Midweek Picks - 12/5 value on Diego Costa...
Tuesday 1st March 2016
In your Prem10 – Midweek Picks email today:
- This week’s standout stats & prices...
- The best way to profit from Diego Costa…
- ‘Winning Margin’ best value on Chelsea…
A big few days coming up in the Premier League with back-to-back midweek & weekend games…
In yesterday’s email we looked at the massive matches in the title race involving the likes of Leicester and Tottenham. But having studied the midweek markets it’s tonight’s game between Norwich and Chelsea that presents us with the standout prices…
Having studied the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this week...
The best way to profit from Diego Costa…
Norwich v Chelsea – Player To Be Shown a Card
- Diego Costa is the joint-3rd player for most Yellow Cards in the Premier League this season (8 Cards)
- Costa has received 4 Yellow Cards in his last 9 Premier League games
This season you’d have made more money backing Chelsea striker Diego Costa to be Booked than by backing him to Score. And tonight he looks good value to collect another Yellow Card…
Taking tonight’s prices as the guide, backing Costa Anytime Scorer to level stakes at Even Money (2.00) would have given a 6pts loss for the season, while following Costa in every game in the To Be Shown a Card @ 12/5 (3.40) would have produced 3.2 pts profit…
Narrow that down to his last 10 league games and backing Costa to be ‘Carded’ has produced twice as much profit as backing him to Score Anytime, with 4 payouts.
Compare Costa’s price tonight with that of the five Premier League players alongside him on 8+ Yellow Cards this season (including Alex Tettey of Norwich), and all are shorter prices in the To Be Shown A Card market than Costa this week. The value is on our side here…
Chelsea look underrated in several markets for this game (see below) and after picking up Yellows in his last 2 Premier League Away games, Costa looks good value to go in the Referee’s book again. Best price: Anytime Carded Player – Diego Costa at 12/5 (3.40) with BetVictor, or To Get a Card at 2/1 (3.00) with 888 Sport, Unibet. |
How to find this bet...
- From the BetVictor homepage, go to: Sports > Football > English Premier League > Norwich v Chelsea > Cards > Anytime Carded Player
- On the 888 Sport website, go to: Sports Betting > Football > England > Premier League > Norwich v Chelsea > Player Cards > To Get a Card
‘Winning Margin’ best value on Chelsea…
Norwich v Chelsea – Winning Margin
- Chelsea have won 3 of their last 4 Away games
- Norwich have lost 6 of their last 7 games
Recent form says Chelsea could be even shorter than their odds-on price of 7/10 (1.70) for the Away Win here. And we can increase the payout potential by looking to the Winning Margin market…
The league table makes this 17th v 11th but the latest form puts a much bigger gap between the sides – Norwich are 18th on Last 6 Form and Chelsea are up in 4th. The formbook says Chelsea are on course for a Top 10 finish while Norwich are sliding towards Relegation.
Norwich have tightened up a little in defence with the return of John Ruddy as their No.1 goalkeeper, losing 1-0 to a late goal at league leaders Leicester last weekend. Chelsea beat Norwich 1-0 at Stamford Bridge earlier this season, and 3 of their 4 Away Wins have been by the 1-goal margin…
Winning Margin – Chelsea By 1 Goal is my value selection here. That bet offers us the best price about what the stats say is the most likely outcome. Best odds 14/5 (3.80) with Stan James, 11/4 (3.75) Skybet, 13/5 (3.60) Bet365, Ladbrokes. |
Midweek Picks...
In summary, my pick of the prices this week are...
- Norwich v Chelsea – Anytime Carded Player – Diego Costa @ 12/5 (3.40) with BetVictor
- Norwich v Chelsea – Winning Margin – Chelsea By 1 Goal @ 14/5 (3.80) with Stan James
Latest Premier League odds here |
I’ll be back on Friday with your weekend stats, picks & value analysis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
