Weekend Picks - Marko's the man at 5/1...

Friday 4th March 2016

In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:

• This week’s standout stats & prices...
• Marko’s the man at 5/1...
• Antonio should be backed at 13/2...
• Handicap value on Sunderland...

We managed to make a profit from a crazy set of midweek games...

While the top four of Leicester, Tottenham, Arsenal and Man City all failed to win – we looked further down the table for value with Chelsea To Win By 1 Goal a standout selection in the ‘Winning Margin’ market at odds of 14/5 (3.80).

That 14/5 price was a significant boost on the odds-on 7/10 (1.70) for Chelsea to win. Their 2-1 win at Norwich means the By 1 Goal option has paid out in 4 of Chelsea’s 5 Away league wins this season. We could get another few chances to profit from that trend between now and the end of the season.

This weekend the stats lead us to two eye-catching prices in the Anytime Scorer market, and a generous looking Corner Handicap...

Having studied the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend...

Our picks in the Anytime Scorer market have produced a 39% ROI this season – and two in-form players standout at attractive prices this week...

Marko’s the man at 5/1...

Chelsea v Stoke – Anytime Scorer

• Chelsea haven’t kept a Clean Sheet in 7 Premier League Home games

Stoke’s Marko Arnautovic has already found the net against Chelsea once this season and catches the eye at 5/1 here...

With Chelsea struggling for Clean Sheets at Stamford Bridge we should look to the Away team’s Anytime Scorer prices – and the in-form Arnautovic is the pick for me.

Backing Arnautovic Anytime Scorer to level stakes at 5/1 (6.00) would have produced 17 pts profit for the season to date. He’s as short as 10/3 (4.33) with some bookies this weekend...

Antonio should be backed at 13/2...

Everton v West Ham – Anytime Scorer

• Everton have kept just 2 Clean Sheets in 14 Premier League Home games this season

A similar situation to the Chelsea-Stoke game here, with a Home team with a poor Clean Sheet record taking on an in-form visiting side...

West Ham’s Michail Antonio is the standout price in this one. He’s landed Anytime Scorer bets in 4 of his last 7 games – including 3 in 5 in the Premier League – and I can’t ignore some of the prices on offer here...

There’s a big difference in the market with Antonio as short as 10/3 (4.33) in places but as big as 13/2 (7.50) elsewhere...

Handicap value on Sunderland...

Southampton v Sunderland – Corner Handicap

• Bets on opponents with a +3 Corner Handicap have paid out in 5 of Southampton’s last 6 Home games

Southampton look overrated in the Corners markets here...

As the Home team Southampton are the understandable favourite for the Most Corners – but odds of 2/9 (1.22) look very short. Those odds suggests Southampton are an 80%+ chance, despite the fact that they’ve landed that bet in just 5 of 14 games at St Mary’s this season (36%).

Sunderland are one of the lowest teams on our season-long Most Corners chart and are 4/1 (5.00) outsiders for this one, but have improved in recent weeks. And with the head-start of a +3 Corner Handicap, backing Sunderland would have paid out in 8 of their last 10 games – including a ‘Most Corners’ win at West Ham last weekend.

Significantly, Southampton have covered the -3 Corner Handicap in just 3 of 14 Home games. With that in mind the value looks to be on the Away team in this market, especially at the odds-against prices available...

Enjoy the weekend football – I’ll be back on Monday with stats and results update.

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk