Weekend Picks - Swans can spring a surprise...

Friday 11th March 2016

In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:

• This week’s standout stats & prices...
• Swans can spring a surprise... 

With the FA Cup Quarter Finals taking place this weekend we have a reduced set of Premier League fixtures to look at...

Limited opportunities this week...

Just 5 games on the list this week and to be honest, they’re not the best match-ups on either the stats or the prices. One game does appeal though with Swansea looking a bit of Away-day value at Bournemouth (see below).

We’ve had a profitable March so far with 14/5 (3.80) and 13/2 (7.50) payouts and we don’t need to go chasing other bets, especially when the prices don’t suit...

Tottenham are a standout stats selection for the Most Corners at Aston Villa, but odds of just 1/3 (1.33) don’t appeal. And while Stoke v Southampton sees our two top-rated Under 2.5 Goals team going head-to-head, odds of 4/7 (1.57) are not worth us getting involved.

Our Anytime Scorer bets have produced a 67% ROI this season and that was achieved by backing players at healthy value prices. This weekend a player like Sergio Aguero (10 goals in 10 games in all comps for Man City) stands out on the stats, but offers no particular value at odds-on to score – as short as 4/7 (1.57).

There’ll be plenty more chances for us to bet between now and the end of the season. But for this week, just one price catches the eye...

Having studied the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend...

Swans can spring a surprise...

Bournemouth v Swansea – Draw No Bet

• These two have identical records v fellow Bottom Half teams this season – Bournemouth Home W2 D3 L2, Swansea Away W2 D3 L2

Bournemouth look a little too short in the Match Result market here – they are odds-on at 19/20 (1.95) at best, while Swansea are as big as 7/2 (4.50)...

Both teams come into this having each won their last 2 games, helping them both move away from the Relegation zone. However, Swansea are a couple of points behind Bournemouth and with both teams having equally tough run-ins to come (including games against Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool for both) – this one will be earmarked as an important fixture.

The ‘results v Bottom Half’ stats above show there’s little between these sides, and a 2-2 draw at Swansea earlier in the season supports that point.

A closer look at recent results shows that just 1 of Swansea’s last 14 Premier League games has been settled by more than 1 goal either way. That suggests a close score-line could be in store here – and with that in mind Swansea as the underdog could prove a bit of value...

Swansea are a general 5/6 (1.83) to avoid defeat (Double Chance Win or Draw), but I prefer the Draw No Bet market offering a better payout for the win – with stakes returned if it’s a draw.

Enjoy the weekend football. I’ll be back on Wednesday with a stats review, and a look ahead at next week’s full set of games...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
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