Spotlight - four men to follow in the Scorer markets...
Wednesday 4th November 2015
In your Prem10 – Spotlight email today:
- The REAL Premier League Top Scorer charts...
- Four men to follow...
- Coming up...
In the spotlight...
This week I’m looking at the Scorer stats – where analysis of the goal-scoring charts and betting markets leads us to four players in particular...
- Your Prem10 Spotlight email is a new midweek feature where we’ll be taking a look at some of the key stats and moneymaking trends from across the Premier League. The focus is on numbers – no Talksport gossip or back-page of the newspaper hype here
- The idea is to discover a few betting gems along the way, pointing out little-known patterns, statistics, team trends and betting markets where we can get the edge on the bookies
- All this additional research and data-probing will help us latch on to bets that may go on to feature in our Weekend Picks email and analysis every Friday, before each round of games
In the spotlight today...
The REAL Premier League Top Scorer charts...
The Premier League’s general Top Scorer table – that you can get from any number of websites – tells you the most basic information: which players have scored the most goals.
But here at Prem10 we’re interested in the betting markets: which players are producing the most payouts in the following markets: First Scorer, Last Scorer and Anytime Scorer. This is information that requires more research to get hold of – and I have done that work for you...
Analysis of the numbers below leads us to four players in particular that we should keep in mind for Scorer bets right now. Players that may be overlooked by other bettors, and also underrated by the bookies...
Premier League 2015/16 – TOP SCORER:
Player (Club) |
Goals |
J.Vardy (Leicester) |
11 |
O.Ighalo (Watford) |
7 |
R.Mahrez (Leicester) |
7 |
G.Pelle (Southampton) |
6 |
O.Giroud (Arsenal) |
6 |
G.Wijnaldum (Newcastle |
6 |
S.Aguero (Man City) |
6 |
R.Lukaku (Everton) |
6 |
A.Sanchez (Arsenal) |
6 |
That’s the ‘official’ chart. Now for the betting markets...
FIRST SCORER bets:
Player (Club) |
First Scorer payouts |
J.Vardy (Leicester) |
4 |
O.Ighalo (Watford) |
3 |
G.Pelle (Southampton) |
3 |
O.Giroud (Arsenal) |
3 |
A.Sanchez (Arsenal) |
2 |
LAST SCORER bets:
Player (Club) |
Last Scorer payouts |
J.Vardy (Leicester) |
4 |
D.Payet (West Ham) |
4 |
O.Ighalo (Watford) |
3 |
G.Pelle (Southampton) |
3 |
A.Sanchez (Arsenal) |
2 |
ANYTIME SCORER bets:
Player (Club) |
Anytime Scorer payouts |
J.Vardy (Leicester) |
9 |
O.Giroud (Arsenal) |
6 |
O.Ighalo (Watford) |
5 |
G.Pelle (Southampton) |
5 |
A.Ayew (Swansea) |
5 |
R.Mahrez (Leicester) |
5 |
Our stats above demonstrate that:
A) The ‘big name’ strikers aren’t necessarily the Top Scorers...
B) The Top Scorers aren’t necessarily the best players to bet on...
Starting with the first point, on day one of the season Sergio Aguero (Man City) and Diego Costa (Chelsea) were the favourites in the Premier League outright Top Scorer betting, both at single-figure prices...
But 11 games in to the season, Aguero (currently injured) has just 2 Anytime Scorer payouts to his name – despite being right up there in the standard chart with 6 goals scored...
While Costa has just 2 Anytime Scorer payouts in the book. In fact, Costa has got more Yellow Cards (3) than goals (2) this season.
The second point – as shown by Aguero’s low Anytime Scorer rate – is that a player with a lot of goals to his name isn’t necessarily a regular scorer or a profitable player to follow in the Scorer markets...
Four men to follow...
Our bet-specific figures above highlight four players that are proving regular scorers AND producing a significant number of winning bets. Those four players are:
Jamie Vardy (Leicester)
Odion Ighalo (Watford)
Graziano Pelle (Southampton)
Oliver Giroud (Arsenal)
Going back to point A), it’s fair to say that those players are not household names or as well-known as the likes of Aguero or Costa. And of the four, only Giroud plays for a ‘big-name’ Premier League club.
With the betting stats above in mind, Vardy, Ighalo, Pelle and Giroud may be overlooked by other bettors and underestimated by the bookmakers.
We should keep those four names in the front of our thoughts when it comes to tackling the Scorer markets in the weeks ahead.
Coming up...
Coming soon – we’ll be adding live versions of those Scorer tables and betting stats to your Prem10 website. So you can view the latest figures and identify the standout bets for yourself.
Plus – in upcoming Spotlight emails I’ll be taking a deeper look into the Scorer stats to find out which players are proving the most profitable if backed to level stakes.
Plenty to look forward to...
And remember, while you might read about Diego Costa’s latest scuffle... Jose Mourinho’s latest press conference... or the next Man City transfer rumour... on the back page of your newspaper – you certainly won’t find the kind of bet-specific information that we provide you with here at Prem10.
I’ll be back on Friday with your Weekend Preview and betting Picks.
Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
