Weekend Picks - including Man City v Leicester...

Friday 5th February 2016

In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:

• This week’s standout stats & prices...
• Corner a profit on the champions...
• Villans value for the Most Cards...
• Underdog value on West Ham...

Our midweek picks returned one winner and one loser – Tottenham continued their exceptional Corner-winning form, but West Ham couldn’t keep up their early goal record against 10-man Aston Villa.

The opportunities come thick and fast in the Premier League and we have another full schedule of games this weekend. Three prices catch the eye...

Having studied all the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend...

Before I get into my weekend recommendations, a quick nod to two teams that standout on the stats but don’t make the cut in terms of price...

Tottenham v Watford and Liverpool v Sunderland sees top two teams on our Most Corners stats at Home to the bottom two teams respectively. But shorts odds-on prices of 1/5 (1.20) each are of no interest – while the Corner Handicaps on offer of -4 Tottenham and -3 Liverpool look a little too steep, having studied the 2015/16 Corners stats for each team.

With our Weekend Picks, I’m always looking for a value price. The stats lead us so far – but I’ll only be recommending a bet when my analysis and opinion suggests the odds are in our favour. Three games standout this weekend...

Corner a profit on the champions...

Man City v Leicester (TV) – Corner Handicap

• Man City have won the Most Corners in 75% of Home games
• Leicester have won Most Corners in just 1 of 5 Away games v Top Half sides

This is a top-of-the-table clash – but Man City are streets ahead on the Corners stats...

Man City are our 2nd ranked team for Most Corners bets at Home, and are averaging 4.0 Corners per Home game more than opponents. They also dominated the Corners score 13-1 in their goalless draw at Leicester in December.

With Man City 3 pts behind Leicester in the table, and with the Away team set up to play on the counter attack, Man City are a justified 1/4 (1.15) favourite to win the Most Corners. And the stats say the -3 Corner Handicap, which has paid out in 8 of their 12 Home games already, is completely achievable here...

Villans value for the Most Cards...

Aston Villa v Norwich – Most Cards/ Bookings

• Villa have landed Most Cards/ Booking Points bets in 5 of their last 6 games
• Norwich have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 1 of their last 6 games

Aston Villa are the value in this relegation fight...

Norwich are ranked 2nd on the ‘Most Booking Points – Away’ League Stats on our site, but the recent form (above) points squarely to the Home team.

On the overall 2015/16 season figures, Villa are the Most Booked team in the Premier League, with a total of 49 Yellow Cards (1st) compared to Norwich’s 36 Yellows (15th).

It’s also worth pointing out that Villa landed this bet (5 Yellow Cards to 2) in the reverse fixture at Norwich on 28th Dec.

An ugly match in store here, with an air of desperation about both sides, but the Home team are the value in the Cards & Bookings markets...

Underdog value on West Ham...

Southampton v West Ham (TV) – Double Chance

• West Ham have lost just 1 of their last 13 games in all comps
• West Ham Win or Draw ‘Double Chance’ bets have paid out in 75% of their Premier League Away games

This is 7th v 6th in the table – and the Away team look the value in the Match Result markets...

Southampton’s Ronald Koeman has just picked up the Manager of the Month Award for January, but his side look a little overrated in the betting this weekend. The Home Win is odds-on at 8/11 (1.73), with West Ham the 9/2 (5.50) underdogs.

We touched on West Ham’s impressive ‘underdog’ form in our Spotlight email on 20th Jan, and a look at their historical match prices illuminates the point for us: West Ham have been priced at 2/1+ (3.00+) in the Match Result market on 14 occasions this season – but have claimed a draw or win in 12 of those 14 games.

Subscribers to the Bogey Team theory will also note that West Ham have landed ‘win or draw’ bets in 8 of their last 10 Premier League meetings with Southampton. The stats say they can get a result again here...

I’ll be back on Monday with our weekly stats review...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk