Stats Review - Palace's 23-game run comes to an end...
Monday 2nd November 2015
In your Prem10 – Review email today:
- Man City somehow only win 2-1…
- What the stats say after Week 11…
- Coming up this week…
City somehow only win 2-1…
The stats pointed us in the direction of several strongly-rated opportunities at the weekend, but the stars aligned against us.
I won’t and don’t often play the ‘bad luck’ card, but I think you’ll agree we were a little unfortunate to not come out of Saturday and Sunday with more than one payout from our five Picks.
Man City were the chief culprits. They had covered the -1 Match Handicap in 9 of their last 10 Premier League wins (a bet always available at a bigger price than the standard win), but only managed a one-goal margin of victory over Norwich, 2-1.
Goalkeeper Joe Hart made one of the ‘howlers’ of the season to give Norwich their goal, while another City player, Aleksandar Kolarov, missed a Penalty for 3-1 – after an argument about who was going to take it – with what was literally the last kick of the game.
Stats Pick:
- Man City -1 Match Handicap @ 8/11 – LOST
Elsewhere Southampton kept up their record of scoring 2+ goals per Home game (6 games in a row now), but their 2-0 win over Bournemouth was one goal short of landing a 5th Over 2.5 Goals payout from 6 games.
Better news on the Cards & Booking Points stats there though with Southampton receiving the Most Cards/ Bookings for the 6th league game in a row – despite being priced up as the 3/1 outsiders in that market. A Red Card for the Saints meant the score was Southampton 3 Cards (35 pts), Bournemouth 2 Cards (20 pts).
Stats Picks:
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 – LOST
- Southampton +1 Card Handicap @ 6/5 – WON
Over to London and the stats went out the window with Watford not only beating high-flying West Ham 2-0, but also winning the Most Corners for just the 3rd time in 11 league games this season.
Stats Pick:
- Corners Match Bet – West Ham @ 20/21 – LOST
And with our bigger price Value Pick we got halfway there with Crystal Palace and Man Utd 0-0 at Half Time – but United couldn’t get the breakthrough to land the HT/ FT – Draw/ Win at odds of 9/2.
The game ended goalless, an outcome made all the more frustrating by the fact that I managed to avoid backing the Half Time Draw itself (now paid out in 10 Palace league games in a row), and Under 10.5 Corners (now paid out in all 6 Man Utd Away games) – although both those options were at much shorter prices than our 9/2 selection.
Not to mention that that was the first time Palace have drawn a Premier League game in 23 games stretching back to last season…
Value Pick:
- Half Time/ Full Time – Draw/ Man Utd @ 9/2 – LOST
What the stats say after Week 11…
Not a happy Monday today then for me, but we must look to the positives and there are plenty of strong trends throughout the Premier League to give us encouragement moving forward. If you’re using the stats on our site you may well have been following a few of these this season…
- Reigning champions Chelsea have lost 6 of their 11 games
- Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 8 consecutive games
- Bets on Southampton to receive the Most Cards/ Booking Points have paid out in 9 of their 11 games (82%)
- Norwich are the only side in the division yet to keep a Clean Sheet, with Both Teams to Score bets paying out in 9 of their 11 games (82%)
Coming up this week…
Those are just a few of the statistical pointers we’ll be using the tackle the coming weekend’s fixture list…
I’ll be back on Wednesday with a more in-depth look at some of the current key stats and profitable betting trends in the Premier League in your Spotlight email.
Followed by your Weekend Preview with the latest stats and my betting analysis & Picks on Friday. The weekend schedule includes Arsenal v Tottenham and another tricky game for Chelsea away at Stoke. Plenty for us to get stuck into there…
Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
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