Spotlight - 6 players to follow and one that got away...
Wednesday 9th March 2016
In your Prem10 – Spotlight email today:
- The one that got away...
- Spotlight – 6 players on best behaviour...
- In search of value this weekend...
Get the violins out. Send your donations and condolences in. I have some heart-wrenching news.
It’s a stomach-churning tale. And it goes a little something like this...
The one that got away...
As you may know, every week I post my Premier League predictions on our sister site, Football Betting Stats. We gather up Paul Merson and Mark Lawrenson’s predictions on Sky Sports and the BBC, too. And readers join in with me and post their own Correct Score selections in our weekly Mini League. All good fun...
Now, most weeks I also indulge myself with a little bet on my ‘perfect ten.’ Not every week. But most weeks. A pound or 50p on the Premier League Match Result ten-fold. I call it my Lottery ticket.
Most weeks I’m lucky if I get three or four right. Sometimes it gets exciting if things are looking good at half time on a Saturday afternoon. But it’s only a pound. And like I said – it’s all good fun...
Last week I did not strike said £1 bet.
Last week I did not place all ten selections in a 29,492/1 accumulator.
Do I really need to tell you what happened next...?
GAME |
ME |
MERSON |
LAWRO |
| Tottenham v Arsenal |
2-2 |
1-1 |
1-1 |
| Chelsea v Stoke |
1-1 |
1-2 |
2-0 |
| Everton v West Ham |
1-2 |
2-1 |
1-1 |
| Man City v Aston Villa |
4-1 |
4-0 |
3-0 |
| Newcastle v Bournemouth |
1-2 |
2-1 |
2-1 |
| Southampton v Sunderland |
1-1 |
2-1 |
2-0 |
| Swansea v Norwich |
2-0 |
1-1 |
2-1 |
| Watford v Leicester |
1-2 |
1-1 |
1-2 |
| Crystal Palace v Liverpool |
1-3 |
2-1 |
1-1 |
| West Brom v Man Utd |
1-0 |
1-2 |
1-1 |
My only consolation... well, at least I beat Merson and Lawrenson!
So there you have it. My sob story. Form a circle and holds hands. Close your eyes and spare a moment for me.
Football is indeed a funny ol’ game, and sometimes we football fans do get on the right side of those crazy-big prices. (Just look at the Leicester City supporter that cashed in his 5,000/1 bet for £72k last week.)
Spotlight – 6 players on best behaviour...
Now I’ve got that tale of woe out of my system – down to business. The real reason I’m writing to you today is to share my latest Spotlight findings with you...
This week I’ve been looking at the ‘Rules & Governance’ pages on the FA website.
It always pays to put team and player statistics into context. Additional information can help us find or, just as importantly, avoid a bet...
That’s the certainly the case when it comes to backing players in the ‘First Card’ and ‘To Be Shown a Card’ markets.
The FA rules tell us that:
If a player reaches 10 Yellow Cards on or before Sunday 10th April, they will receive an automatic suspension.
That is useful information. The Team Stats on our site tell us which players get the most cards for each Premier League team. But at this stage of the season, with the threat of punishment for consistent bad behaviour hanging over them, those frequent offenders may all of a sudden become little angels. At least until the FA’s second-Sunday-in-April deadline has passed, anyway...
Norwich’s Alex Tettey has already served his ban for reaching 10 Yellow Cards this season. The FA site tells us that these three players are on 9 Yellows and therefore, are just one away from being suspended:
Jack Colback (Newcastle)
Eric Dier (Tottenham)
Claudio Jacob (West Brom)
And a look further down the season-to-date stats tells us that these three players also need to stay in line for the next couple of games, with 8 cards each to their name:
Diego Costa (Chelsea)
Billy Jones (Sunderland)
Lucas (Liverpool)
In search of value this weekend...
A good example there of why it pays to delve deeper into the stats, and to take into account other potential influential factors, too. That’s the job of my weekly emails and analysis.
Our website is packed with bet specific stats for all 20 Premier League teams – giving us a great starting point. But when it comes to the weekend and it’s time to bet – we need to be weighing up the markets & prices... team news, managerial changes... the upcoming fixture list and much more besides. My goal at Prem10 is to do as much of that work for you as possible.
I’ll be in touch on Friday with our weekend value Picks. And I promise I won’t mention my 10 ‘correct predictions’ and my 29,492/1 ‘near miss’ ever again. Honest...
Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
