The stats say - stay away from Home Win bets...
Tuesday 1st September 2015
In your Prem10 – Review email today:
- Stay away from Home Wins…
- What the stats say after Week Four…
- Coming up this week…
Stay away from Home Wins…
Here at Prem10 part of our strategy is to avoid short-price Home Win bets in the Premier League and look instead to a broader range of markets – with our unique Goals, Corners, Cards & Booking Points betting stats as our guide…
An example of this over the weekend was the Liverpool v West Ham game, where 4/11 (1.36) Match Result favourite Liverpool were turned over 3-0 at Home by 9/1 (10.00) outsiders West Ham.
We looked beyond the Match Result/ Home Win market and followed the strong statistical trend for Over 10.5 Corners in this fixture. The 12 Corners in Saturday’s game landed our Stats Pick there. We’ll be looking for many more bets like that as the season progresses and more 2015/16 form goes in the book.
Stats Pick:
- Liverpool v West Ham – Over 10.5 Corners @ 8/11 – WON
Premier League champions Chelsea also suffered a shock Home defeat on Saturday, also starting the game as 4/11 (1.36) favourites and losing 2-1 to 9/1 (10.00) underdogs Crystal Palace.
With 40 games of the new Premier League season played, there have been just 9 Home Wins so far. That 23% win rate is below average for the division at this stage of the season and highlights the pitfalls of following Home Win bets that the bookies’ shop window adverts would lead you to believe are ‘nailed-on.’
I prefer to focus on some of the lesser-known markets – here’s an update on the stats after the weekend’s games:
What the stats say after Week Four…
Newcastle 0 Arsenal 1 – Corner Handicap
Newcastle had a 74% strike rate for winning the Most Corners in Home games last season, but our Stats Pick was undone by a Red Card here. The Corners score was 0-0 before Newcastle had a man Sent Off – from then on it was all Arsenal and their 11 men against 10 dominated the game, with 74% Possession and winning the Most Corners 9-0.
Stats Pick:
- Newcastle +1 Corner Handicap @ 21/20 – LOST
Aston Villa 2 Sunderland 2 – Total Cards
The stats pointed to Over 3.5 Cards here with that option paying out in 71% of Sunderland games last season and all 3 of Villa’s previous games this season. However we swerved the Over 3.5 Cards bet at odds-on here with the knowledge that match Referee Robert Madley was the lowest-rated Cards per Game Ref in the Premier League in 2014/15. That proved the right decision as this game went ‘Under 3.5’ with Madley showing just the 3 Yellow Cards.
Swansea 2 Man Utd 1 – Team with Most Bookings
Swansea have now only received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in one out of 21 Home games since the start of last season, but the Cards ‘Tie’ here meant we just missed out on payout from our Stats Pick on Man Utd. Swansea’s Jonjo Shelvey was booked in the 80th minute for kicking the ball away after the whistle had blown. A pretty infuriating way to see a bet go down. Swansea 2 Yellow Cards (20 pts) Man Utd 2 Yellow Cards (20 pts).
Stats Pick:
- Man Utd 0 Card Handicap @ 5/4 – LOST
Chelsea 1 Crystal Palace 2 – Total Goals
Over 2.5 Goals bets have now paid out in 100% (4 out of 4) of Chelsea’s and Crystal Palace’s games this season, but Chelsea’s strong defensive record put me off betting Over in this one. As it was, that bet would’ve paid out – an example of the stats highlighting winning opportunities even when the match result is a ‘shock’ one.
- We’re only four weeks into the new season so we’re taking it slowly with our match bets so far. Having said that there are some decent stats trends developing already and we’ll be looking to bet in the Goals, Corners, Cards & Bookings markets again when the season resumes after the International break
Coming up this week…
The Premier League goes on hold for the Euro 2016 Qualifiers this weekend. Our next weekend bets email will be on Friday 11th September.
And before then, I’ll be in touch this Friday with a look at some of the standout stats and trends on show so far this season – and an explanation of the Goals, Corners, Cards & Bookings markets that we target and how they work.
Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
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