Results - a weekend profit, despite Man Utd...
Monday 27th October 2014
In your Prem10 – Results email today:
- Weekend Results = 29% ROI...
- Leicester’s 100% trend, Everton’s 89% record...
- This weekend – the Manchester derby!
It was a bad weekend for favourite backers in the Match Results market with title-chasing Chelsea and Man City – along with odds-on Home favourites Liverpool and Tottenham – all failing to win...
The stats led us to a profit, though – with 3 out of 3 winners in the Corners markets, along with Total Goals and Time of First Goal winners. Giving us an overall 29% Return on Investment for the weekend.
With 9 weeks of the season gone (and 29 still to come!), the stats are producing some reliable trends and with them, plenty of winning bets. See below for our weekend results, along with some of those winning trends that we’ll be looking to cash-in on time and time again...
Weekend results
The stats led us to 8 Recommended Bets that met our criteria:
- We only bet on the highest-rated outcomes, based on the stats (we only bet on 70%+ statistical trends)
- And we only bet at odds of around Evens or better, ensuring a double-your-money payout from each winning bet
For full details of each bet, view Friday’s email on our site here.
Burnley v Everton – Under 11 Corners
Final Score: Burnley 1 Everton 3
Corners result = 9 corners
Recommended Bet:
Under 11 Corners @ 21/20 – WON
Sunderland v Arsenal – Sunderland +1 Corner Handicap
Corners result: Sunderland 3 Arsenal 3
Recommended Bet:
Sunderland +1 Corner Handicap @ Evens – WON
Sunderland v Arsenal – Both Teams to Score
Final Score: Sunderland 0 Arsenal 2
Recommended Bet:
Both Teams to Score @ 10/11 – LOST
Man Utd v Chelsea – Chelsea to win
Final Score: Man Utd 1 Chelsea 1
Recommended Bet:
Chelsea to win @ 6/4 – LOST
Both Teams to Score – Treble
West Ham v Man City – Both Teams to Score (2-1 – won)
Liverpool v Hull – Both Teams to Score (0-0 – lost)
Man Utd v Chelsea – Both Teams to Score (1-1 – won)
Treble @ 4/1 – LOST
Swansea v Leicester – Time of First Goal
Final Score: Swansea 2 Leicester 0
Time of First Goal = 34 mins
Recommended Bet:
Time of First Goal – During or After Minute 28 @ 23/20 – WON
- Note: if you took the bigger price we mentioned on Paddy Power’s Timecast: Swansea to Score the First Goal After 27th Minute – you’ll have landed a 9/4 winner
West Brom v Crystal Palace – Over 2.5 Goals
Final Score: West Brom 2 Palace 2
Recommended Bet:
Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 – WON
West Brom v Crystal Palace – West Brom -2 Corner Handicap
Corners result = West Brom 6 Palace 3
Recommended Bet:
West Brom –2 Corner Handicap @ Evens – WON
- Our 8 bets produced 5 winning payouts at the weekend – giving 2.30 points profit to level stakes, for a 29% Return on Investment (ROI)
- For the season to date overall (since Week 1) – our Recommended Bets have produced a 16% ROI
- Since Prem10 went live (Week 6 of the season) – our Recommended Bets have produced 5% ROI
Taking a closer look at the stats....
Ones that didn’t make the cut...
In Friday’s email I named three bets that didn’t make the cut for our Recommended Bets – based on price or the size of handicap available. All three bets went on to win. And although we didn’t cash-in on these particular trends this time, it’s encouraging that the stats stayed true to form. We’ll keep these trends on our radar for upcoming games...
Bets on Stoke to receive the Most Booking Points have now paid out in 5 of their last 6 games. That bet was too short for us at just 4/9 (1.44) v Southampton at the weekend. Booking Points result = Southampton 0 pts Stoke 20 pts (2 Yellow Cards).
