Review - The Saints are now sinners...
Monday 9th November 2015
In your Prem10 – Review email today:
- Saints are now sinners...
- Denied by an injury-time Penalty – again...
- What the stats say after Week 12...
- Coming up...
Saints are now sinners...
It’s official. Southampton, AKA The Saints, are now sinners. Bad boys. A Yellow Card machine...
Okay, so maybe I’m milking the saints/ sinners line a little. But Southampton’s Yellow Card stats are significant:
- Last season, Southampton averaged 1.5 Yellow Cards For per game
- This season, Southampton are averaging 2.25 Yellow Cards per game
Following on from that, Southampton are currently clear at the top of our Most Booking Points stats. Landing that bet on 3 occasions more than any other Premier League team this season:
- Bets on Southampton to receive the Most Cards or Most Booking Points have paid out in 10 out of 12 games (83%)
What’s more, Saturday’s 1-0 win at Sunderland – where the hosts got 1 Yellow Card and Southampton got 3 – was the 7th consecutive game in which the Saints have landed that bet.
This is turning into one of the stats bets of the season. Southampton were 8/5 (2.60) underdogs to win the Most Bookings at the weekend, and even bigger outsiders at 3/1 (4.00) against Bournemouth the week before. If the bookies keeping on underrating Southampton in that market – we’ll keep on looking to back them.
Stat Pick:
- Most Booking Points – Southampton @ 8/5 – WON
Denied by an injury-time Penalty – again...
For the second weekend running, a last-gasp Penalty kick cost us a payout...
A fortnight ago Man City missed a Penalty with literally the last kick of the game v Norwich – if that had gone in City would’ve covered the -1 Match Handicap.
This week Man Utd scored an injury-time Penalty against West Brom, to win 2-0. At 1-0 with the 90 minutes up we were set for a 27/10 (3.70) Value Pick payout on Under 1.5 Goals, a result that would’ve made it a profitable weekend for our Picks overall.
As it was, I was left with a sinking feeling as I sat in front of Soccer Saturday when – with the Full Time scores rolling in – Jeff Stelling yelped out, “Penalty at Old Trafford...”
That’s enough sulking though. The bigger picture here is that that stats led us in the right direction, and we were very close to landing a nice price winner.
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have now paid out in all 6 of West Brom’s Premier League Away games (100%), and in 6 Man Utd games in a row in all comps
Value Pick:
- Under 1.5 Goals @ 27/10 – LOST
Moving onto the Scorer stats and Premier League Top Scorer, Jamie Vardy, continues to tear up the record books...
Vardy scored his 12th goal of the season in Leicester’s 2-1 win over Watford – finding the net for the 9th consecutive Premier League game. Only Ruud van Nistelrooy’s 10-game scoring streak stands in front of Vardy now.
- Vardy has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 10 out of 12 games (83%)
In that same game we avoided the Even Money (2.00) available for Vardy and instead went for Watford’s top scorer Odion Ighalo in the Anytime Scorer market at 9/4 (3.25)...
Ighalo hit the post and then didn’t get the chance (unlike Vardy) to take his team’s Penalty when the opportunity came along. Again, we went for the value price. And I’ll continue to search out and target the most appealing prices – as well as the highest-rated statistical trends – each week.
Value Pick:
- Anytime Scorer – Odion Ighalo @ 9/4 – LOST
What the stats say after Week 12…
Here are some more of the top trends, that all continued at the weekend...
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 11 out of 12 Leicester games (92%)
- Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 92% of Man Utd games
- Man Utd have kept 5 Clean Sheets in a row in all comps
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 10 out of 12 Chelsea games (83%)
- Chelsea have lost 7 of their 12 Premier League games, and 3 in a row
- Bets on the Half Time Draw have paid out in each of Crystal Palace’s last 11 league games
- Tottenham are unbeaten in 11 games – the longest unbeaten streak in the Premier League this season
Plenty of highly-rated trends across a number of different teams and markets there – all of which will be in our thinking when your next Prem10 – Weekend Preview email comes along on Friday 20th November.
Coming up this week…
There are no games for us this weekend – the domestic leagues go on hold for International Friendly fixtures – but the Premier League returns the week after with the likes of Man City v Liverpool on the TV schedule.
Before that, I’ll be in touch on Friday this week with your latest Spotlight email – taking an in-depth look at some of the current key stats and profitable betting trends in the Premier League.
- And remember, you can view our Team Stats for all 20 teams in over 30 betting markets on our website. And catch up on all the latest emails and Spotlight features in the archive.
Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
