Weekend Picks - Going for goals at Upton Park...

Friday 6th May 2016

In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:

• 1,000/1 winner and up all night...
• This week’s standout stats & prices...
• Going for goals at Upton Park...

With the end of season approaching we’re sure to see a few crazy score-lines over the next fortnight...

On that note the stats lead us to Upton Park this weekend, where there’s a decent price available for a high-scoring game in West Ham’s penultimate Premier League fixture at the old ground.

Elsewhere though, the bookies have been pretty tight with their markets this weekend. For example, Liverpool v Watford features a 71% Home record v 71% Away record for Under 3.5 Cards bets, but with nothing to play for in the league for either team Bet365 are taking no risks (and offering no value), chopping the Total Cards line to Under 2.5 Cards.

1,000/1 winner and up all night...

See below for this weekend’s pick of the prices. But first – at giant odds – a nod of congratulation to Prem10 member John B who emailed in to share his win on Leicester...

“Just like to say me and my wallet were very excited by Leicester winning the Prem League...

On 2nd November I noticed they were 3 points behind City and Arsenal (3rd in table) at 1000/1. Chelsea near the drop zone were 80/1. I thought these prices are so wrong so I put £2 ew on Leicester to win (I didn't even think they would finish in the top 4) but I couldn't avoid the bookies’ error...

I was so excited I couldn’t sleep last night and went to work very tired and very excited this morning.... can’t believe they WON!”

Nice work, John. What a fantastic win.

Nothing in the region of 1,000/1 for me this week, but a value price on offer for Saturday afternoon nonetheless...

Having studied the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend.

Going for goals at Upton Park...

West Ham v Swansea – Total Goals

• There have been 4+ goals scored in 6 of West Ham’s last 7 games, and in 3 of Swansea’s last 5

West Ham have just two league games left at Upton Park, before leaving for the Olympic Stadium. The stats say the crowd can expect plenty of end-of-season goalmouth action this weekend...

The Hammers are the top-rated Both Teams to Score team on the ‘League Stats – Goals’ table on our website, with a 65% Home record for that bet this season. Swansea’s Away record is a joint-top 67%.

Recent form suggests goals are in store at both ends, too. West Ham have scored & conceded in 6 of their last 7 games, while Swansea have done the same in 7 of their last 9 Away.

Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in all 7 of those West Ham games, and in 8 of Swansea’s last 9 Away games. West Ham have been particularly prolific in front of goal, scoring 2+ goals in each of those 7 games, keeping just one Clean Sheet in that period.

Looking at the markets and prices available, Both Teams to Score is around 5/6 (1.83) and the Over 2.5 Goals option is just 8/13 (1.62). With both sides’ recent results in mind, odds of 33/20 (2.65) for the higher Over 3.5 Goals line offer a bit of value for us here...

I’ll be back on Monday with a review of the latest stats from across the Premier League.

Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10