Your 9 Recommended Bets - and a 12/1 Eye-catcher...

Friday 28th November 2014

In your Prem10 – Recommended Bets email today:

• Your 9 Recommended Bets...
• Plus – a 12/1 Eye-catcher at QPR...

Welcome to your Prem10 weekend email...

This weekend’s biggest game – based on the league table at least – is 2nd place Southampton v 3rd place Man City. We’ve got a standout bet in the Cards market for that one.

We’ve also got highly-rated bets on the live games between Sunderland and Chelsea, and Tottenham & Everton.

In total, the stats have led us to 9 Recommended Bets this week...

• Remember, we use the stats to find bets with a 70%+ winning strike-rate – and we’re always aiming to double our money by betting at Evens or better on as many of our bets as possible.

Ones that didn’t make the cut…

Two bets from our ‘100% Club’ didn’t make the cut this week:

• West Brom v Arsenal. Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 100% of Arsenal Away games, but that bet is just 8/13 (1.62) @ Bet365 – too short for us, especially considering West Brom’s record is a middle-of-the-road 50%.
  
  
• West Ham v Newcastle. Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 100% of West Ham Home games – but the bookies are onto that one, with Bet365 raising the line to Over 11.5 Corners here (and no other markets available at the time of writing).

We’re looking to cash-in on West Ham in a different market though, along with several other highly-rated bets. Plenty of decent prices around for us, too...

This weekend’s Recommended Bets...

Here are your 9 Recommended Bets...

Man Utd are just 1/3 to beat Hull, but you can get a much better price on the Home win by following an 80% trend in the Winning Margin market...

Man Utd v Hull – Winning Margin

• Man Utd have won 4 of their last 5 Home games. Hull have lost their last 3 games
• Man Utd won 7 out of 10 Home games v Bottom Half sides last season (70%)
• Hull lost 9 out of 10 Away games v Top Half sides last season
• Winning Margin – By 1 Goal bets have paid out in 4 of Hull’s 5 defeats (80%) this season, and in 4 of Man Utd’s 5 wins (80%)
• Man Utd are 1/3 to win. Betting at those odds to level stakes in Man Utd Home game this season has produced an 11% LOSS
• Man Utd are 13/5+ to win by 1 goal. Betting at those odds to level stakes has produced an 80% PROFIT

Recommended Bet:

Winning Margin – Man Utd By 1 Goal @ 3/1 (4.00) with Bet365.

Also available @ 13/5+ (3.60+) with Stan James, Paddy Power, BetVictor, Skybet, Ladbrokes.

Latest odds here

There’s also a strong 83% trend to cash-in on in the Cards market at Old Trafford...

Man Utd v Hull – Total Cards

• Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 83% of Man Utd Home games
• Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 83% of Hull Away games
• Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in each of Man Utd’s last 4 Home games
• Man Utd Home games average 5.8 Total Cards
• Hull Away games average 5.5 Total Cards

Recommended Bet:

Asian Total Cards – Over 3.5 Cards @ 9/10 (1.90) with Bet365.

See our Guide to the Bookies for more bookies that offer Cards and Bookings bets. And also check with new bookie BetBright who offer Cards bets on match-days.

Latest odds here

The stats point to goals at both ends at Anfield...

Liverpool v Stoke – Both Teams to Score

• Liverpool have conceded at least 1 goal in 8 of their last 10 games (80%)
• Stoke have conceded at least 1 goal in 8 of their last 10 games (80%)
• Stoke have scored in 5 of their 6 Away games (83%)
• Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 3 of Liverpool’s last 4 Home games
• Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 5 of Stoke’s last 6 games

Recommended Bet:

Both Teams to Score – YES @ 10/11 (1.91) with William Hill.

Also available @ 4/5 (1.80) in general.

Latest odds here

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 100% of Leicester’s Away games, but QPR have found the net twice in each of their last 4 Home games. So instead of the Total Goals market, we want to target the Time of First Goal...

QPR v Leicester – Time of First Goal

• Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute bets have paid out in 100% of Leicester Away games
• Average First Goal Time in QPR Home games = 36 mins
• Average First Goal Time in Leicester Away games = 60 mins
• Both QPR and Leicester are yet to score in the first 15 mins of a game this season
• 4 of Leicester’s last 5 games have been 0-0 at Half Time
• 89% of the goals that Leicester have conceded Away have come in the 2nd Half

Recommended Bet:

Time of First Goal – During or After Minute 28 @ 11/10 (2.10) with BetVictor.

Also available – After 29th Minute @ Evens (2.00) with Paddy Power, Boylesports.

Latest odds here

West Ham have some of the best Corners stats in the league this season...

