Weekend Picks - a 3/1 shot at the Canaries...

Friday 12th February 2016

In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:

• This week’s standout stats & prices...
• Canaries on a sinking ship...
• Payet catches the eye at 3/1...
• Reds to rule on the road...

Sky Sports are showing a triple-header of live Super Sunday games this weekend...

Arsenal v Leicester and Man City v Tottenham sees the current Top 4 in action, but it’s the game at Aston Villa that gets my attention in the stats markets...

In the Saturday afternoon games, two prices catch the eye at Norwich – both of which involve us getting value on the Away side.

Having studied all the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend...

With our Weekend Picks, I’m always looking for a value price. The stats lead us so far – but I’ll only be recommending a bet when my analysis and opinion suggests the odds are in our favour.

Three prices standout this weekend...

Canaries on a sinking ship...

Norwich v West Ham – Draw No Bet

• Norwich have lost 6 games in a row in all comps
• West Ham have only lost 2 of their last 15 games in all comps

West Ham continue to be underrated in the Match Result markets...

Granted, West Ham have lost their last 2 Away games in the league (at Southampton and Newcastle respectively). But as we alluded to last week, West Ham have landed the Win or Draw ‘Double Chance’ on 12 out of 15 occasions (80%) this season where they have been priced up at 2/1+ (3.00+) for the win. The Hammers are 2/1+ across the board this week...

Norwich look a good match-up. In fact, they look to be in a relegation tailspin, especially after losing 5-4 at Home to Liverpool. The Canaries have conceded 19 goals in their current 6-game losing streak against Premier League opposition, and have failed to score in 4 of those 6 games.

Payet catches the eye at 3/1...

Norwich v West Ham – Anytime Scorer

• Dimitri Payet has scored in 3 out of 9 Premier League Away appearances for West Ham

Having already identified Norwich as a weak Home prospect this weekend, I’m going after a decent-looking price on their opponents in the Anytime Scorer market.

Norwich have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 6 games, and one of West Ham’s star performers, midfielder Dimitri Payet, catches the eye here at odds of 3/1 (4.00).

Payet is by no means a goal machine but his last 3 goals have all come in Away games. Backing him to level stakes @ 3/1 in Away games has produced a 33% ROI so far this season.

And with Norwich goalkeeper Declan Rudd making several mistakes in recent weeks, the free-kick taking Payet could get a few sights at goal in this one...

Reds to rule on the road...

Aston Villa v Liverpool (TV) – Corner Handicap

• Villa have won the Most Corners in just 3 of their last 10 Home games
• Liverpool -1 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 4 of their last 6 Away games

Liverpool look a solid pick on the Corner Handicap here...

The Reds are averaging 2 corners per Away games more than opponents this season, and have smashed the -1 Corner Handicap a couple of times in recent Away games, 12-3 at Leicester and 9-3 at West Ham.

Liverpool have won the Most Corners in twice as many games as Villa this season, including an 11-1 corners score in the reverse fixture. Their Away stats say they can boss the corners again...

I’ll be back on Monday with a weekend stats review...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
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