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Results - weekend profits, and Leicester keep up 100% record...
Monday 20th October 2014
In your Prem10 – Results email today:
- Recommended Bets – Weekend Results...
- Leicester keep up 100% record...
- This weekend – Man Utd and Chelsea do battle...
An entertaining weekend in the Premier League, capped off with Liverpool landing our Most Bookings bet in the Sunday afternoon game at QPR...
And while some of the weekend goings-on were impossible to predict... 4 Penalty kicks at Man City (2 missed!)... Southampton winning 8-0... 4 own goals... the stats did their job and led us to a profit from our Recommended Bets (24% ROI, see below). With the likes of Man City, West Ham, Leicester and Liverpool producing winning bets...
Weekend results
The stats led us to 7 Recommended Bets that met our criteria:
- We only bet on the highest-rated outcomes, based on the stats (we only bet on 70%+ statistical trends)
- And we only bet at odds of around Evens or better, ensuring a double-your-money payout from each winning bet
For full details of each bet, view Friday’s email on our site here.
Man City v Tottenham – City -1 Match Handicap
Final Score: Man City 4 Tottenham 1
Recommended Bet:
Man City -1 Match Handicap @ 6/5 – WON
Man City v Tottenham – City +1 Card Handicap
Cards result = City 1 Tottenham 4
Recommended Bet:
Man City +1 Card Handicap @ 10/11 – LOST
Burnley v West Ham – West Ham to win the Most Corners
Final Score: Burnley 1 West Ham 3
Corners result = Burnley 5 West Ham 7
Recommended Bet:
Team with Most Corners – West Ham @ Evens – WON
Crystal Palace v Chelsea - Chelsea -1 Match Handicap
Final Score: Palace 1 Chelsea 2
Recommended Bet:
Chelsea -1 Match Handicap @ 6/5 – LOST
Newcastle v Leicester – Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half
Final Score: Newcastle 1 Leicester 0
Half Time Score: 0-0 (goal time 71 mins)
Recommended Bet:
Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half @ Evens – WON
Southampton v Sunderland – Under 10.5 Corners
Final Score: Southampton 8 Sunderland 0
Corners result = 11 corners
Recommended Bet:
Under 11 Corners @ 4/5 – LOST
QPR v Liverpool – Liverpool Most Booking Points
Final Score: QPR 2 Liverpool 3
Booking Points result = QPR 20 pts (2 yellow cards) Liverpool 30 pts (3 yellow cards)
Recommended Bet:
Most Booking Points – Liverpool @ 29/20 – WON
- Our 7 bets produced 4 winning payouts – giving 1.65 points profit to level stakes, for a 24% Return on Investment (ROI).
Taking a closer look at the stats....
Ones that didn’t make the cut...
Our two bets that didn’t make the cut in Friday’s email proved justified. We earmarked Arsenal to beat Hull @ 2/5 as too short, considering Arsenal had won just 1 of their previous 6 league games (result: 2-2 draw).
And while the stats pointed heavily to Man City -2 Corner Handicap against Tottenham, that bet got the thumbs down based on stingy odds of just 4/7. We made the right move there, as Tottenham went on to win the Most Corners, 4-3.
One corner away, one minute away...
Our Recommended Bets made a profit overall, but it would have been a lot more if it wasn’t for these two ‘near misses’: Southampton got more goals (8) than corners (5) v Southampton, but a total of 11 corners in the game was one too many as far as our Under 10.5 Corners bet was concerned. And Palace scored a last-minute consolation goal to take down our Recommended Bet on Chelsea -1 Match Handicap.
Trends that did continue include...
Leicester keep up their 100% record...
100% of goals scored in Leicester Away games have come in the 2nd Half. That stat gave us a winner in their game at Newcastle on Saturday - bets on the 2nd Half to be the Highest Scoring Half have now paid out in all 4 Leicester Away games.
City dominant, West Ham corner kings...
Man City have now won 9 of their last 10 games v Top Half sides – and 10 of their last 11 wins overall have been by more than 1 goal, landing the -1 Match Handicap bet. West Ham have now landed Most Corners bets in 7 out of 8 games this season (88%).
Just a few examples above, then, of some of the strong trends we look to cash-in on each weekend. And as more form goes in the book, the stats and trends will only get stronger.
Eye-catchers update – Southampton hit 8...
Our first weekend Eye-catcher pick – a big-price bet flagged up by the stats – didn’t give a return. Our stats research highlighted Chelsea @ 6/1 to be the weekend’s Top Scoring Team. Chelsea kept up their record of scoring at least 2 goals per game (7 times out of 8 now) – but this market was settled by Southampton putting 8 (EIGHT!) past Sunderland.
We’ll be on the lookout for more Eye-catchers this weekend – including possible contenders for a 2-2 Correct Score...
The 2-2 score continues to be the most profitable score-line in the Premier League, having now occurred 11 times (after Arsenal and Hull drew 2-2 on Saturday). Paying out at average odds of 14/1 each time, backing the 2-2 Correct Score to level £10 stakes in every Premier League game this season (79 games) has produced £860 profit. Applying the same tactic to any other ‘draw’ result (0-0, 1-1 etc) would have lost money.
Lookout for this week’s Eye-catcher stats in your Friday email, along with our Recommended Bets...
Coming up – Man Utd and Chelsea do battle this weekend...
The weekend coupon is rounded off tonight with West Brom v Man Utd live on Sky Sports. Then at the weekend we have another full schedule of 10 games to look forward to...
Including Man Utd v Chelsea live on TV – traditionally one of the biggest games on the Premier League fixture list, and one that has seen plenty of yellow and red cards in recent years. In fact, there have been 4 red cards shown in the last 4 league meetings between these sides. We’ll be looking in detail at all the stats for all the games in your weekend email.
I’ll be back at 1.00pm on Friday with your weekend Recommended Bets email.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk
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