Bets on Over 3.5 Cards have now paid out in 100% of Arsenal games (9 out of 9). Bet365 have set the marker for their game at Sunderland a little too high for us, at 4.5 Cards. Cards result = 6 Cards (6 Yellow Cards).
Bets on Over 3.5 Cards have now paid out in 9 of the last 11 meetings between Man Utd v Chelsea. Bet365 set the line ‘high’ at 5.5 Cards for Sunday’s game – but as it turned out the Cards total went into double figures. Cards result = 11 Cards (9 Yellow Cards, 1 Red Card).
A note on Cards and Booking Points bets:
- Bet365’s Total Cards market works like this. Yellow Card = 1 Card. Red Card = 2 Cards. The most one player can get in a single game = 3 Cards (2 Yellows resulting in a Red). As was the case with Chelsea’s Branislav Ivanovic on Sunday, who was sent off for his 2nd Yellow Card offence.
- William Hill’s Booking Points market works like this. Yellow Card = 10 pts. Red Card = 25 pts. Most one player can get in a single game = 35 pts (2 Yellows resulting in a Red).
We recommend you have accounts with both Bet365and William Hillas several of our Cards and Bookings bets will be with them throughout the season.
One minute away...
Our Recommended Bets made an overall profit for the second week running. But it would have been a lot more if it wasn’t for these two ‘near misses’...
Man Utd equalised in the 3rd minute of stoppage time to draw 1-1 with Chelsea. If Chelsea had held on for the win we’d have been adding a 6/4 winner to our weekend results figures.
That late Man Utd goal landed one of the Both Teams to Score legs in our 4/1 Treble, but the goalless draw between Liverpool and Hull had already scuppered that bet on Saturday. The other leg was the (winning) Both Teams to Score pick for West Ham v Man City.
Trends that did continue include...
Leicester’s 100% record continues...
Bets on Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute have now paid out in 5 out of 5 Leicester Away games. On top of that, Leicester have lost 4 out of 5 Away (80%), and only scored 1 goal in their 5 Away games.
Everton – 89% record for Under 10.5 Corners...
Bets on Under 10.5 Corner (or Under 11 Corners) have now paid out in 8 out of 9 Everton games this season. That’s a strong 89% trend that we’ll be looking to cash-in on again soon.
Sunderland – a strong Corners bet at Home...
No team has gone to Sunderland and won the Most Corners this season. Bets on Sunderland +1 Corner Handicap have paid out in all 5 Home games.
West Brom – goals, goals, goals...
Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 West Brom games in a row, and in 4 of their 5 Home games overall (80%). The most common score-line in West Brom games has been the 2-2 draw – paying out in 3 of their 9 games, at average odds of 14/1.
Eye-catchers update – no 40/1 jackpot this time...
Our weekend Eye-catcher was available at a huge price, but we didn’t manage to get the big jackpot.
The stats flagged up Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea in the ‘Win & Both Teams to Score’ market. The 40/1 treble lost, with none of the three teams managing to win.
We’re also monitoring markets like Red Cards, First Goalscorer and Correct Score – and will highlight any standout prices thrown up by the stats in your Friday emails.
Remember, these Eye-catchers are separate to our main Recommended Bets – and intended to spice up the weekend coupon by hunting out big odds. All based on the stats – no hunches or wild long-shots. If we land an average of 1 out of 5 over the course of the season at minimum odds of 5/1, we’ll be in profit.
We’ll be on the hunt again this Friday.
Coming up this weekend – the Manchester derby!
The weekend coupon finishes off tonight with QPR v Aston Villa live on Sky Sports. Then at the weekend there’s another full schedule of 10 games for us...
Including Man City v Man Utd. The Manchester derby has seen plenty of goals in recent years with Over 2.5 Goals in each of the last 4 meetings, and in 7 of the last 10. As you might expect in a derby match, there are also some strong Total Cards and Booking Points stats for us to look at...
We’ll be looking in detail at all the stats for all the games, and naming our Recommended Bets in your weekend email – which will be with you at 1.00pm on Friday.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
