Need-to-know stats - and 3 bets for the weekend...
Friday 30th January 2015
In your Prem10 – Weekend email today:
- The Premier League returns...
- This weekend’s need-to-know stats...
- Prem10 Picks – 3 bets for the weekend...
The Premier League returns this weekend – and we’ve used last week’s FA Cup break to make a few tweaks and improvements to your Prem10 weekend email...
As ever, our focus is on:
- Finding the highest-rated stats, trends and bets from each round of Premier League games...
- Highlighting the best moneymaking opportunities, markets and prices on offer with the bookmakers – based on our team stats & match research
But as you’ll see in today’s email we’ve made a slight change to the way we present this information. Your weekend email contains:
- The stats you need to know – the top-rated stats, trends and bets that our research, Team Data & Head-2-Head info on our site has flagged up. Along with our take on the prices, markets and bet opportunities on offer
- Prem10 Picks – where our money’s going. Naming the bets that we’ll be placing, with the simple aim of making as much money as possible from the standout stats, and what we see as the best prices available, each weekend
The stats you need to know...
Here are this week’s need-to-know stats – starting with the big game at Stamford Bridge. It’s the Premier League leaders against the reigning champions...
Chelsea v Man City (TV) – Match Result
- Chelsea have won 100% of Home games – 10 out of 10
- Man City have only played 1 game v a current Top Half side since the end of November – and lost (0-2 v Arsenal)
- City are without a win in 3 games in all comps, scoring just once in that period
- Chelsea have won 7 of their last 9 games v fellow sides from last season’s Top 4 (W7 D2 L0)
The stats make a strong case for Chelsea here, and the market agrees with Chelsea the 23/20 (2.15) favourites. Top scorer Diego Costa is suspended, but the key stat for us here is Chelsea’s record against fellow Top 4 teams. The Home win makes the cut in our Prem10 Picks (see below).
Chelsea v Man City (TV) – Team with Most Bookings
- Chelsea have received the Most Bookings in just 1 of 10 Home games this season. And in none of their last 5 at Home
- City have landed Most Bookings bets in 73% of Away games (8 of 11). And in 4 of their last 5 Away (80%)
- City have received the Most Bookings in 6 of the last 7 meetings between these sides in all competitions
A clear case for City in the Most Cards/ Booking Points market, but the price is nothing to get excited about – City are odds on at 8/11 (1.73). They have been as big as twice that price in recent weeks, so we’re avoiding the short price here.
Crystal Palace v Everton – Match Result
- Palace have won 4 games in a row since Alan Pardew was named manager on 3rd January (2 Premier League, 2 FA Cup)
- Everton are bottom of the Premier League Form Guide table, with a W0 D2 L4 record from their last 6 games
- Everton have lost their last 5 Away games
Palace’s results have improved since Pardew took over and Everton’s recent Away record is poor. Palace are 9/5 (2.80) to win but we like the added safety of the Draw No Bet market (money back if it’s a draw). See Prem10 Picks below.
Liverpool v West Ham – Both Teams to Score
- Both Teams to Score has paid out in 90% of West Ham Away games
- 9 of the last 10 meetings between these sides have gone Over 2.5 Goals (90%)
- West Ham have only failed to score once in their last 11 Premier League games (Away at league leaders Chelsea)
- Liverpool have scored in each of their last 6 Premier League games
- West Ham haven’t kept a Clean Sheet in any of their 10 Away games this season
The stats certainly point to goals in this one, but the generally available 8/11 (1.73) for Both Teams to Score isn’t a price that excites us.
Man Utd v Leicester – Match Result
- Man Utd have won 8 out of 11 Home games (73%). Leicester have lost 8 out of 11 Away games (73%)
- Man Utd have won 5 of their last 6 at Home. Leicester have lost 4 of their last 6 Away
- Man Utd have won 100% of Home games v Bottom Half sides this season (5 out of 5)
Everything points to Home Win there, but odds of just 4/11 (1.36) for Man Utd are too short for us to be betting at.
Man Utd v Leicester – Total Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards = 82% Man Utd Home games (9 out of 11)
- Over 3.5 Cards = 7 of Man Utd’s last 10 games
- Over 3.5 Cards = 8 of Man Utd’s last 9 Home games
- Leicester have had 2 players Sent Off in their last 4 games
- Over 3.5 Cards = 4 of Man Utd’s last 5 Home games
- Over 3.5 Cards = 4 of Leicester’s last 5 Away games
A weight of evidence for betting Over 3.5 Cards here. But at the time of writing Bet365 is the only option available, with that bet as a 4/6 (1.67) favourite. That price is a little shorter than we would’ve liked.
Stoke v QPR – Match Result
- QPR have lost 10 out of 10 Away games (100%)
- Stoke have won their last 3 games v Bottom Half sides
Stoke look a solid Home Win pick to us and we’ll be looking to cash-in on QPR’s 100% losing Away record. See Prem10 Picks below.
Stoke v QPR – Team with Most Corners
- Stoke have won the Most Corners in 5 of their last 6 Home games
- Opponents have won the Most Corners in 9 of QPR’s 10 Away games (90%)
A 90% trend on show here but the bookies are all over this one, making Stoke heavy favourites to win the Most Corners at just 4/11 (1.36).
Sunderland v Burnley – Total Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards = 4 of Sunderland’s last 5 Home games
- Over 3.5 Cards = 4 of Burnley’s last 5 Away games
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 73% of Sunderland Home games
This is one to watch – Sunderland are becoming a reliable Over 3.5 Cards bets at Home. Odds of just 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365 the only current option available mean this misses the cut for us this week though.
West Brom v Tottenham – Anytime Scorer
- Anytime Scorer bets on Tottenham’s Christian Eriksen have paid out in 5 out of 10 Away appearances
- Backed at average odds of 3/1, that bet has produced a 100% ROI this season
- Eriksen has 3 goals from his last 3 starts for Spurs
Harry Kane is the 7/4 (2.75) favourite in the Anytime Scorer market but is without a goal in 4 games. Eriksen has been the star man for Tottenham recently and odds of 3/1+ look good value to us. See Prem10 Picks below.
Arsenal v Aston Villa (TV) – Match Result
- Arsenal have won their last 4 Home games
- Arsenal have won 4 out of 5 Home games v current Bottom Half sides this season
- Villa are without a win in 7 games
Can’t argue with the stats but at 2/9 (1.29) Arsenal are the shortest price Home Win on the Premier League coupon this weekend. No value in that price.
Arsenal v Aston Villa – Corner Handicap
- Arsenal have won the Most Corners in 90% of Home games
- Arsenal have landed -2 Corner Handicap bets in each of their last 8 Home games
- Villa opponents have won the Most Corners in 4 of their last 5 Away
Arsenal -2 Corner Handicap is the bet but odds of just 4/11 (1.36) with William Hill are of no interest. Other bookies go as big as -5 Corner Handicap and it’s hard to make a case for Arsenal covering such a high line.
Southampton v Swansea (TV) – Match Result
- Southampton are top of the Premier League Recent Form table, having won 5 of their last 6 games
- Swansea have won just 1 of their last 8 Away games
- Southampton have beaten Swansea 3 times in a row without conceding a single goal
Southampton are a strong Home Win selection for us and feature in our Prem10 Picks.
Prem10 Picks...
Here’s where our money’s going this weekend.
The stats have thrown up a handful of Home Win selections and having ruled out Man Utd and Arsenal on price, we’ve going for a Treble @ just under 5/1. In the Anytime Scorer market Christian Eriksen looks good value @ 10/3. And we’re backing in-form Palace @ 19/20 in the Draw No Bet market...
This week’s Prem10 Picks are:
- Crystal Palace ‘Draw No Bet’ to beat Everton @ 19/20 (1.95) with William Hill
- West Brom v Tottenham – Christian Eriksen ‘Anytime Scorer’ @ 10/3 (4.33) with Bet365
- Treble: Stoke, Chelsea and Southampton to win @ just under 5/1 (5.90) with William Hill
Latest Premier League odds here
I’ll be back on Monday with the results, along with an update on the latest betting stats & trends in the Premier League.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
