 more goals scored in the First Half in 4 of Burnley’s last 5 Away games
Interesting trend flagged up here with early goals in both teams’ recent games. The bookies have been a bit tight with their line here though, with BetVictor betting Before 25th Minute @ Evens. We’d have hoped to get a few more minutes for our money there so it’s a No Bet for us.
Southampton v West Ham – Total Goals
- 5 of Southampton’s last 6 games have been Under 2.5 Goals
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in Southampton’s last 3 Home games
- 7 of West Ham’s last 9 games have been Under 2.5 Goals
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in West Ham’s last 4 Away games
The markets make this a 50-50 game for Under of Over 2.5 Goals, with odds of 10/11 available for either option. Our stats make Under 2.5 Goals one of the bets of week though, which makes that price look good to us. See Prem10 Picks below.
Chelsea v Everton (TV) – Match Result
- Chelsea have won 91% of Home games (10 out of 11)
- Everton have lost 4 of their last 5 Away games
- Chelsea have won 4 of their last 5 games against Everton
Everything points to Chelsea here but 1/3 (1.33) for the Home Win is of no appeal.
West Brom v Swansea – Corner Handicap
- West Brom have won the Most Corners in 83% of Home games (10 out of 12)
- Bets on opponents to win the Most Corners have paid out in 73% of Swansea Away games (8 out of 11)
- West Brom –1 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in each of their last 5 Home games
Strong corner-winning stats from West Brom, but Swansea have won the Most Corners in their last 2 Away games against Bottom Half sides and that blot on the stats is enough to put us off backing West Brom at odds of 5/6 (1.83) with a -1 Corner Handicap.
Stoke v Man City – Match Result
- Man City have won just 1 of their last 6 Premier League games
- City have won just 1 of 4 Away games v Top Half sides this season
- Stoke have lost just 1 out of 5 Home games v Top Half sides
- Man City have only won 2 of the last 6 Premier League meetings with Stoke (W2 D3 L1)
- City have failed to win any of the 5 games they have played while Yaya Toure has been away at the African Cup of Nations
The stats paint a cautionary picture here – don’t go taking short odds of 8/11 (1.73) for the Man City Away Win.
Stoke v Man City – Team with Most Bookings
- Stoke have received the Most Cards/ Bookings in just 3 of their 11 Home games (27%)
- City have received the Most Cards/ Bookings in 75% of Away games, and in 4 of their last 5 Away
- City have received the First Card in each of their last 5 Away games
We’re been following this trend for a few weeks now and this looks another good chance to cash-in. Man City are available at odds-against in the ‘0’ Card Handicap, Bookings Match Bet or Team with Most Booking Points markets, at a standout 7/5 (2.40). See Prem10 Picks below.
Prem10 Picks...
This week’s Prem10 Picks are...
- Liverpool v Tottenham – Anytime Scorer – Harry Kane @ 23/10 with Ladbrokes
- Southampton v West Ham – Under 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 with Coral
- Stoke v Man City – Man City ‘0’ Card Handicap @ 7/5 with Bet365
Latest Premier League odds here
Enjoy the midweek games. I’ll be back on Thursday with an update on the midweek stats and results.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
