Weekend Picks - Ighalo the value at 9/4...
Friday 6th November 2015
In your Prem10 – Weekend Preview email today:
- This weekend’s standout stats and prices...
- Value Picks – at 9/4 and 5/2...
- Stats Picks – Southampton to make it 7 in a row...
Welcome to your Prem10 Weekend Preview...
The big game this weekend is the North London derby between Arsenal and Tottenham. But having studied the stats and markets for all this week’s games, the best opportunities – and betting value – are to be found elsewhere...
Starting with the pick of the prices at Old Trafford...
Man Utd v West Brom – 5/2 for another tight game...
Total Goals:
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in all 5 West Brom Away games (100%)
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in Man Utd’s last 5 games in all comps
- Man Utd have kept Clean Sheets in 5 of their last 6 games overall, West Brom in 4 of their 5 Away games
- These are two of the bottom three sides in the Premier League for Shots per Game – both averaging just 10 Shots
- 3 of Man Utd’s last 4 games have ended 0-0
Man Utd fans booed when Louis van Gaal substituted a striker for a midfielder in their 1-0 win over CSKA Moscow on Tuesday night – but his side got the Clean Sheet, and that’s becoming a hallmark of United under van Gaal...
Under 2.5 Goals is a best price 10/11 (1.91), while First Scorer – No Goalscorer (which covers you for the 0-0 score and also any Own Goals) is a 12/1 (13.00) shot with Betfred and Coral.
I prefer a bet at a price that falls between those two stalls though. Under 1.5 Goals is generally available at 5/2 (3.50) and has paid out in 5 out of 11 United games, giving 6.5 pts profit and a 59% Return on Investment for the season, to level stakes. West Brom have had 6 games falling into that bracket, producing 10 pts profit for a 91% ROI. This looks a good opportunity to follow that trend.
Under 1.5 Goals – best price 27/10 (3.70) with BetVictor, Betfair Sportsbook. See Value Picks below. |
Leicester v Watford – Ighalo the value at 9/4...
Anytime Scorer:
- Watford’s Odion Ighalo is joint 2nd Top Scorer in the Premier League with 7 goals
- In 11 games Ighalo has landed 5 Anytime Scorer bets and 3 First Scorer payouts
- Ighalo has scored 70% of Watford’s goals (7 out of 10)
- Leicester have kept just 1 Clean Sheet in 14 games in all comps this season
Odion Ighalo looks the pick of the Anytime Scorer markets this weekend at a standout 9/4 (3.25)...
Ighalo came off with a dead leg after scoring both of Watford’s goals v West Ham last weekend, but has been reported fit to play at Leicester. He featured in our Spotlight Scorer analysis on Wednesday as one of the four top men for Scorer bets this season, and Ighalo at 2/1+ (3.00+) is a better price than any of the other three men on our list (Jamie Vardy, Graziano Pelle, Olivier Giroud) this weekend.
Anytime Scorer – Ighalo catches the eye at a best price 9/4 (3.25) with Betway and Betfred. See Value Picks below. |
Now for some more of the highest-rated trends in the Premier League – and the pick of the betting options available this weekend...
Liverpool v Crystal Palace
Half Time Draw:
- Bets on the Half Time Draw have paid out in each of Palace’s last 10 Premier League games
- Bets on the Half Time Draw have paid out in 5 out of 6 Liverpool games since Jurgen Klopp took over
The Half Time Draw is available at 6/5 (2.20) – Palace’s stats indicate a bet but Liverpool are still a work in progress under Klopp and I’m not convinced by their Half Time stats yet. No Bet.
West Ham v Everton
Total Goals:
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 out of 5 West Ham Home games (80%), and 8 out of 11 Premier League games overall (73)%)
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 6 of West Ham’s last 7 games in all comps
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Everton’s last 5 league games
Neither of these sides have kept a Clean Sheet in 7 games and the stats say Over 2.5 Goals is the top-rated bet here. That’s a general 3/4 (1.75) shot this week but that price is to be expected – no particular value for us there. No Bet.
Norwich v Swansea
Both Teams to Score:
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 9 out of 11 Norwich games (82%), including 4 out of 5 at Home (80%)
- Norwich are the only team in the Premier League yet to keep a Clean Sheet this season
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 4 out of 5 Swansea Away games (80%)
- Swansea haven’t kept a Clean Sheet in any of their 5 Away games
The stats make this game our top-rated Both Teams to Score match-up of the week. Norwich haven’t managed to stop any opponent scoring against them so far, but have held their up front – finding the net in all but one of their Home games. Odds of 8/11 (1.73) look fair enough but there are better prices elsewhere for me this week. No Bet.
Sunderland v Southampton – Saints to make it 7 in a row...
Team with Most Bookings:
- Southampton are our top-rated team for Most Cards/ Booking Points bets this season – landing that bet 9 times out of 11 (82%)
- Southampton have received the Most Cards/ Bookings in each of their last 6 Premier League games
- Sunderland haven’t received the Most Cards/ Bookings in any of their 3 games since Sam Allardyce took over
- Southampton have had a man Sent Off in each of their last two games
We successfully latched onto Southampton’s ‘Most Bookings’ trend last week, and once again the bookies have made them the underdogs in that market – despite what the stats say. Southampton have landed this bet 3 more times than any other Premier League side this season, and they look the team to follow in this market once again.
Most Booking Points – Southampton is a best price 8/5 (2.60) with William Hill. Also available, Southampton 0 Card Handicap at 11/8 (2.38) with Bet365. The likes of 888 Sport and Unibet will also have a Most Bookings market up ahead of kick off. See Stats Picks below. |
Prem10 Picks...
In summary, this week’s recommended bets are...
Value Picks – the pick of the best value prices on offer:
- Man Utd v West Brom – Under 1.5 Goals @ 27/10 (3.70) with BetVictor
- Leicester v Watford – Anytime Scorer – Odion Ighalo @ 9/4 (3.25) with Betway
Stats Picks – top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:
- Sunderland v Southampton – Most Booking Points – Southampton @ 8/5 (2.60) with William Hill
Latest Premier League odds here |
Enjoy the weekend games. I’ll be back on Monday with your Review email, with an update on all the latest stats and trends...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
