Your 7 Recommended Bets - and Chelsea @ 6/1...
Friday 17th October 2014
In your Prem10 – Recommended Bets email today:
- The Premier League returns...
- Your 7 Recommended Bets...
- NEW! Eye-catchers: Chelsea @ 6/1...
Welcome to your Prem10 weekend email. Every Friday we’re looking to cash-in on the Premier League’s highest-rated bets, based on the stats...
With the International break now out the way, we have a full schedule of 10 games on the fixture list this weekend – 6 of which feature in our Recommended Bets (see below).
Our betting approach...
All in all we have 7 Recommended Bets for the weekend that meet our bet criteria:
- We are ONLY interested in stats and bets that have a 70%+ winning strike-rate
- We are ONLY interested in betting at odds of around Evens or bigger. So every winning bet you have will double your money or better
- Giving you the edge... We’ll be betting at 50-50 odds, on bets that the stats say have a 70%+ chance of winning
Ones that didn’t make the cut…
Arsenal are big favourites to beat Hull this weekend, but odds of just 2/5 for the Home win are too short for us to take. Hull have lost 10 of their last 11 Away games v Top Half sides, but Arsenal have only won 1 of their last 6 league games – so we’re giving them a miss this time.
Elsewhere, the bookies have priced us out of backing Man City to win the -2 Corner Handicap for what would be the 6th game in a row. Opponents Tottenham match up well here but odds of just 4/7 for City -2 Corner Handicap are tight.
Not to worry though – we have plenty of strong bets available at good prices this weekend. Including 2 selections for that City v Tottenham game...
This weekend’s Recommended Bets...
Here are your 7 Recommended Bets. Starting with the live game on Saturday lunchtime...
Man City v Tottenham (TV) – City -1 Match Handicap
- Man City won 3 out of 4 Home games v Top 5 sides last season (75%), and 8 out of 9 v Top Half sides (89%)
- Tottenham lost 3 out of 4 Away games v Top 5 sides last season (75%) – winning just 1 out of 8 overall
- Bets on Man City –1 Match Handicap (to win by more than 1 goal) have paid out in 9 of their last 10 Premier League wins (90%)
- Tottenham were beaten by more than 1 goal in 6 out of 8 games v Top 5 sides last season (75%)
Recommended Bet:
Man City -1 Match Handicap @ 6/5 with Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, BetVictor.
Latest odds here
Man City v Tottenham (TV) – City +1 Card Handicap
- Bets on City to win the Most Cards/ Booking Points have paid out in 6 out of 7 games this season (86%)
- Tottenham have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 2 of 7 games (29%)
- City average 1 Yellow Card per Home game MORE than opponents. Tottenham average 1 Yellow Card per Away game LESS than opponents
Recommended Bet:
Man City +1 Card Handicap @ 10/11 with Bet365.
This bet pays out if City receive more Cards than Tottenham OR the same amount of Cards.
Also available, for bigger odds – City to be Team with the Most Booking Points @ 11/5 with Skybet, 9/5 with William Hill.
Latest odds here
We’re looking to cash-in on a strong Corners trend with West Ham...
Burnley v West Ham – West Ham to win the Most Corners
- Bets on West Ham to win the Most Corners have paid out in 86% of games this season (6 out of 7)
- West Ham are winning an average of 4.4 Corners per Away game MORE than opponents
- West Ham are winning an average of 9.7 Corners For per Away game. Burnley at Home are winning an average of 4.0
Recommended Bet:
Team with Most Corners – West Ham @ Evens with William Hill or 20/21 with Bet365.
Latest odds here
Double your money on league leaders Chelsea winning this weekend...
Crystal Palace v Chelsea – Chelsea -1 Match Handicap
- Chelsea have won 6 out of 7 games so far (86%)
- Bets on Chelsea –1 Match Handicap (to win by more than 1 goal) have paid out in all 6 of their wins (100%)
- Palace have conceded 2 or more goals in 5 of their 7 games (71%)
- Chelsea have scored 2 or more goals in 6 of their 7 games (86%)
Recommended Bet:
Chelsea -1 Match Handicap @ 6/5 with Skybet, 23/20 with Bet365 or 11/10 in general.
