Review - Antonio proves value at 13/2...
Monday 7th March 2016
In your Prem10 – Midweek Picks email today:
- Antonio proves value at 13/2...
- What the stats say after Week 29…
- Coming up this week...
Antonio proves value at 13/2...
We managed to hunt out a couple of great value prices last week – with the standout bet proving to be Michail Antonio at 13/2...
Antonio scored the first of West Ham’s goals as they came from 0-2 down to win 3-2 at Everton. The West Ham forward has now landed Anytime Scorer bets in 4 of his last 6 Premier League games.
The stats and form drew our attention to Antonio. But it was the price that ultimately led us to the bet....
Antonio was as short as 10/3 (4.33) in the Anytime Scorer market – but a handful of bookies were offering us 13/2 (7.50). That’s a significant difference in price, and great value about one of the league’s in-form strikers.
And that’s what our Prem10 Picks are all about – finding the value prices from the weekly match markets.
The stats are our starting point. But we only bet when we see value. So while the likes of Harry Kane @ 5/4 (2.25) and Sergio Aguero @ 4/7 (1.57) both scored at the weekend – we were more interested in the bigger prices further down the list.
All in all it was a good week for our Picks last week – so far in March we’ve had five bet selections with two payouts. At odds of 14/5 (3.80) and 13/2 (7.50) last week’s advice produced a good profit. At prices like that we will back more losers than winners. But the rewards of those value prices means they really do count when they come in.
- Elsewhere over the weekend our two losing Picks from three selections were 5/1 (6.00) for Stoke’s Marko Arnautovic to score v Chelsea, and Sunderland +3 Corner Handicap at 11/10 (2.10) at Southampton...
- Stoke got on the score-sheet as the stats anticipated (1-1), but their goal came from Mame Biram Diouf – with his first strike since September. While Southampton tonked Sunderland 12-2 on the corners, their pressure eventually paying off with a 90th minute goal to snatch a 1-1 draw
What the stats say after Week 29…
Here are some of the standout stats on my radar after the weekend Premier League results. All good ammo for upcoming games and potential future bets...
- Chelsea 1 Stoke 1 – Chelsea have now failed to keep a Clean Sheet in each of their last 8 Premier League Home games
- Everton 2 West Ham 3 – Everton have kept just 2 Clean Sheets in 15 Premier League Home games this season
- Tottenham 2 Arsenal 2 – Corners = 9-2 – Tottenham remain our top-rated Most Corners team, and have now landed that bet in 12 out of 15 Home games (80%)
- West Brom 1 Man Utd 0 – West Brom have now won 10 games, and 7 of those 10 wins have paid out on the 1-0 Correct Score. No score-line has paid out more often on any other team in the Premier League this season
- Man City 4 Aston Villa 0 – 8 of Man City’s 10 Home wins have been by more than 1 goal, landing -1 Match Handicap bets
- Swansea 1 Norwich 0 – Cards = 7 Yellows (70 pts) – Swansea are our top-rated team for Over 3.5 Cards bets, with that bet now having paid out in 11 of 15 Home games (71%)
- Crystal Palace 1 Liverpool 2 – Palace stay bottom of the Premier League’s Last 6 Form chart (W0 D1 L5), and are now without a win in 12 games
As for the Outright Winner market, pre-season 5,000/1 outsiders Leicester are now a general 11/10 (2.10) for the title – reaching their shortest price of the season to date.
Leicester are 5 pts clear with 9 games left to play. Whatever happens from now on in, it’s going to be an exciting end to the season...
Coming up this week…
I’ll be back on Wednesday with my latest Spotlight article – shining a light on some more little-known stats and profitable Premier League betting trends.
Then we’ll have our weekend Picks and value analysis in your Friday email. The FA Quarter Finals mean we have just the 6 games to look at in the league, but with half of those on TV we’ll have plenty of markets and prices to work with.
P.S
Before all that, I’ll be identifying the best betting value in the midweek Champions League games on Tuesday & Wednesday...
If you’d like to get my Champions League Picks and value analysis, get onboard my dedicated Champions League Bet service with a Free Trial here.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
