Alive and kicking - what the stats say after Week One...
Tuesday 11th August 2015
In your Prem10 email today:
- Alive and kicking...
- What the stats say after Week One...
- Team-by-Team Guide – top bets from last season...
- Your Season Bets Report – 66/1 Pelle off the mark...
- Look out for your Prem10 weekend email on Friday...
Alive and kicking...
The 2015/16 Premier League season kicked off with a clear reminder as to why, here at Prem10, we choose to look beyond the ‘obvious’ Home Win bets on the weekly fixture list...
Instead we use the stats to search for more profitable and reliable ways to profit, from alternative or less well-publicised markets – such as Goals, Corners, Cards & Booking Points (see below).
Big guns Arsenal and Chelsea both came unstuck on the opening weekend. Arsenal losing at Home 0-2 v West Ham and champions Chelsea drawing 2-2 with Swansea at Stamford Bridge – both having been short odds-on prices to win.
What the stats say after Week One...
Week One is often a perilous one for match betting and as stated in last Friday’s email, I won’t be having many match bets until there’s a suitable array of form in the book and/ or evidence to base our selections on.
That doesn’t mean I’m not looking though – far from it. Over the weekend I applied some of the standout stats from last season to the relevant opening day teams & games.
One game isn’t much to draw conclusions from of course but it’s worth noting that these strong 2014/15 trends continued in Week One of the new season:
Bournemouth 0 Aston Villa 1:
- Last season bets on Aston Villa to win by a 1-goal Winning Margin paid out in 9 of their 10 league wins (90%). That narrow 1-goal margin was on show again on Saturday
Chelsea 2 Swansea 2:
- Chelsea are NOT a reliable Most Corners or Corner Handicap bet at Home. The champions had the best Home Win record last season but didn’t convert that into Corner dominance, landing -2 and -3 Corner Handicap bets in less than half of their Home games (47% and 37% respectively). The corner tally on Saturday evening: Chelsea 4 corners Swansea 8 corners. The Away team would have been a good odds-against price for the Most Corners there, and that’s a trend we’ll be keeping an eye on
Everton 2 Watford 2:
- Last season Everton were one of the ‘cleanest’ sides in the Premier League, receiving the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 2 of their 19 Home games (11%). On Saturday bets on visiting side Watford paid out in that market, with the Cards score Everton 1 Yellow Card (10 pts) Watford 2 Yellow Cards (20 pts)
Leicester 4 Sunderland 2:
- Over 3.5 Cards bets paid out in 71% of Sunderland games last season, with Sunderland landing Most Cards/ Booking Points bets in 74% of Away games. Both those trends continued on Day One: Leicester 2 Yellow Cards (20 pts) Sunderland 4 Yellow Cards (40 pts)
I’m being selective here, of course. If those ‘same old story’ examples were the same for every team then making money from the early season games would be a walk in the park. But it is worth noting the trends that continue.
At the other end of the spectrum, one of last season’s most prolific stats bets didn’t carry on from where it left off in 2014/15. But that doesn’t mean we should cross it off our list just yet...
West Brom 0 Man City 3:
- Man City landed Most Cards/ Booking Points bets in 74% of Away games last season, with average odds of 11/8 producing a 75% Return on Investment for the season. That trend wasn’t in evidence on Monday night though – West Brom 4 Yellow Cards (40 pts) Man City 1 Yellow Card (10 pts)
Team-by-Team Guide – top bets from last season...
The above 2014/15 stats came from our Team-by-Team Guide. I sent this out by email in two parts over the summer, but if you’d like to get a version all in one place then click on the link below to get the full report...
In the Team-by-Team Guide you’ll find the most profitable stats, bets and trends from last season, for EVERY team from A- Z. Along with some early ideas for how we can cash-in this season:
View our Team-by-Team Guide here
Your Season Bets Report – 66/1 Pelle off the mark...
On Friday we kicked off our 2015/16 betting with a look at the stats, bets and prices available for the big season-long markets – Outright Winner, Relegation and Top Goalscorer. As well as a couple of lesser-known areas worth targeting, such as the Premier League Dual Forecast and Without the Big 6 markets.
If you want a reminder of the bets, the stats and my verdict on the teams, markets and prices, you can view the report again here...
View your 2015/16 Season Bets Report here
A quick update on one of our picks after the opening weekend – it’s extremely early days of course, but it was good to see Southampton striker Graziano Pelle get off the mark with a goal on Sunday...
We flagged up Pelle @ 66/1 and 50/1 Each Way in our Season Bets Report. Pelle is now a general 40/1 shot – and with the bookies still offering Each Way terms of 1/4 odds for 4 places, he still appeals at that 40/1 price today. So if you haven’t got your bets on yet, there’s still plenty of time to get on this week. The 2015/16 Outright markets won’t change much between now and the weekend games.
Look out for your Prem10 weekend email on Friday...
I’ll be back on Friday with your first Prem10 weekend email of the season – looking at specific games, stats, markets and any potential betting opportunities for us. Plus, more on the new features and tools on our website that can help you find the best bets in the Premier League all season long.
P.S
And finally...
One last stat from me today. A look at the ‘history book’ figures tell us that the odds are now stacked against Arsenal winning the Premier League... in the division’s 23-year history, only one club (Fergie’s Man Utd) have won the title after losing on the opening day. Sorry, Arsenal fans.
Back on Friday,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
