Your 5 Boxing Day bets - and a 9/1 Christmas cracker...

Wednesday 24th December 2014

In your Prem10 – Recommended Bets email today:

• Your 5 Recommended Bets for Boxing Day...
• Plus – a 9/1 Eye-catcher...
• 30 games over Christmas...

The Christmas football begins with a full programme of Premier League games on Friday – Boxing Day. Including Chelsea v West Ham, Man Utd v Newcastle and Arsenal v QPR live on TV...

The stats have led us to 5 Recommended Bets for the Boxing Day games...

• Remember, we use the stats to find highly-rated bets with a 70%+ winning strike-rate – and we’re always aiming to double our money by betting at Evens or better on as many of our bets as possible.

Before we get started...

Missed the cut...

There are stacks of strong betting trends in the Premier League, but we don’t always get the chance to back them at decent odds or in the right market. Here are three that missed the cut this time...

• Chelsea v West Ham – Chelsea have won 100% of Home games this season, but West Ham have only lost 2 out of 8 on the road – and both sides are neck and neck in the Last 6 Form table (W4 D1 L1). Chelsea to win @ 4/11 is too short for us
  
  
• Arsenal v QPR – QPR have lost 100% of Away games so far, and Arsenal have won 4 in a row at Home v newly-promoted sides. But again, odds of just 3/10 for the Home win are too short for us to bet on
  
  
• Arsenal v QPR – Arsenal have won the Most Corners in 88% of Home games and landed -3 Corner Handicap bets in 75%. But the bookies have priced this one out of contention, asking Arsenal to cover a huge -6 Corner Handicap (something they’ve only managed in 3 out of 8 Home games)

Here are our 5 bets that did make the cut...

Your 5 Recommended Bets for Boxing Day...

We’re kicking off with a 2/1 Double on the week’s 2 highest-rated Cards bets...

Double – Total Cards

Burnley v Liverpool – Over 3.5 Cards @ 8/11

• Over 3.5 Cards have paid out in 75% of Liverpool Away games
• 5 of the last 6 Burnley games have been Over 3.5 Cards
• 8 of the last 10 Liverpool games have been Over 3.5 Cards
• Burnley Home games average 4.5 Total Cards
• Liverpool Away games average 4.8 Total Cards

Man Utd v Newcastle (TV) – Over 3.5 Cards

• Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 89% of Man Utd Home games (8 out of 9)
• Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 76% of Newcastle games
• Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in each of Man Utd’s last 7 Home games, and in 5 of their last 6 overall
• Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in each of Newcastle’s last 6 games
• Man Utd Home games average 5.7 Total Cards. Newcastle Away games average 4.1 Total Cards

Recommended Bet:

Double on the 2 bets above @ 2/1+ (3.00+) with Bet365.

Also available – Total Cards or Booking Points bets will also be available on match-day with the likes of William Hill, Paddy Power, BetVictor, Skybet, BetBright, Stan James – although not all bookies accept Doubles.

Latest odds here

Burnley have one of the strongest ‘low Corners’ records in the league – and opponents Liverpool match up well for a bet here...

Burnley v Liverpool – Total Corners 

• Under 9.5 Corners bets have paid out in 89% of Burnley Home games (8 out of 9)
• Under 9.5 Corners bets have paid out in each of Burnley’s last 5 Home games
• Under 9.5 Corners bets have paid out in 4 Liverpool’s last 5 Away games
• Burnley win an average of 3.8 Corners per Home game
• Liverpool win an average of 4.1 Corners per Away game

Recommended Bet:

Under 9.5 Corners @ 11/10 (2.10) with BetVictor, Stan James.

Also available @ 21/20 (2.05) with BetBright. Under 10 Corners @ 21/20 with Bet365, 19/20 (1.95) with William Hill.

Latest odds here

Hull have a dreadful Corner-winning record, especially away from home, and Sunderland are a solid pick for us in the Corner Handicap market...

Sunderland v Hull – Corner Handicap

• Sunderland have won the Most Corners in 4 out of 4 Home games v sides outside the Top 6 this season
• Bets on Hull’s opponents to win the Most Corners have paid out in 76% of their games (13 out of 17 overall)
• Bets on Hull’s opponents to win the Most Corners have paid out in 6 of their last 7 games
• Hull average 4.0 Corners per Away game LESS than opponents
• Bets on Hull’s opponents -1 Corner Handicap have paid out in 6 of their last 7 Away games

Recommended Bet:

Sunderland -1 Corner Handicap @ 20/23 (1.87) with BetVictor.

Also available @ 17/20 (1.85) with William Hill, or 5/6 (1.83) with Paddy Power. Corner Handicap bets also available with Bet365 and Skybet.

Latest odds here

Villa are proving one of the most reliable Under 2.5 Goals bets in the Premier League – we’re looking to cash-in on them again on Friday afternoon...

Swansea v Aston Villa – Total Goals

• Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 78% of Villa Away games (7 out of 9)
• Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 6 of Swansea’s 7 games v Bottom Half sides this season
• Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 6 of Villa’s last 7 games, and in each of their last 5 Away games
• Villa have failed to score in 5 of their 9 Away games

Recommended Bet:

Under 2.5 Goals @ 5/6 (1.83) with Ladbrokes or Skybet.

Also available @ 4/5 (1.80) with BetVictor, or 8/11+ (1.73+) in general.

Latest odds here

The Boxing Day fixture list finishes off with Arsenal v QPR live on BT Sport at 5.30pm Friday. The stats make this the ‘Time of First Goal’ bet of the day...

Arsenal v QPR (TV) – Time of First Goal 

• Time of First Goal – After 24th Minute bets have paid out in 75% of Arsenal Home games (6 out of 8)
• Time of First Goal – After 24th Minute bets have paid out in 75% of QPR Away games
• Average First Goal Time in Arsenal Home games = 45 mins
• Average First Goal Time in QPR Away games = 40 mins
• 16 of Arsenal’s last 20 goals have been scored in the 2nd Half (80%)

Recommended Bet:

Time of First Goal – During or After Minute 24 @ 11/10 (2.10) with BetVictor.

Also available – After 23rd Minute @ 10/11 (1.91) with Boylesports, or After 21st Minute @ 5/6 (1.83) with Paddy Power.

Latest odds here

View Team Data and Head-2-Head stats on our site...

Remember you can also view team stats and all our Head-2-Head betting stats on your Prem10 website. Log-in with your email address and personal password at: www.Prem10.co.uk.

30 games over Christmas...

There are a total of 30 Premier League games to be played between now and New Year’s Day – and we’ve got them all covered...

I’ll be back on Saturday, 27th December with the latest results – and your Recommended Bets for Sunday’s games.

Have a very Merry Christmas...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone
Editor

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk