Your 8 Recommended Bets - and a 12/1 Eye-catcher...
Friday 21st November 2014
In your Prem10 – Recommended Bets email today:
- Your 8 Recommended Bets...
- Plus – a 12/1 Eye-catcher for Arsenal v Man Utd...
Welcome to your Prem10 weekend email...
Good news! The International break is over and we now have solid back-to-back weeks of Premier League fixtures to look forward to over the winter months...
This weekend’s big game is Arsenal v Man Utd, live on TV on Saturday evening – see below for the standout stats in that one, including a 12/1 Eye-catcher in the First Player Carded market.
The stats have led us to a total of 8 Recommended Bets this week...
- Remember, we use the stats to find bets with a 70%+ winning strike-rate – and we’re always aiming to double our money by betting at Evens or better on as many of our bets as possible.
Ones that didn’t make the cut…
See below for our 8 bet selections. And here are a couple of 100% trends that missed the cut based on team news and price...
- QPR have lost 100% of their Away games so far, and travel to Newcastle who have won 4 games in a row. But Newcastle’s injury problems mean we’ve avoiding the Home win at odds of 5/6.
- Chelsea have won 100% of their Home games, but odds of just 1/4 to beat West Brom are too short – especially when the Premier League head-to-head records tell us that Chelsea have won just 1 of their last 5 games v West Brom.
Plenty of strong bets DO make the cut though, including in that Chelsea game...
This weekend’s Recommended Bets...
Here are your 8 Recommended Bets. Starting with the big game at Arsenal...
Arsenal v Man Utd (TV) – Total Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 80% of Arsenal Home games, and 91% of their games overall (10 out of 11)
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 73% of Man Utd games this season
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 6 of Man Utd’s last 7 games
- Arsenal Home games average 5.6 Total Cards
- Over 5.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of the last 6 games between these sides
- Over 5.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of both teams’ last 6 games
Recommended Bet:
Asian Total Cards – Over 5.5 Cards @ Evens (2.00) with Bet365.
See our Guide to the Bookies for more bookies that offer Cards and Bookings bets.
Latest odds here
Cash-in on a West Ham’s 100% trend this weekend...
Everton v West Ham - Total Goals
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 80% of Everton Home games
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 100% of West Ham Away games (5 out of 5)
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 73% of West Ham games this season
- Everton have failed to keep a Clean Sheet in 73% of their games
- Both teams have scored in 100% of West Ham Away games
Recommended Bet:
Over 2.5 Goals @ 3/4 (1.75) with BetVictor.
Also available @ 8/11 (1.73) with Ladbrokes and Bet365.
Latest odds here
Here’s how to cash-in on league leaders Chelsea...
Chelsea v West Brom – Highest Scoring Half
- Bets on the 2nd Half to be the Highest Scoring Half have paid out in 80% of Chelsea Home games, and in 73% of their games overall
- Bets on the 2nd Half to be the Highest Scoring Half have paid out in each of West Brom’s last 3 Away games
- There has been 1 goal or less scored in the 1st Half in 80% of Chelsea Home games and 80% of West Brom Away games
- Chelsea have conceded just 1 goal in the 1st Half at Home this season
- West Brom haven’t scored in the 1st Half in any of their 5 Away games
Recommended Bet:
Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half @ 23/20 (2.15) with BetVictor.
Also available @ Evens (2.00) in general.
Latest odds here
Man City v Swansea - Total Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 3 of City’s last 4 games
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 6 of Swansea’s last 7 games
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in each of City’s last 3 Home games, and Swansea’s last 3 Away games
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 80% of Swansea Away games
- City average 2.6 Cards For per Home game. Swansea average 3.6 Cards For per Away game
Recommended Bet:
Asian Total Cards – Over 3.5 Cards @ 77/100 (1.77) with Bet365.
See our Guide to the Bookies for more bookies that offer Cards and Bookings bets.
Latest odds here
Crystal Palace v Liverpool (TV) - Total Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 80% of Palace Home games
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 80% of Liverpool Away games
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 9 out of 11 Palace games overall this season (82%)
- Palace average 2.0 Cards For per Home game. Liverpool average 2.4 Cards per Away game
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in each of Palace’s last 4 games, and in each of Liverpool’s last 5 games
Recommended Bet:
Asian Total Cards – Over 3.5 Cards @ 3/4 (1.75) with Bet365.
