Your 5 Recommended Bets - including Man City v Arsenal...

Friday 16th January 2015

In your Prem10 – Recommended Bets email today:

• Your 5 Recommended Bets for the weekend...
• Super Sunday – Man City v Arsenal...
• 28/1 Eye-catcher...

Welcome to your Prem10 weekend email...

Plenty of strong match-ups on the stats for us this week, 5 of which make the grade for our Recommended Bets – including the Super Sunday game on Sky Sports between 2nd place Man City and 5th place Arsenal...

• Remember, we use the stats to find highly-rated bets with a 70%+ winning strike-rate. And we’re always aiming to double our money by betting at Evens or better on as many of our bets as possible.

Plus, the stats have also highlighted three away teams to look out for in the Goals and Match Results markets at combined odds of 28/1. See below for that 28/1 Eye-catcher.

Before we get started...

Missed the cut...

There are stacks of strong betting trends in the Premier League, but we don’t always get the chance to back them at decent odds or in the right market...

Here are the highly-rated bets that missed the cut this time:

• Aston Villa v Liverpool – Over 3.5 Cards is a 70% v 70% match-up on the Head-2-Head stats on our site, with that bet paying out in 8 of Villa’s last 10 games. But odds of just 8/13 (1.62) with Bet365 are too short for us.
  
  
• Tottenham v Sunderland – Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 7 Sunderland games in a row and 80% of their Away games. But at the time of writing Bet365 offer the only option available at an odds-on price of 4/5 (1.80).
  
  
• Newcastle v Southampton (TV) – First Half Total Goals – Under 1.5 Goals is the highest-rated bet of the week based purely on our Head-2-Head data (70% v 90% winning strike-rates). Odds of just 4/11 (1.36) price us out of that one, though. See below for our Recommended Bet on this game

• West Ham v Hull (TV) – West Ham to win the Most Corners has paid out in 73% of games v Bottom Half sides this season, and opponents have won the Most Corners in each of Hull's last 9 Away games. However odds of just 3/10 (1.30) for West Ham here are very short... whereas the Corner Handicap sets the bar too high at -3 Corners.

• Man City v Arsenal (TV) – Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 82% of Arsenal Away games and in 5 of City’s last 7 at Home. The bookies have raised the line to Over 4.5 Cards for this clash and although that bet has paid out in 8 of the last 10 meetings between these sides, odds of just 8/11 (1.73) @ Bet365 don’t appeal.

Those are 5 that didn’t make the cut based on price or the markets available. Here are our 5 bets that tick all the boxes and can be backed at double-your-money odds of Evens or better...

Your 5 Recommended Bets for the weekend...

We’re kicking off with 2 bets in the big game on Sunday afternoon...

Man City have won 70% of Home games this season and are odds-on to beat Arsenal – but we can cash-in on an 80% trend at a better price in the Corner Handicap market...

Man City v Arsenal (TV) – Corner Handicap

• Man City have won the Most Corners in 80% of Home games
• City -2 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 70% of Home games
• Man City -2 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 5 of their last 6 Home games (83%)
• Arsenal haven’t won the Most Corners in any of their last 5 league meetings with City, Home or Away
• City average 8.7 Corner For per Home game. Arsenal average 6.1 Corners For Away

Recommended Bet:

Man City -2 Corner Handicap @ 11/10 (2.10) with Bet365.

Corner Handicap bets will also be available between now and kick off with the likes of William Hill, Skybet, Paddy Power, BetVictor.

Latest odds here

City have one of the most profitable winning streaks in the league right now, and we’re looking to cash-in again this weekend...

Man City v Arsenal (TV) – Team with Most Booking Points

• Man City have landed Most Cards/ Booking Points bets in 5 of their last 6 games
• Arsenal have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 1 of their last 6 games
• Arsenal have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 1 of 5 Away games v Top Half sides this season
• Bets on Man City Most Cards/ Booking Points have paid out in 7 of the last 10 league meetings v Arsenal, Home and Away (70%), including each of the last 6 meetings

Recommended Bet:

Man City ‘0’ Card Handicap @ 15/8 (2.88) with Bet365.

Also available – check for Team with Most Booking Points and Booking Points Match Bets ahead of kick off with all the major bookies including Skybet, Stan James, William Hill.

Latest odds here

The recent form stats highlight Leicester as a clear pick at Home in the Corner Handicap market this weekend...

Leicester v Stoke – Corner Handicap

• Leicester have won the Most Corners in 5 of their last 7 Home games
• Leicester -1 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 5 of their last 7 at Home (71%)
• Leicester -2 Corner Handicap bets have also paid out in 5 of their last 7 at Home
• Stoke have only won the Most Corners in 1 of their 11 Away games
• Opponents have won the Most Corners in 4 of Stoke’s last 5 Away games
• Stoke average 3.4 Corners per Away game LESS than opponents

Recommended Bet:

Leicester -1 Corner Handicap @ 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365.

Leicester -1 Corner Handicap also available with BetVictor and Paddy Power.

Latest odds here

While the recent form stats say Leicester will win the Most Corners, they point to Stoke in the Cards & Bookings market...

Leicester v Stoke – Team with Most Booking Points

• Bets on opponents to receive the Most Cards/ Booking Points have paid out in 5 of the last 6 Leicester Home games
• Stoke Most Cards/ Booking Points bets have paid out in 4 of their last 5 Away games
• Leicester average 1.6 Cards For per Home game
• Stoke average 2.6 Cards For per Away game

Recommended Bet:

Team with Most Booking Points – Stoke @ 11/10 (2.10) with Skybet.

Also available, the same bet with a different name: Stoke ‘0’ Card Handicap @ 11/10 (2.10) with Bet365.

Most Booking Points and Booking Points Match Bets also available with Stan James and William Hill.

Latest odds here

The stats say goals will be at a premium in the Saturday night game on Sky Sports – Newcastle are without their top scorer Cisse, and Southampton have the best defensive record in the league...

Newcastle v Southampton (TV) – Highest Scoring Half

• 6 of Newcastle’s last 8 Home games have been 0-0 at Half Time
• Average First Goal Time in Newcastle Home games = 48 mins. Southampton Away games = 45 mins. Premier League average = 33 mins
• Highest Scoring Half – Second Half bets have paid out in 80% of Newcastle Home games
• The Second Half has been the Highest Scoring Half in 8 of the last 9 Newcastle Home games (89%)
• The Second Half has been the Highest Scoring Half in each of the last 4 Southampton Away games

Recommended Bet:

Highest Scoring Half – Second Half @ 23/20 (2.15) with BetVictor.

Also available @ 11/10 (2.10) or Evens (2.00) in general.

Latest odds here

View Team Data and Head-2-Head stats on our site...

Remember you can also view team stats and all our Head-2-Head betting stats on your Prem10 website. We’ll also be adding new Last 5 Games stats very soon. Log-in with your email address and personal password at: www.Prem10.co.uk.

I’ll be back on Monday with the latest results.

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone
Editor

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk