Weekend Picks - Defoe dangerous at 11/5...

Friday 1st April 2016

In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:

• Fasten your seatbelts...
• This week’s standout stats & prices...
• Defoe dangerous at 11/5...
• Gunners to keep it clean...

Fasten your seatbelts...

The end of season run-in starts now...

With Easter and the International break out the way, we now have an unbroken run of Premier League games to look forward. And with all to play for at both ends of the table, it’s sure to be an exciting few weeks.

It was a profitable March for our Weekend Picks and I’ll be looking to build on that between now and the end of the season. We’ll be paying attention to the likes of Leicester and Tottenham at the top of the table in the weeks ahead I’m sure – but for this weekend the betting value looks to be elsewhere...

Having studied the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend. Two markets catch the eye...

Defoe dangerous at 11/5...

Sunderland v West Brom – Anytime Scorer

• Jermain Defoe has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 4 of his last 10 games – including Sunderland’s last 2 Premier League games

Sunderland’s top scorer looks value here...

If Sunderland avoid the drop then Jermain Defoe’s goals will have played a big part. He’s scored his team’s only goals in their last 2 games, and has found the net 12 times overall for the season. That puts him 7th in the Premier League Top Scorer chart which is impressive for a striker playing in the 17th placed team in the division.

Odds of 11/5 (3.20) look too big for Defoe this weekend. Compare his Anytime Scorer price with Arsenal’s Olivier Giroud, for example... Giround also has 12 goals to his name but is as short as 10/11 (1.91) to score against Watford.

Anytime Scorer – Jermain Defoe is a best price 11/5 (3.20) with Paddy Power. Also available at 17/10 (2.70) with Ladbrokes, Boylesports, 888 Sport, Unibet.

• How to find this bet – on the Paddy Power website, go to: Sports > Football Betting > Matches > English Premier League > Sunderland v West Brom > Goalscorer Markets

Gunners to keep it clean...

Arsenal v Watford – Total Cards

• In 4 of their last 10 Premier League games, Arsenal have received No Cards
• Under 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of Watford’s last 5 Away games

This could have an ‘end of season’ feel about it, with a low number of Cards to match...

Arsenal are generally well-behaved at Home, receiving the Most Cards in just 3 of 14 games at The Emirates this season (the 2nd best record in the division).

Watford have lost 3 in a row but are still 11 pts clear of the relegation zone, and their season focus may now be on Wembley & the FA Cup Semi Finals.

Arsenal are still in the title race, but the numbers say we shouldn’t expect a blood ‘n’ thunder game here. After Easter we often see bookies set their Total Cards line low at 2.5 Cards – but we can still get the preferred Under 3.5 Cards this weekend...

Under 3.5 Cards – best price 5/6 (1.83) with Bet365. Also check with 888 Sport and Unibet ahead of kick off. Also available – Under 35 Booking Points at 3/4 (1.75) with William Hill.

• How to find this bet – on the Bet365 website, go to: Sports > Soccer > United Kingdom – Premier League > Arsenal v Watford > Cards
  

Enjoy the games – I’ll be back on Monday with a review of the weekend stats & results.

Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10