Your 8 Recommended Bets - and a 40/1 Eye-catcher...
Friday 24th October 2014
In your Prem10 – Recommended Bets email today:
- Your 8 Recommended Bets...
- Plus – a 40/1 Eye-catcher...
Welcome to your Prem10 weekend email. Every Friday we’re looking to cash-in on the Premier League’s highest-rated bets, based on the stats...
This weekend there are 5 games live on TV, including West Ham v Man City on Saturday lunchtime and Man Utd v Chelsea on Sunday afternoon. See below for bets on both games.
The stats say there will be plenty of goals in the Premier League this weekend, and with them the chance to cash-in on the Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals markets. We also have bets covering the Corners and Goal Time markets...
Our betting approach...
All in all we have 8 Recommended Bets for the weekend that meet our bet criteria:
- We are ONLY interested in stats and bets that have a 70%+ winning strike-rate
- We are ONLY interested in betting at odds of around Evens or bigger. So every winning bet you have will double your money or better
- Giving you the edge... We’ll be betting at 50-50 odds, on bets that the stats say have a 70%+ chance of winning
Ones that didn’t make the cut…
Plenty of bets did make the cut this week (see below) – but here are 3 that just missed out, and the reasons why...
Bets on Stoke to receive the Most Booking Points have paid out in 4 of their last 5 games, and they average 2 Yellow Cards per game more than opponents Southampton – but the bookies have priced us out of this one with Stoke available at just 4/9 with William Hill. That’s too short for us to get involved.
Bets on Over 3.5 Cards have paid out in 100% of Arsenal games so far, but Bet365 have set the marker for their game at Sunderland a little too high for us, at 4.5 Cards.
The same goes for Man Utd v Chelsea – Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 8 of their last 10 meetings, but the bookies have hiked the line up to 5.5 Cards for Sunday’s game. We are betting on that game in the Match Result market, though...
This weekend’s Recommended Bets...
Here are your 8 Recommended Bets. Starting with the big one at Old Trafford...
Man Utd v Chelsea (TV) – Chelsea to win
- Chelsea are the only unbeaten side in the Premier League (W7 D1 L0)
- Chelsea have won 6 games in a row in all competitions
- Man Utd’s lost 7 out of 10 games v Top 5 sides last season (70%)
- Chelsea have won 8 of their last 10 games v last season’s Top 5 sides (80%)
Recommended Bet:
Chelsea to win @ 6/4 (2.50) with Stan James, Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports or 7/5 in general.
Latest odds here
And in the Sunday lunchtime live game...
Burnley v Everton (TV) – Under 11 Corners
- Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 3 of Burnley’s 4 Home games (75%)
- Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 7 of Everton’s 8 games this season (88%)
- Burnley at Home win an average of just 4.3 Corner per game. Everton Away win an average of just 3.8 Corners per game
Recommended Bet:
Under 11 Corners @ 21/10 (2.05) with Bet365.
Also available – Under 10.5 Corners @ 31/40 (1.78) with BetVictor.
Latest odds here
Two bets stand out at Sunderland...
Sunderland v Arsenal – Both Teams to Score
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 3 out of 4 Sunderland Home games (75%)
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 75% of Arsenal games this season
- Arsenal have only kept 1 clean sheet in 8 games this season. Sunderland have kept just 2 clean sheets
Recommended Bet:
Both Teams to Score @ 10/11 (1.91) with William Hill.
Also available @ 17/20 (1.85) with BetVictor, 5/6 (1.83) with Boylesports, Winner.com.
Latest odds here
Sunderland v Arsenal – Sunderland +1 Corner Handicap
- Sunderland have won the Most Corners in 3 out of 4 Home games this season, and in 8 of their last 10 at Home (80%)
- Arsenal have only won the Most Corners in 1 out of 4 Away games this season
- Sunderland are winning an average of 6.8 Corners per Home game. Arsenal Away average 5.0
- Bets on Sunderland +1 Corner Handicap paid out in 4 out of 5 Home games v Top 5 sides last season (80%)
Recommended Bet:
Sunderland +1 Corner Handicap @ Evens (2.00) with Paddy Power.
Also available @ 19/20 (1.95) with BetVictor, 10/11 (1.91) with William Hill, Skybet.
Latest odds here
We’ll looking to cash-in on Leicester’s 100% record again...
