Review - Home profits from the Hornets...
Monday 11th April 2016
In your Prem10 – Review email today:
- Home profits from the Hornets...
- 60 seconds to go...
- Finding value in the Cards markets...
- What the stats say after Week 33...
- Coming up this week...
Home profits from the Hornets...
The stats led us to some Home team value at the weekend, with Watford landing the Most Cards against Everton...
As if often (but not always) the case, the Away side’s chances of getting the most attention from the Referee had been overrated.
Our stats going into Saturday’s game said that the Home side Watford should be clear favourites for the Most Cards – and we took a value price of 13/10 (2.30) on Watford. Cards result: Watford 2 Yellows (20 pts), Everton 1 Yellow (10 pts).
That result edges Watford into 1st place on the League Stats – Cards & Booking Points table on our site for ‘Most Bookings’ bets this season:
- Watford have now landed Most Cards/ Bookings bets in 8 of their last 9 Home games
- In contrast, Everton have landed that bet in just 1 of their last 9 Away
60 seconds to go...
Our weekend Picks made a small profit overall with 2 payouts from the 4 selections, including that Watford game...
In our other featured games Crystal Palace got the Most Cards for the first time in 5 games, after we backed the highly-rated Norwich @ 5/6 (1.83). Cards result: Palace 2 Yellows Norwich 1 Yellow. The Canaries remain our top-ranked Away team for the Most Cards bet though with an unrivalled 71% strike-rate for the season.
Elsewhere we found some value in the Total Goals market at Aston Villa where the Over 2.5 Goals option was somewhat generously priced up as the ‘outsider’ in the Over/ Under market @ 5/4 (2.25). Bournemouth beat Villa 2-1 to settle that one.
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have now paid out in 6 of Villa’s last 8 games
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have now paid out in Bournemouth’s last 5 games
And finally on Sunday afternoon we were less than 60 seconds away from a great result at Sunderland...
Jamie Vardy scored his second goal of the game in the fifth & final minute of Injury Time to give Leicester a 2-0 win. Until that late, late goal on the counter attack Leicester were on course for what would have been a fifth successive 1-0 win – and a 9/4 (3.25) payout for us in the Under 1.5 Goals market.
A very close call there but we did our homework correctly with the stats putting us in the right ballpark & the price appealing on Friday.
Finding value in the Cards markets...
The aim of our Picks is to find value prices in the match-day markets, with the stats as our guide. If you’re following our Picks, it’s been a profitable few weeks with over 9 pts profit to level stakes since the start of March.
Looking deeper at the numbers it’s interesting to note that our selections in the Cards & Booking Points markets have produced 5 payouts from the last 7 and a healthy overall 25% ROI for the season. Suggesting the bookies are serving us up a bit of value on bets like that Watford ‘Most Cards’ pick at the weekend.
I’ll be on the lookout for more Cards & Bookings value – and standout prices across all & any markets – in your Friday emails from now until the end of the season. And with over 30 games of form in the book we certainly have a strong body of stats to work with right now...
What the stats say after Week 33...
Wins for 1st place Leicester & 2nd place Tottenham kept the title race going along with 7 pts between the top two with 5 games each left to play.
At the bottom of the table Villa, Newcastle, Sunderland and Norwich all lost and with 16th place Palace winning the Relegation betting is now a straight shootout between those bottom teams.
Looking at our stats, these eye-catching trends could feature in our upcoming match analysis and bets...
Tight at the back...
- Sunderland 0 Leicester 2... 6 of Leicester’s last 7 games have paid out on Under 2.5 Goals bets – and Leicester have kept 5 consecutive Cleans Sheets
Rock bottom...
- Villa 1 Bournemouth 2... Villa have lost 8 games in a row
- Southampton 3 Newcastle 1... Newcastle are 7 games without a win (losing 6)
On best behaviour...
- Watford 1 Everton 1 (Everton 1 Yellow Card)... Everton have received 1 Yellow Card or Less in 11 of their last 12 games
- West Ham 3 Arsenal 3 (Arsenal No Yellow Cards)... Arsenal have received No Cards in 3 of their last 5 games
Goals galore...
- Man City 2 West Brom 1... Man City are our top-rated Over 2.5 Goals team – paying out in 82% of Home games
- West Ham 3 Arsenal 3 – Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 5 of West Ham’s last 7 games, with the Hammers scoring AND conceding 2 or more goals in each of their last 4 games
Corner kings...
- Liverpool 4 Stoke 1 (Corners = 6-3) – Liverpool are now our top-rated Most Corners team (71% for the season), landing that bet in each of their last 7 Home games
A Friend indeed...
- Watford 1 Everton 1 (Total Cards = 3 Yellows) – Under 3.5 Cards bets have now paid out in 10 of the last 12 Premier League games that Referee Kevin Friend has taken charge of
Plenty of intriguing trends and potential bets for us in the numbers – let’s see what the markets come with for us at the weekend...
Coming up this week…
I’ll be back on Wednesday with your latest Spotlight feature – focusing on a little-known & profitable Premier League betting market, with the next fixtures in mind…
Followed by your Weekend Picks email on Friday, when once again our mission will be to hunt out the best value prices from the weekend markets.
Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10 |
