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Weekend Picks - including Man Utd v Liverpool...

Friday 11th September 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend Preview email today:

  • The Premier League returns for Week Five...
  • Stats You Need To Know – standout stats for the weekend games...
  • Prem10 Picks ­– recommended bets....
  • Including Man Utd v Liverpool...

The latest round of Euro 2016 Qualifiers are over and this weekend the Premier League returns for Round 5 of the season...

Some encouraging early trends are developing in the Goals, Corners, Cards & Booking Points categories that we primarily target – with a few strong stats on show in this weekend’s fixtures (see below).

Not every ‘standout stat’ leads us to a bet. We have to take the prices and markets available into account, too. With all my weekend analysis applied a total of 4 selections make the cut for our Prem10 Picksthis week...

Including a Total Cards bet in the big game at Old Trafford where old enemies Man Utd and Liverpool do battle once again.

How your Prem10 service works:

  • We research season-long data, and recent form, past meetings, team news... and a wide range of Match Result, Correct Score, Scorers, Goals, Corners and Cards stats and betting markets

  • I also do all the groundwork for you and go through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to help produce the Stats You Need To Know before betting on any Premier League games or markets

  • We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks

The stats you need to know...

We’ll start with the big one on Sky Sports on Saturday evening...

Man Utd v Liverpool (TV) – Total Cards

  • Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 out of 4 Man Utd games so far
  • Over 3.5 Cards and Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in 100% of Liverpool games
  • Man Utd haven’t received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in any of their 4 games
  • Liverpool have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 3 out of 4 games
  • Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in each of the last 6 Premier League meetings between these sides over the last 3 seasons – with Over 5.5 Cards paying out in 4 of those 6
  • Liverpool are 2nd in the Premier League for Most Yellow Cards (12 Yellows from 4 games)
  • Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in all 4 Premier League games that Referee Michael Oliver has taken charge of this season – with Over 5.5 Cards paying out in 3 of those 4

There’s no love lost between Man Utd and Liverpool and the Cards & Bookings stats reflect that rivalry. There have been 3 Red Cards in the last 6 meetings, and Sunday’s match Referee Michael Oliver has Sent Off 3 players in his 4 games so far this season...

There have been 5 Cards or more in each of Liverpool’s 4 Premier League games so Bet365’s ‘Asian Total Cards – Over 5’ line appeals here @ 3/4 (1.75). That bet wins if there are 6+ Cards, and is void with stakes returned if there are exactly 5 Cards. See Stats Picks below.

Note: In Bet365’s Cards markets, a Yellow Card = 1 Card and a Red Card = 2 Cards. The most one player can get in a game is a score of 3 Cards (for a Yellow and a Red)


Everton v Chelsea (TV) – Team with Most Bookings

  • Everton haven’t received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in any of their 4 games so far
  • Everton have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 2 out of 21 Home games since the start of last season
  • Chelsea have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in their last 4 Premier League visits to Goodison Park

Chelsea are 5/4 (2.25) with William Hill to be the Team with Most Booking Points, but the important thing that the stats are telling us here is that Everton don’t tend to win the Most Bookings in Home games – not necessarily that Chelsea themselves have a strong record of racking up the Most Cards/ Booking Points. With that in mind we have to consider the possibility of a Bookings ‘Tie,’ too and with all things considered there isn’t a strong enough case to back Chelsea outright here. No bet.

Crystal Palace v Man City – Total Goals

  • Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 out of 4 Palace games so far
  • Man City have scored 2+ goals in each of their 4 games so far
  • Palace are yet to keep a Clean Sheet in 5 games in all comps this season
  • Last season Over 2.5 Goals bets paid out in both games between these sides

Over 2.5 Goals stands out on the stats here but odds of 8/13 (1.62) in general don’t appeal. Man City have are yet to concede a goal and another Clean Sheet here could put pay to Palace’s Over 2.5 Goals record. No bet.

Sunderland v Tottenham (TV) – Both Teams to Score

  • Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in all 4 Sunderland games
  • Tottenham have kept just 4 Clean Sheets in 21 Premier League games since the start of 2015
  • Sunderland have the worst defensive record in the division this season, with 10 Goals conceded in 4 games
  • Both Teams to Score bets paid out in this fixture last season with Tottenham winning 2-1 at Home, and a 2-2 draw at Sunderland

Both teams are still looking for their first win of the season, and Tottenham’s poor Clean Sheet record suggests their odds-on price for the Away Win is bad value. The stats point to goals here and Both Teams to Score looks a solid pick at 87/100 (1.87) with 888 Sport, 5/6 (1.83) with BetVictor and 4/5 (1.80) in general. See Stats Picks below.


