Review - One final chance for the Hammers...
Monday 9th May 2016
In your Prem10 – Review email today:
- Right to avoid the low lines...
- Goals galore indeed...
- One final chance for the Hammers...
Right to avoid the low lines...
We were right to avoid Bet365’s lower-than-usual Under 2.5 Cards market for yesterday’s Liverpool v Watford game...
Our stats highlighted the game as an Under 3.5 Cards opportunity with Liverpool’s 71% Home record matching up well with Watford’s 71% Away record for that bet.
However my aim is to find the betting value and we weren’t getting that with the bookies nudging the line down to 2.5 Cards with the end of the season approaching.
As it turned out there were 3 Yellow Cards in Liverpool’s 2-0 win. Meaning the stats were right to point us in the direction of Under 3.5, and we were correct to stick to our guns and refuse to take the lower, poor value, 2.5 Cards line.
And I did uncover one piece of value in the Goals markets at Upton Park...
Goals galore indeed...
The stats said to expect goals between West Ham and Swansea, but it was a bit of a surprise to see the Away team weighing in with four...
Swansea’s 4-1 win meant our weekend value pick on Over 3.5 Goals at 33/20 (2.65) came in with room to spare. The Over 3.5 Goals option was preferable to the odds-on prices of 5/6 (1.83) for Both Teams to Score and 8/13 (1.62) for the standard Over 2.5 Goals line.
- There have now been Over 3.5 Goals scored in 7 of West Ham’s last 8 games, and in 4 of Swansea’s last 6
One final chance for the Hammers...
That was West Ham’s last ever Saturday afternoon game at Upton Park. They still have one more Premier League Home game before moving to the Olympic Stadium for next season...
The Hammers take on Man Utd tomorrow night (Tuesday), live on Sky Sports. Man Utd won 2-1 at Upton Park in the FA Cup not long ago – let’s see how the goals form & markets pan out this time...
I’ll be back tomorrow afternoon with a look at any potential value in the four midweek Premier League games, including that West Ham game. Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10 |