See our Guide to the Bookies for more bookies that offer Cards and Bookings bets.
Latest odds here
The Goal Time stats point clearly to a bet at Stoke on Saturday...
Stoke v Burnley - Time of First Goal
- Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute bets have paid out in 80% of Stoke Home games
- Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute bets have paid out in 3 of Stoke’s last 4 games
- Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute bets have paid out in 5 of Burnley’s last 6 games
- In 8 of Burnley’s last 9 games there have been No Goals scored Before the 27th Minute
- Average First Goal Time in Stoke Home games = 39 mins. Burnley Away games = 31 mins
Recommended Bet:
Time of First Goal – During or After Minute 27 @ 21/20 (2.05) with BetVictor.
Also available – After 28th Minute @ 20/21 (1.95) with Boylesports.
Latest odds here
Hull v Tottenham (TV) - Total Corners
- Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 80% of Hull Home games
- Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 80% of Tottenham Away games
- Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 73% of Tottenham games this season
- Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in each of Hull’s last 4 Home games
- Hull Home games average 11.4 Total Corners. Tottenham Away games average 12.6 Total Corners
Recommended Bet:
Asian Total Corners – Over 10.5 Corners @ 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365.
Also available – check for Over 10.5 Corners bets with BetVictor.
Latest odds here
Second in the table Southampton match up well in the Win To Nil market against Aston Villa...
Aston Villa v Southampton (TV) - To Win To Nil
- Villa have lost 5 of their last 6 games. Southampton have won 8 of their last 9 games
- Villa have lost their last 3 Home games. Southampton have won 3 of their last 4 Away games
- Southampton have won 73% of their games this season
- Villa have failed to score in 6 of their last 7 games. Southampton have kept 4 Clean Sheets in a row, winning To Nil each time
- Villa have the worst scoring record in the Football League. Southampton have the best defensive record in the Football League
- Bets on Southampton To Win To Nil have paid out in each of their last 4 games
- 83% of Villa’s defeats have been To Nil
Recommended Bet:
Southampton – To Win To Nil @ 9/5 (2.80) with BetVictor, Betway, Boylesports.
Also available @ 7/4 (2.75) in general.
Latest odds here
Eye-catchers – at 8/1 and 12/1...
Every week – separate to our main Recommended Bets – we flag up big price ‘Eye-catchers.’ Aiming to land big odds payouts from other bets & markets that our stats and research throw up, at odds of 5/1 and bigger...
This week the stats point us to the First Player Carded and Correct Score markets...
Arsenal v Man Utd
5.30pm Saturday – live on Sky Sports
The stats say to expect cards in this game (see above) – and one player stands out in particular...
- Calum Chambers is the most Booked player in the Premier League this season – with 6 Yellow Cards to his name
- Chambers has been Booked 6 times in 8 Premier League starts for Arsenal (75% of games), landing First Player Carded bets on 2 occasions
- Backing Chambers for the First Booking at 12/1 to level stakes in all 8 of his starts this season has produced a 225% Return on Investment
This week’s first Eye-catcher is:
First Player Carded – Calum Chambers @ 12/1 with BetFred, or 10/1 with BetVictor.
Latest odds here
And in the Monday night game...
Aston Villa v Southampton
8.00pm Monday – live on Sky Sports
Following on from our Recommended Bet on Southampton To Win To Nil (see above), one score-line stands out in the Correct Score market...
- 5 of Villa’s 6 defeats have been by the 2-0 or 3-0 score-line
- 75% of Southampton’s wins have been To Nil
- Villa Home games average 2.2 Total Goals
- Southampton Away games average 2.0 Total Goals
This week’s second Eye-catcher is:
Correct Score: Southampton to win 2-0 @ 8/1 with BetVictor or 7/1 in general.
Latest odds here
View Team Data and Head-2-Head stats on our site...
Remember you can also view team stats and all our Head-2-Head betting stats on your Prem10 website. Log-in with your email address and personal password at: www.Prem10.co.uk.
I’ll be back on Tuesday with the weekend results (Villa v Southampton play on Monday night). Enjoy the games...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