Sunderland v Tottenham (TV) – Total Corners

  • Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 3 out of 4 Sunderland games
  • Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in all 4 Tottenham games
  • Tottenham’s 2 Away games have averaged just 6.0 Total Corners
  • Sunderland haven’t won the Most Corners in any of their 4 games

On the early season stats this looks a good match-up for an Under 10.5 Corners bet and with this game live on Sky Sports on Sunday lunchtime there should be plenty of Total Corners markets up by kick off. Right now the best option is Under 10.5 Corners @ 9/10 (1.90) with Stan James, or 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365. See Stats Picks below.


Leicester v Aston Villa (TV) – Total Cards

  • Over 3.5 Cards and Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in 100% of Leicester games (4 out of 4)
  • Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 3 out of 4 Villa games

A ‘high Cards’ trends developing here but Bet365 have set their line at 4.5 Cards which doesn’t offer much value – it’s a bit too early in the season to step up and bet at a higher line than the standard 3.5 Cards, and unlike the Man Utd v Liverpool game (rivalry) there are no special circumstances here. No bet.

West Ham v Newcastle (TV) – Total Cards

  • Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 3 out of 4 West Ham games
  • Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 out of 4 Newcastle games
  • West Ham have had 3 players Sent Off so far this season – more than any other Premier League side

Like the Leicester-Villa game above, another trend to keep our eye on – but no bet this weekend with the bookies pushing the line to Over 4.5 Cards.

Norwich v Bournemouth – Anytime Scorer

  • Norwich have yet to keep a Clean Sheet, and have conceded 8 goals in their first 4 games
  • Bournemouth striker Callum Wilson has scored 4 goals in 2 games
  • Wilson has scored 4 of Bournemouth’s 5 Premier League goals
  • Wilson was joint-4th Top Scorer in The Championship last season with 20 goals – and scored in this fixture (Norwich 1 Bournemouth 1)

Considering Norwich are yet to stop any opponents scoring and Callum Wilson is Bournemouth’s main goal threat, odds of 2/1 (3.00) in the Anytime Scorer market look decent value here. Best price 2/1 with Skybet, Betfair Sportsbook and BetBright. See Value Picks below.




Prem10 Picks...

This weekend’s recommended bets are...

Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:

  • Man Utd v Liverpool – ‘Asian Total Cards – Over 5’ @ 3/4 (1.75) with Bet365
  • Sunderland v Tottenham – Both Teams to Score @ 87/10 (1.87) with 888 Sport
  • Sunderland v Tottenham – Under 10.5 Corners @ 9/10 (1.90) with Stan James

Value Picks – my pick of the best value prices on offer:

Latest Premier League odds here




You’ll find more stats and bets on our site...

Your Prem10 Friday email gives you my take on the weekend’s standouts stats and betting opportunities. As well as my preview email, you can also view the latest 2015/16 Season stats and Previous Seasons data for all 20 Premier League teams on our website, helping you pick your own bets and find the best opportunities for any game...

  • The site contains a wide range of stats and covers stacks of betting markets across the Match Result, Goals, Corners, Cards & Booking Points and Player/ Scorer categories. With all our stats pages designed to give you an at-a-glance guide to the bets that payout most often on every team
  • You can also use the Head-2-Head tool to match up the Home v Away stats for any game. Click on each game on the weekend fixture list on our site to view the Head-2-Head. Or use the drop-down menus to select any two teams to compare
  • Plus, there’s our overall League Stats pages – Team Stats, Player Stats and Referee Stats – where you can find out which teams/ players/ Referees provide the most winning bets in which markets. Those stats currently show the final figures in summary for last season, and we’ll be updating them for 2015/16 once a bit more form goes in the database

Log-in to take advantage of all our site has to offer at: www.Prem10.co.uk

I’ll be back on Monday with a review of the weekend stats and results.

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk

We research our recommendations and articles thoroughly, but disclaim all liability for any inaccuracies or omissions found in this email. All prices correct at time of sending to subscribers.

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