Your 5 Recommended Bets for this weekend's games...
Friday 26th September 2014
In your Prem10 – Recommended Bets email today:
- Welcome to Prem10...
- Derby day in the Premier League...
- Your 5 Recommended Bets...
Welcome to Prem10!
Every Friday we’ll be sending you our Recommended Bets for the weekend games – all based on the highest-rated stats of the week.
We have a great weekend to kick off with, including the Merseyside derby between Liverpool and Everton live on Saturday lunchtime. The stats say to expect goals in that one – see below.
Our betting method...
All in all we have 5 Recommended Bets for the weekend that meet our bet criteria:
- We are ONLY interested in stats and bets that have a 70%+ winning strike-rate
- We are ONLY interested in betting at odds of around Evens or bigger. So every winning bet you have will double your money or better
- Giving you the edge... We’ll be betting at 50-50 odds, on bets that the stats say have a 70%+ chance of winning
When a top-rated bet is available at Evens+, we will recommend that bet as a Single.
Bets that meet our 70%+ stats criteria but are only available at shorter, odds-on prices will be considered in Doubles, Trebles and Accumulators. We will always be looking for a payout at odds of around Evens or better.
One that didn’t make the cut…
Arsenal v Tottenham is the other big derby game this weekend, but the markets don’t quite match the stats for us to be confident in a bet. Bets on Over 3.5 Total Cards bets have paid out in 7 of the last 10 meetings, with an average of 4.5 Cards per game. Bet365 are betting Under or Over 4.5 Cards – which is right on the line. We can’t get Over 3.5 so won’t be betting on this one.
This weekend’s Recommended Bets...
Here are your 5 Recommended Bets. We’re kicking off with a bet on two live TV games, including the big one at Anfield – Liverpool v Everton...
Total Goals Double
Liverpool v Everton (TV) – Over 2.5 Goals @ 3/5
- Over 2.5 Goals have paid out in 4 out of both teams’ 5 games so far (80%)
- 4 of the last 5 meetings between Liverpool and Everton have gone Over 2.5 Goals
- Both teams have kept just 1 Clean Sheet from 5 games this season
- Over 2.5 Goals bets paid out in 73% of Liverpool Home games last season
West Brom v Burnley (TV) – Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/11
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 3 of West Brom’s last 4 games
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 out of 5 Burnley games (80%)
- Burnley’s last 3 games have all ended 0-0
Recommended Bet:
A Double on the 2 bets above @ 7/4 with BetVictor, Boylesports or 13/8+ in general.
Latest odds here
How to double your money on Man City this weekend...
Hull v Man City – City -1 Match Handicap
- Hull lost 4 out of 5 Home games v last season’s Top 5 – with all 4 defeats by more than 1 goal (80%)
- City have won 8 of their last 10 Away games v teams outside last season’s Top 5 (80%)
- Bets on City –1 Match Handicap have paid out in 7 of their last 10 Away games (70%)
- City have scored 2 goals or more in 8 of their last 10 Away games
Recommended Bet:
Man City -1 Match Handicap @ 13/8 with Skybet or 6/4 in general.
Latest odds here
Man Utd v West Ham – Man Utd -3 Corner Handicap
- Man Utd have won the Most Corners in 4 out of 5 games this season (80%)
- Man Utd have won the Most Corners in each of their last 5 Home games
- Bets to win the Most Corners paid out on their opponents in 9 of West Ham’s 10 Away games v Top Half sides last season (90%). -3 Corner Handicap bets paid out in 6 of those 9 games
- Man Utd averaged 2.9 corners per Home game MORE than opponents last season
- West Ham averaged 3.3 corners per Away game LESS than opponents last season
Recommended Bet:
Man Utd -3 Corner Handicap @ 20/21 with Bet365.
This bet doesn’t quite make our Even Money rule – but odds of 20/21 (1.95) are as close as you can get right now and we are happy to take them on this occasion. Lookout for the likes of Paddy Power, Skybet or BetVictor also pricing up this bet before kick off on Saturday.
Latest odds here
Total Corners and Card Handicap Double
Crystal Palace v Leicester – Over 10 Corners @ 8/13 (Alternative Corners market with Bet365)
- Over 10.5 Corners have paid out in 4 out of 5 Palace games this season (80%)
- Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in both Leicester Away games
- Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 8 of Palace’s last 10 Home games (80%)
Chelsea v Aston Villa – Villa 0 Card Handicap @ 1/2 (Alternative Card Handicap market with Bet365)
- Chelsea haven’t received the Most Cards in any of their last 10 Home games (100%)
- Villa have received the Most Cards in 6 of their last 7 Away games
- Chelsea averaged 1 Yellow Card per game last season, and are yet to receive a card at Home this season
- Villa averaged 2 Yellow Cards per Away game last season, and 2 per Away game this season
Recommended Bet:
A Double on the 2 bets above @ 7/5 with Bet365.
Latest odds here
Last but not least, a bet on 2 standout picks in the Match Result market...
Match Result Double
Hull v Man City – Man City to win @ 4/7
- Hull lost 7 out of 10 Home games Top Half sides last season (70%)
- Hull lost 4 out of 5 Home games v last season’s Top 5 (80%)
- City have won 8 of their last 10 Away games v teams outside last season’s Top 5 (80%)
Southampton v QPR – Southampton to win @ 4/9
- Southampton are unbeaten at Home (W1 D1) and yet to concede a goal
- Southampton have kept 3 Clean Sheets in their last 4 Premier League games
- QPR have lost both their Away games so far (100%) – both by a 4-0 score-line
Recommended Bet:
A Double on the 2 bets above @ 13/10 with Ladbrokes, Boylesports.
Latest odds here
Follow every bet online...
Remember you can also view live scores and match stats, and all our Head-2-Head betting stats, on your Prem10 website. Log-in with your email address and personal password at: www.Prem10.co.uk
I’ll be back on Monday with an update on the weekend bet results. Enjoy the games!
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
