Weekend Picks - including Man City at 7/2...

Friday 11th December 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:

• This week’s standout stats & prices...
• Man City value at 7/2...
• Two standout Anytime Scorer picks... 

In Wednesday’s Spotlight email we identified a handful of players to follow in the Scorer markets – and two of them catch the eye in this weekend’s games.

Plus the stats have thrown up some 7/2 value for Man City v Swansea, and a 100% trend on West Brom...

Having studied all the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend...

We’re off to the Etihad Stadium first, where there’s an eye-catching price about the Home team...

Matching records say 7/2 Man City is value...

Man City v Swansea – Most Bookings

• Opponents have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 6 of Swansea’s 7 Away games
• Man City have landed Most Cards/ Booking Points bets in 3 of their last 5 Home games

The Home team look value for the Most Bookings here.

Man City and Swansea have got exactly the same Disciplinary records this season – a total of 27 Yellow Cards each (and no Red Cards) from 15 games played. Digging deeper into the stats, the Home/ Away split actually puts Man City ahead with 15 Yellows to Swansea’s 11.

William Hill are 21/10 (3.10) for Man City in this market, but we can get as big as 7/2 (4.50) and 16/5 (4.20) elsewhere. The latter prices look well worth taking about the Home team.

There are stacks of highly-rated stats and bets in the Premier League – but we don’t always get the chance to back them at a value price...

• Tottenham, for example, are our top-ranked team for Most Corners bets (80% strike rate) – but odds of just 1/3 (1.33) to land that bet v Newcastle this weekend are simply too short to be of interest

These three trends deserve to be backed at this weekend’s prices, though...

Ighalo is the man at 2/1...

Sunderland v Watford – Anytime Scorer

• Odion Ighalo has scored 53% of Watford’s goals – the highest ‘percentage of team goals’ ratio in the Premier League
• Ighalo has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 5 of his last 10 games

Odion Ighalo looks a standout Anytime Scorer pick at 2/1 here.

Watford have played 7 Away games and so far only league leaders Man City have stopped them from scoring. And as highlighted in our Spotlight analysis earlier this week, Ighalo is the main man for Watford in front of goal...

Backing Ighalo Anytime Scorer to level stakes at odds of 2/1 (3.00) would’ve produced 5 pts profit from 10 games, and 2/1 is an appealing price for a player scoring over half of his team’s goals.

Another low-scoring game in store at Anfield...

Liverpool v West Brom – Under 2.5 Goals

• Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in all 7 West Brom Away games (100%)
• Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 out of 6 games at Anfield since Jurgen Klopp became Liverpool manager
• Liverpool have scored 1 or less goals in 5 of their 7 Premier League Home games this season (71%)
• West Brom have scored 1 or less goals in all 7 Away games (100%)

The stats suggest another low-scoring game at Anfield. Liverpool’s best scoring performances under Klopp have come in Away games, and West Brom’s results sheet is peppered with 1-1, 1-0 and 0-0 score-lines.

Lukaku to make it 7 in a row...

Norwich v Everton (TV) – Anytime Scorer

• Romelu Lukaku has scored in 6 Everton games in a row in all comps, including 5 in a row in the Premier League
• Norwich have got the worst Clean Sheet record in the Premier League – just 1 Clean Sheet in 15 games

Romelu Lukaku is arguably the form striker in the league right now, and demands our attention in the Scorer markets this weekend...

I’m keen to focus on the Anytime Scorer market in particular here – only Jamie Vardy has landed more Anytime Scorer bets than Lukaku’s 8 this season, but the Everton man has just the one First Scorer payout to his name.

Enjoy the weekend football – I’ll be back with a stats update in your Review email on Monday.

Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk