Your 10 Recommended Bets - and we're 8/1 to see Red...
Friday 31st October 2014
In your Prem10 – Recommended Bets email today:
- Your 10 Recommended Bets...
- Plus – an 8/1 Eye-catcher at Newcastle...
Welcome to your Prem10 weekend email. Every Friday we’re looking to cash-in on the Premier League’s highest-rated bets, based on the stats...
This weekend the big game is the Manchester derby, live on Sky Sports on Sunday afternoon. See below for more on that game.
The stats have highlighted several great opportunities for us this week, with a total of 10 Recommended Bets that meet our criteria. Remember, we use the stats to find bets with a 70%+ winning strike-rate – and we’re always aiming to double our money by betting at Evens or better on as many of our bets as possible.
Ones that didn’t make the cut…
Man City have won 5 of their last 6 v Man Utd, but have only won 4 of their last 11 games in all competitions. In fact, on Last 6 Premier League Form, these sides are neck and neck with 11 pts each – so we are avoiding odds of just 10/11 for the City win.
The bookies are also expecting a fiery encounter, with Bet365 betting Over 5.5 Total Cards. However it’s worth noting that Over 5.5 Cards bets have only paid out in 3 of the last 10 Manchester derbies. So we’ll be giving the Cards market a miss, too.
Plenty of stats do jump out for bets this weekend though, including one in the Manchester derby...
This weekend’s Recommended Bets...
Here are your 10 Recommended Bets. Starting with a bet featuring two of the TV games...
Goals – Treble @ 4/1
Man City v Man Utd (TV) – Both Teams to Score @ 11/20
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 5 of City’s last 6 games
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 5 Man Utd games in a row
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 3 out of 4 City Home games, and 78% of Man Utd games
- Both teams have scored in 3 of the 4 meetings between these sides over the last 2 seasons
Newcastle v Liverpool (TV) – Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 8 out of the last 10 meetings between these sides (80%)
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 100% of Liverpool Away games this season (4 out of 4)
- Both teams have kept just 2 clean sheets each from 9 games this season
- Newcastle Home games average 3.3 Total Goals. Liverpool Away games average 4.0 Total Goals
Everton v Swansea – Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 out of 4 Everton Home games (100%)
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 3 out of 4 Swansea Away games (75%)
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Everton’s last 5 games
- Everton have scored in 100% of games this season (9 out of 9)
- These sides have met 4 times in the last 12 months in League and Cup – with all 4 paying out on Over 2.5 Goals
Recommended Bet:
Treble on the 3 bets above @ 4/1 (5.00) with BetVictor.
Also available @ 7/2+ (4.50+) with Bet365, Ladbrokes, Boylesports and in general.
Latest odds here
Two bets stand out at Arsenal on Saturday...
Arsenal v Burnley – Arsenal -4 Corner Handicap
- Arsenal have won the Most Corners in 3 out of 4 Home games (75%)
- Arsenal -4 and -5 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in all 3 Home games where they’ve won the Most Corners
- Bets on Burnley’s opponents with a -4 or -5 Corner Handicap have paid out in their last 2 Away games
Recommended Bet:
Arsenal -4 Corner Handicap @ 23/20 (2.15) with BetVictor.
Also available @ 11/10 (2.10) with William Hill. Check with Bet365, Betway, Paddy Power and Skybet over the weekend, too.
Latest odds here
Arsenal v Burnley – Over 3.5 Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 100% of Arsenal games (9 out of 9)
- Arsenal Home games average 6.8 Total Cards
- Burnley Away games average 3.8 Total Cards
- Both teams average 2 or more Yellow Cards each per game
Recommended Bet:
Over 3.5 Cards @ 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365.
You’ll also find Total Cards or Bookings bets with William Hill.
Latest odds here
There are also two strong trends to cash-in on at Stoke...
Stoke v West Ham – Time of First Goal
- Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute bets have paid out in 75% of Stoke Home games (3 out of 4)
- Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute bets have paid out in 75% of West Ham Away games (3 out of 4)
- Average First Goal Time in Stoke Home games = 41 mins
- Average First Goal Time in West Ham Away games = 32 mins
Recommended Bet:
Time of First Goal – During or After Minute 28 @ 11/10 (2.10) with BetVictor.
Also check for this market with Boylesports and Paddy Power.
Latest odds here
Stoke v West Ham – West Ham +1 Corner Handicap
- Bets on Stoke’s opponents to win the Most Corners have paid out in 75% of their Home games (3 out of 4), and 78% of games overall
- West Ham have won the Most Corners in 100% of Away games (4 out of 4), and 78% of games overall
- West Ham average 3.7 Corners per Away game MORE than opponents
Recommended Bet:
West Ham +1 Corner Handicap @ 21/20 (2.05) with William Hill.
Also available @ Evens (2.00) with BetVictor. Check also for this bet with Bet365.
Latest odds here
And at Everton, two more highly-rated bets for us...
Everton v Swansea – Team with Most Booking Points
- Everton haven’t received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in any of their 4 Home games
- Swansea have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 3 out of 4 Away games (75%)
- Everton average 1 Yellow Card (10 pts) per Home game LESS than opponents
- Swansea average 1 Yellow Card (10 pts) per Away game MORE than opponents
Recommended Bet:
Most Booking Points – Swansea @ 19/20 (1.95) with William Hill.
Also check for this market with Betway, and Bet365 (Swansea 0 Card Handicap market).
Latest odds here
Everton v Swansea – Under 10.5 Corners
- Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 100% of Everton Home games (4 out of 4), and 89% of games overall
- Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 7 out of 9 Swansea games this season (78%)
- Everton Home games average 8.3 Total Corners
- Swansea Away games average 8.5 Total Corners
Recommended Bet:
Asian Total Corners – Under 10.5 Corners @ 7/8 (1.88) with Bet365.
The price on this bet doesn’t quite make our Even Money (2.00) criteria – but the stats are strong and we are happy to take these odds.
You’ll also find Total Corners markets with bookies such as BetVictor, William Hill and Betway.
Latest odds here
High-flying Southampton are a team to follow in the Corner Handicap market this weekend...
Hull v Southampton – Southampton -1 Corner Handicap
- Bets on Hull’s opponents to win the Most Corners have paid out in 100% of Hull Home games (4 out of 4), and 78% of games overall
- Southampton have won the Most Corners in 3 out of 4 Away games (75%) – with -1 Corner Handicap bets paying out in all 3 of those games
- Hull at Home average 3.5 Corners per game LESS than opponents
- Southampton Away average 2.0 Corners per game MORE than opponents
Recommended Bet:
Asian Handicap Corners – Southampton -1.5 Corner Handicap @ 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365.
Also look for Southampton -1 Corner Handicap (the same bet) with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betway.
Latest odds here
Some strong Cards stats on show in the Sunday 4.00pm game...
Aston Villa v Tottenham (TV) – Over 3.5 Cards
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 3 out of 4 Villa Home games (75%)
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 out of 4 Tottenham Away games (100%), and in 6 of their last 7 games overall
- Villa Home games average 4.3 Total Cards
- Tottenham Away games average 6.6 Total Cards
Recommended Bet:
Asian Total Cards – Over 3.5 Cards @ 3/4 (1.75) with Bet365.
The odds drop a little below our Even Money (2.00) target here – but the strong stats mean we’re happy to take the price on this occasion.
This game is live on TV on Sunday so you’ll also find Total Cards or Bookings bets with the likes of William Hill, Paddy Power, Betway and Skybet ahead of kick off.
Latest odds here
And last but not least – here’s a way to more than double your money on two big Home win favourites this weekend...
Match Handicap – Double @ 13/8
Arsenal v Burnley – Arsenal -1 Match Handicap @ 8/11
- Arsenal have won 9 of their last 12 Home games v last season’s Bottom Half sides (75%)
- Arsenal won 100% of games v newly-promoted sides last season (6 out of 6). With -1 Match Handicap bets paying out in all 6
- Burnley are the only team in the Premier League yet to win a game (W0 D4 L5)
- -1 Match Handicap bets have paid out in 4 of Burnley’s 5 defeats (80%)
- -1 Match Handicap bets have paid out in 7 of Arsenal’s last 10 Premier League wins (70%)
Chelsea v QPR – Chelsea -1 Match Handicap @ 8/15
- Chelsea have won 4 out of 4 Home games this season (100%)
- Chelsea have won 83% of Home games since the start of last season
- QPR have lost 4 out of 4 Away games (100%)
- Chelsea -1 Match Handicap bets have paid out in all 4 Home wins, and 6 of their 7 wins overall
- -1 Match Handicap bets have paid out in 3 of QPR’s 4 Away defeats
Recommended Bet:
Double on the 2 bets above @ 13/8 (2.63) with Bet365, Skybet.
Also available @ 6/4+ (2.50+) in general.
Latest odds here
Eye-catcher – 8/1 for a Newcastle Red Card...
Every week we’ll be looking to cash-in on the stats – separate to our main Recommended Bets – with a big price ‘Eye-catcher.’ Aiming to land big odds payouts from other bets & markets that our stats and research throw up, at odds of 5/1 and bigger...
This week the stats point us to an eye-catching price in the ‘Will there be a Red Card?’ market...
Newcastle v Liverpool
12.45pm Saturday – live on BT Sport
There’s a history of Yellow and Red Cards here...
- There has been a Red Card in each of the last 5 meetings between these sides
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of the last 5 meetings
- Newcastle have had 5 players Sent Off in their last 4 games v Liverpool
Three options are available – and we’re interested in the biggest price. Over 3.5 Cards is just 8/13 with Bet365. It’s 4/1 with Paddy Power for there to be a Red Card shown. And a standout 8/1 for a Newcastle player to be Sent Off...
This week’s Eye-catcher is:
‘Newcastle to have a Red Card’ @ 8/1 with Paddy Power.
- You’ll find this market on the Paddy Power website by going to the Newcastle v Liverpool game, then clicking on Card Markets and scrolling down to Red Card Markets.
View Team Data and Head-2-Head stats on our site...
Remember you can also view team stats and all our Head-2-Head betting stats on your Prem10 website. Log-in with your email address and personal password at: www.Prem10.co.uk.
I’ll be back on Monday with the weekend results. Enjoy the games...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