Latest odds here
Cash-in on Leicester’s 100% record for 2nd Half goals...
Newcastle v Leicester – Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half
- Bets on the 2nd Half to be to the Highest Scoring Half have paid out in 2 out of 3 Newcastle Home games
- Bets on the 2nd Half to be the Highest Scoring Half have paid out in all 3 Leicester Away games (100%)
- 75% of goals scored in Newcastle Home games have been in the 2nd Half
- 100% of goals scored in Leicester Away games have been in the 2nd Half
Recommended Bet:
Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half @ Evens with Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, BetVictor, Skybet.
Latest odds here
We’re targeting another 100% trend in this game...
Southampton v Sunderland – Under 10.5 Corners
- Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in all 3 Southampton Home games this season (100%), and 7 of the last 10 (70%)
- Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in all 3 Sunderland Away games this season (100%), and 8 of the last 10 (80%)
- Southampton Home games average 8.3 Total Corners
- Sunderland Away games average 8.3 Total Corners
Recommended Bet:
Under 11 Corners @ 4/5 with Bet365 (Alternative Corners market), or Under 10.5 Corners @ 31/40 with BetVictor.
The odds don’t quite reach our Even Money target here, but the stats are strong and we’re happy to take the prices available for this one.
Latest odds here
And in the Sunday lunchtime live TV game, Liverpool to receive the most Bookings is the standout bet...
QPR v Liverpool (TV) – Liverpool Most Booking Points
- QPR’s opponents have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 5 of their 7 games (71%)
- Liverpool’s opponents have only received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 2 of their 7 games
- QPR haven’t received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in any of their 3 Home games (100%), and in just 1 of 7 games overall
- QPR receive an average of 1 Yellow Card per Home game. Liverpool average 2 Yellow Cards per Away game
Recommended Bet:
Most Booking Points – Liverpool @ 29/20 with William Hill, Skybet or 7/5 with Bet365.
Latest odds here
NEW! Eye-catchers: Chelsea @ 6/1...
We’re adding a new feature to your weekend email this week – Eye-catchers– where we aim to land big odds payouts from other bets & markets that our stats and research throw up, separate to our main Recommended Bets.
These will always be available at appealing prices, 5/1 and bigger – and are sure to spice up the weekly coupons. At those prices, we’ll need an average of just 1 in 5 to win in order to make money over the course of the season.
Our first Eye-catcher takes us to the weekend ‘Top Scoring Team’ market, where top-of-the-table Chelsea are the standout pick on the stats...
Weekend Premier League – Top Scoring Team – Chelsea @ 6/1
- Chelsea are the top scorers in the Premier League this season. They have scored 2 or more goals in 6 of their 7 games
- Chelsea have the league’s top scorer in Diego Costa (9 goals in 7 games)
- Chelsea have landed a payout in this market in 3 out of 7 weekends so far (2 outright wins, one 3-way dead heat). Producing a 133% ROI if backed to level stakes @ 6/1 each week (£93 profit to £10 level stakes)
This week’s Eye-catcher is:
Chelsea to be the Top Scoring Team in the Premier League This Weekend @ 13/2 with Bet365, 6/1 Ladbrokes or 11/2 Paddy Power.
Latest odds here
View Team Data and Head-2-Head stats on our site...
Remember you can also view live scores and match stats, and all our Head-2-Head betting stats, on your Prem10 website. Log-in with your email address and personal password at: www.Prem10.co.uk.
New this week – we’ve just added a Previous Seasons page where you can view all our stats and bet categories for teams last season and beyond. Giving you a comprehensive database of historical Premier League form at your fingertips.
I’ll be back on Monday with an update on our weekend bet results. Enjoy the games...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