Swansea v Leicester (TV) – Time of First Goal
- Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute bets have paid out in 100% of Leicester Away games
- 100% of goals scored in Leicester Away games have come in the 2nd Half
- Swansea have kept a 1st Half Clean Sheet in 3 out of 4 Home games
- Leicester have failed to score in 3 of their 4 Away games (75%)
Recommended Bet:
Time of First Goal – During or After Minute 28 @ 23/20 (2.15) with BetVictor.
Also available – After 27th Minute @ 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power.
Latest odds here
- Want a bigger price? Paddy Power’s Timecast market offers 9/4 (3.25) for Swansea to Score the First Goal After Minute 27.
Two bets standout at West Brom on Saturday...
West Brom v Crystal Palace – Over 2.5 Goals
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 3 of West Brom’s 4 Home games (75%)
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 3 of Palace’s 4 Away games (75%)
- West Brom Home games average 3.5 Total Goals. Palace Away games average 4.1 Total Goals
Recommended Bet:
Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (2.10) with BetVictor.
Also available @ Evens (2.00) with Bet365, Betfred, Skybet, Coral, Paddy Power.
Latest odds here
West Brom v Crystal Palace – West Brom -2 Corner Handicap
- West Brom have won the Most Corners in 3 out of 4 Home games (75%). With –2 Corner Handicap bets paying out in all 3
- Palace have only won the Most Corners in 2 out of 8 games this season
- Palace won the Most Corners in just 3 of 19 Away games last season
- West Brom average 2.2 Corners per Home game MORE than opponents
- Palace average 4.7 Corners per Away game LESS than opponents
Recommended Bet:
West Brom –2 Corner Handicap @ Evens (2.00) with BetVictor.
Also available @ 19/20 (1.95) with William Hill.
Latest odds here
And last but not least – cash-in on these Both Teams to Score stats with a 4/1 Treble...
Both Teams to Score – Treble
West Ham v Man City (TV) – Both Teams to Score @ 4/6
- West Ham have scored in 7 of their 8 games (88%), with Both Teams to Score bets paying out in 75%
- Man City have scored 2 or more goals in 6 out of 8 games this season (75%)
- West Ham have kept just 1 clean sheet in 8 games this season. City have kept just 2 clean sheets
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 4 of City’s last 5 games in all comps
Liverpool v Hull – Both Teams to Score @ 5/6
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 75% of both teams’ games
- Liverpool have kept just 1 clean sheet all season
- Hull have scored in every game (8 out of 8)
Man Utd v Chelsea (TV) – Both Teams to Score @ 4/6
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 75% of Man Utd games, and 100% of Chelsea Away games
- Man Utd Home games average 3.3 Total Goals. Chelsea Away games average 4.5 Total Goals
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these sides (70%)
Recommended Bet:
A Treble on the 3 bets above @ 4/1 (5.00) with Ladbrokes.
Also available @ 19/5 (4.80) with BetVictor, Betway, Bet365.
Latest odds here
A 40/1 Eye-catcher...
Every week we’ll be looking to cash-in on the stats – separate to our main Recommended Bets – with a big price ‘Eye-catcher.’ Aiming to land big odds payouts from other bets & markets that our stats and research throw up, at odds of 5/1 and bigger...
This week a huge price stands out in the ‘Win & Both Teams to Score’ market...
Win & Both Teams to Score – Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea @ 40/1
The three games below all feature in our Recommended Bets treble on Both Teams to Score (see above). By going one step further and adding in teams to win, the prices get really tasty...
- Liverpool have won 10 of their last 12 Home games v last season’s Bottom Half sides. The Win & Both Teams to Score bet has paid out in both of Hull’s defeats this season, and 3 of Liverpool’s 4 wins
- Man City have won 3 games in a row. The Win & Both Teams to Score bet has paid out in 3 of their last 4 wins
- Chelsea have landed the Win & Both Teams to Score bet in all 3 of their Away wins
This week’s Eye-catcher is:
A Treble on Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea in the ‘Win & Both Teams to Score’ market @ 40/1 with Coral.
Also available @ 35/1+ with William Hill, Ladbrokes, BetVictor, Bet365.
View Team Data and Head-2-Head stats on our site...
Remember you can also view team stats and all our Head-2-Head betting stats on your Prem10 website. Log-in with your email address and personal password at: www.Prem10.co.uk.
I’ll be back on Monday with the weekend results. Enjoy the games...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