West Ham v Newcastle – Corner Handicap

• West Ham have won the Most Corners in 75% of games this season
• West Ham -1 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 3 of their last 4 Home games
• Newcastle have won the Most Corners in just 1 out of 6 Away games this season
• Bets on Newcastle’s opponents -1 Corner Handicap have paid out in each of their last 3 Away games

Recommended Bet:

West Ham -1 Corner Handicap @ 39/40 (1.98) with BetVictor.

This bet wins if West Ham win at least 2 corners more than Newcastle.

Also available @ 20/21 (1.95) with Bet365, or 10/11 (1.91) with William Hill, Skybet and Paddy Power.

Latest odds here

Chelsea are odds-on 2/5 favourites to win at Sunderland, even though Sunderland have lost just 1 of 6 Home games so far. We’re avoiding the short odds in the Match Result market, and looking to double our money with these two highly-rated bets...

Sunderland v Chelsea (TV) – Both Teams to Score

• Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 100% of Chelsea Away games
• Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 4 of Chelsea’s last 5 games
• Chelsea are yet to keep an Away Clean Sheet this season
• Sunderland scored in 4 out of 5 Home games v last season’s Top 5 sides (80%)
• Chelsea have conceded in 8 of their last 10 games v Bottom Half sides (80%)
• Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in each of the last 4 meetings between these sides

Recommended Bet:

Both Teams to Score – YES @ 23/20 (2.15) with BetVictor, William Hill.

Also available @ Evens+ (2.00+) in general.

Latest odds here

No Away team has gone to Sunderland and won the Most Corners this season...

Sunderland v Chelsea (TV) – Corner Handicap

• Bets on Sunderland with a +1 Corner Handicap or bigger have paid out in 100% of their Home games, and in 75% of games overall
• Chelsea have only won the Most Corners in 2 of their 6 Away games
• Bets on Sunderland with a +1 Corner Handicap or bigger have paid out in 6 of their last 7 Home games v last season’s Top 5 sides (86%)
• Sunderland average 2.3 Corners per Home game MORE than opponents
• Chelsea average 2.3 Corners per Away game LESS than opponents

Recommended Bet:

Asian Handicap Corners – Sunderland +1.5 Corner Handicap @ Evens (2.00) with Bet365.

This bet wins if Sunderland win more corners, the same amount of corners or 1 corner less than Chelsea.

Also available – look for Sunderland +2 Corner Handicap with the likes of William Hill, Skybet, Paddy Power and BetVictor ahead of kick off.

Latest odds here

Southampton have some of the lowest Cards For stats in the Premier League, and City can be backed at odds-against to get the most Cards on Sunday...

Southampton v Man City (TV) – Team with Most Bookings

• Southampton have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 1 of their 6 Home games
• Man City have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 4 of their 6 Away games
• The Away team won Most Cards/ Booking Points bets in 4 of Southampton’s 5 Home games v Top 5 sides last season (80%)
• Southampton average 1.0 Card For per Home game
• City average 2.5 Cards For per Away game

Recommended Bet:

Card Handicap – Man City 0 Card Handicap @ 13/10 (2.30) with Bet365.

This bet wins if City get more Cards than Southampton.

Also available – the same bet with a different name – look for Team with Most Booking Points bets with William Hill, Labrokes and Boylesports ahead of kick off.

Latest odds here

Tottenham are one of the top Corner-winners in the league at Home, and we have the chance to cash-in on them with a generous looking Corner Handicap this weekend...

Tottenham v Everton (TV) – Corner Handicap

• Tottenham have won the Most Corners in 83% of Home games
• Tottenham have won the Most Corners in 7 of their last 10 games (70%)
• Everton have won the Most Corners in just 3 of their 12 games this season
• Bets on the Home team to win the Most Corners have paid out in each of Everton’s last 5 Away games
• Tottenham average 3.3 Corners per Home game MORE than opponents
• Everton average 3.0 Corners per Away game LESS than opponents

Recommended Bet:

Tottenham -1 Corner Handicap @ Evens (2.00) with Bet365.

This bet wins if Tottenham win at least 2 corners more than Newcastle.

Also available – look for this bet with the likes of BetVictor, Paddy Power, Skybet and William Hill ahead of kick off.

Latest odds here

View Team Data and Head-2-Head stats on our site...

Remember you can also view team stats and all our Head-2-Head betting stats on your Prem10 website. Log-in with your email address and personal password at: www.Prem10.co.uk.

I’ll be back on Monday with the weekend results. Followed by the latest stats and your Recommended Bets for the midweek games taking place on Tuesday & Wednesday night...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone
Editor

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk