Weekend Picks - Leicester nerve-jangler at 9/4...
Friday 8th April 2016
In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:
- This week’s standout stats & prices...
- Leicester nerve-jangler at 9/4...
- Goals value at Villa Park...
- More Yellows for Canaries...
- Hornets to sting again...
Another big weekend ahead in the Premier League – and once again we’re hunting out the best value prices from the across the markets...
With 30+ games of form in the book we have some strong stats to work with at the moment. And this weekend the fixture list has thrown up no fewer than four games where a particular price catches the eye...
Having studied the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend. Four ‘stats bets’ all available at favourable prices...
Leicester nerve-jangler at 9/4...
Sunderland v Leicester (TV) – Total Goals:
- 5 of Sunderland’s last 10 Home games have seen 1 or less goals scored
- Leicester have won 5 of their last 6 games by a 1-0 score-line
A huge game on Sky Sports on Sunday lunchtime with Leicester going for the title and Sunderland desperate to avoid relegation. This should be tense and everything points to a tight game with a low score-line to match...
Leicester’s most common score this season has been the 1-0 win (x7), while Sunderland’s most common score has been the 1-0 defeat (x7).
Putting two & two together we can make a pretty quick case for the Leicester 1-0 Correct Score at 13/2 (7.50) here. But football’s not that simple and it could pay to look to the Total Goals brackets instead with the ‘0-1 Goals’ (Under 1.5 Goals) option available at 2/1+ (3.00+)...
That covers the 0-0 draw and a 1-0 win to either side. Sunderland have drawn 4 in a row including a 0-0 at Home v West Brom last week and another goalless draw is not out of the question.
Under 2.5 Goals is the favourite in the standard Over/ Under market at 8/11 (1.73) but we can get a better return by following those low score-lines and going for the alternative Under 1.5 Goals option...
Under 1.5 Goals is a best price 9/4 (3.25) with Bet365, 11/5 (3.20) Betfred, 21/10 (3.10) BetVictor, William Hill, Ladbrokes. |
Goals value at Villa Park...
Aston Villa v Bournemouth – Total Goals:
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 5 of Villa’s last 7 games
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in Bournemouth’s last 4 games
Backing Villa’s 7-game losing streak to continue would be the ‘obvious’ pick at first glance, but Over 2.5 Goals is the value in this game...
Villa have conceded 15 goals in their last 4 Home games (losing all 4). While Bournemouth have found the net at least once in all 6 of their visits to Bottom Half sides this season.
With Villa cut adrift at the bottom of the table and Bournemouth now safe from relegation, the Match Result market looks best left alone here. Odds of 6/5 (2.20) for the Away Win don’t appeal considering Bournemouth have won just 3 of 7 Away games v Bottom Half sides.
However, the recent form stats suggest Over 2.5 Goals should be the favourite in the Over/ Under market, when in fact it’s the opposite...
Over 2.5 Goals – best price 5/4 (2.25) with Betfair Sportsbook, 6/5 (2.20) BetVictor, Coral. |
More Yellows for Canaries...
Crystal Palace v Norwich – Most Cards
- Norwich have received the Most Cards in their last 4 Away games
- Palace haven’t received Most Cards in any of their last 5 games
We landed a Most Cards winner on Norwich in their last Away game at West Brom – and they look value in that market again here...
Palace have a ‘clean’ record for Most Cards/ Booking Points at Home, giving a return on that bet in just 4 of 16 games (25%) at Selhurst Park this season.
Norwich on the other hand are our top-rated Away team in this market with a 75% strike-rate (Most Cards in 12 out of 16 games).
The stats are heavily in the Away team’s favour, and I’d expect a team with Norwich’s Cards record to be shorter than the prices available...
Most Cards – Norwich is a best price 5/6 (1.83) with 888 Sport and Unibet. Alternative Card Handicap – Norwich 0 Card Handicap is the same bet with a different name at 5/6 with Bet365. Most Booking Points – Norwich is 4/5 (1.80) with William Hill. |
You have to shop around a bit for markets like that one, with the ‘Most Bookings’ page on Oddschecker failing to pull through any of the three options listed above...
- To find this bet on the 888 Sport website, go to: Sports > Football > England > Premier League > Crystal Palace v Norwich City > Cards
Hornets to sting again...
Watford v Everton – Most Cards:
- Watford have received Most Cards in 7 of their last 8 Home games
- Everton have received Most Cards in just 1 of their last 8 Away games
Watford are the 2nd ranked team on our site for Most Bookings bets this season, and as the stats above show – recent form points squarely to the Home team here.
With that in mind it’s surprising to see the bookies making this one a 50-50 shot with both teams around the 5/4 (2.25) mark...
Watford are also 2nd in the Premier League for total Cards this season (58 Yellows), while Everton are 19th of 20 teams (36 Yellows).
In fact, Everton have registered No Cards at all in 4 of their last 8 Away games, so a single Yellow Card for Watford could even be enough to land this...
Watford 0 Card Handicap is a best price 13/10 (2.30) with Bet365. Most Cards – Watford is 5/4 (2.25) with 888 Sport, Unibet. Most Booking Points – Watford is 23/20 (2.15) with William Hill. |
Weekend Picks...
In summary, my pick of the prices this week are...
- Sunderland v Leicester – Under 1.5 Goals @ 9/4 (3.25) with Bet365
- Aston Villa v Bournemouth – Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/4 (2.25) with Betfair Sportsbook
- Crystal Palace v Norwich – Most Cards – Norwich @ 5/6 (1.83) with 888 Sport
- Watford v Everton – Watford 0 Card Handicap (Most Cards) @ 13/10 (2.30) with Bet365
Latest Premier League odds here |
Enjoy the weekend games. I’ll be back on Monday with a review of the latest stats & results...
Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10 |
