Review - Another 'bore draw' for Man Utd...
Monday 7th December 2015
In your Prem10 – Review email today:
- Does anyone want to win this Premier League title?
- Another ‘bore draw’ for Man Utd..
- What the stats say after Week 15…
- Coming up this week…
The 2015/16 Premier League season continues to surprise.
Leicester City sit 2 pts clear at the top of the table. After Saturday’s 3-0 win at Swansea – their 5th win in 6 games – Leicester have been trimmed to 28/1 for the title. At the start of the season they were a 5,000/1 chance.
And with a hat-trick in that game from Riyad Mahrez, Leicester now have two of the top three players in the Premier League Top Scorer chart this season.
Mahrez (10 goals) is now 33/1 to win Top Scorer, with his teammate Jamie Vardy (14 goals) the 7/4 favourite. Back in August, Mahrez was 250/1 and Vardy was 500/1.
It’s a funny ol’ game.
Does anyone want to win the Premier League?
Several of the other teams near the top of the table faltered at the weekend. Producing a series of ‘shock’ results at outsider prices:
Chelsea lost 0-1 at Home against 8/1 underdogs Bournemouth...
Man City were beaten 3-1 at 4/1 outsiders Stoke...
Newcastle landed odds of 5/1 when beating Liverpool, 2-0...
West Ham held Man Utd to a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford, with the draw a 3/1 chance...
Tottenham could only manage a 1-1 at West Brom, with the draw at 7/2...
What the stats say after Week 15…
It was a topsy-turvy weekend in the Premier League, across the board – with two of our Picks going down in frustrating fashion...
Bournemouth failed to land a payout from the +2 Corner Handicap for the first time all season. That was one of my Stats Picks, and before the weekend that option had paid out in 14 out of 14 league games. To rub salt in the wound, Bournemouth’s winning goal actually came from a corner kick. Corners result = Chelsea 11 Bournemouth 4.
Tottenham’s top-rated Most Corners stats remained true to form though, with Spurs winning the Corners Match Bet, 6-3. That was my other weekend Stats Pick, at odds of 8/11.
At bigger prices with our Value Picks, we were two minutes away from a 3/1 payout on Southampton to win the Most Cards/ Booking Points. They led the Yellow Card count 1-0, until Aston Villa picked up 2 Cards, coming in the 89th and 90th minute. A near miss there but the fact remains that Southampton – our top-rated Most Cards team this season – were a value price at 3/1 in that market.
And finally, Jamie Vardy’s record breaking 11-game scoring streak came to an end as he failed to find the net in Leicester’s 3-0 win at Swansea. Vardy’s 9/2 First Scorer price made him a weekend Value Pick selection – it turned out to be the wrong game for him, but for the season as a whole that option at that price is running at 18 pts profit and a 120% ROI to level stakes.
Another ‘bore draw’ for Man Utd...
In a weekend full of strange results, in a season full of the surprises, Man Utd remain a ‘steady-Eddy’ outfit across a variety of markets:
- Man Utd have now had 4 goalless draws this season – producing more 0-0 Correct Score payouts than any other team in the Premier League
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 5 of Man Utd’s last 6 games – with 3 of those ending 0-0
- Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 13 out of 15 Man Utd games (87%), including 9 of their last 10
- Man Utd have kept 5 Clean Sheets in their last 7 games
As I flagged up in your Spotlight email on 18th Nov, Man Utd’s stats under Louis van Gaal show they are shaping up to be a ‘low’ team – low Corners, low Goals Scored and low Goals Conceded.
Coming up this week...
I’ll be back with your next Spotlight feature on Wednesday, with a closer look at some of the stats & markets proving profitable on particular teams this season.
Followed by your Weekend Picks on Friday, when once again we’ll be targeting the best value prices available about the week’s standout stats – with the fixture list including Leicester v Chelsea live on Sky Sports...
Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
