Weekend Picks - Look for big scores on the final day...

Friday 13th May 2016

In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:

• This week’s standout stats & prices...
• Goals in store at Stoke and Swansea…

We’ve seen some high-scoring games in recent weeks, and the stats say we can expect more thrills & spills on the final day of the season…

Last May the final round of Premier League fixtures featured 4-1, 5-1 and 6-1 score-lines. Don’t be surprised to see some similarly crazy scores this Sunday afternoon…

Having studied the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend.

Goals in store at Stoke and Swansea…

Stoke v West Ham – Total Goals

• Over 3.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Stoke’s last 6 games
• Over 3.5 Goals bets have paid out in 8 of West Ham’s last 9 games

Recent forms says they’ll be goals here – and the higher-than-usual Over 3.5 Goals line offers us a good price…

We had an Over 3.5 Goals winner on West Ham last weekend (West Ham 1 Swansea 4), and after a 3-2 win against Man Utd in midweek the Hammers’ goals form now stands at an eye-catching 8 payouts from 9 games in the Over 3.5 market.

Stoke’s end of season run-in has also seen plenty of goalmouth action with 7 of their last 8 games going Over 2.5 Goals – and 4 of the last 6 paying out on the higher Over 3.5 line.

Bookies are offering the same 13/8 (2.63) price as for last week’s Swansea game here, and with both teams’ current stats in mind that looks a decent pick…

Swansea v Man City – Total Goals

• Over 3.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Swansea’s last 6 games, including each of their last 3
• Over 3.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Man City’s last 7 games, including each of their last 3

A high-scoring game also looks to be on the cards at Swansea…

Since the start of April the Swans’ results have featured a 2-2 draw, 3-0 and 4-0 defeats and most recently 3-1 and 4-1 wins. A mixed bag of score-lines there and Man City are also an unpredictable side in the Win-Lose-Draw markets…

One thing City have been reliable for this season though is goals. They’re our top-rated team for Over 2.5 Goals bets on the season overall, the top-scoring team in the Premier League – and with chief defender Vincent Kompany out injured once again, City are vulnerable at the back.

City’s superior goal difference means a draw will be enough to guarantee 4th place and a Champions League qualification spot at the expense of Man Utd. But nothing in City’s league form suggests they’ll opt for the grind-it-out approach here – their last 3 games have seen a total of 14 goals scored with a 2-2 draw, 4-2 loss and a 4-0 win.

It’s also worth noting that City striker Sergio Aguero is just one goal behind Tottenham’s Harry Kane in the race for the Golden Boot. A small point perhaps but I think footballers have these things in mind and I would expect Aguero & Man City to go for goals here…

I’ll be back on Monday with a look back the final day – and some big EURO 2016 news for you. Roy Hodgson will be announcing his England squad, and to mark the occasion I’ll be releasing an exclusive, free Euro 2016 report – our first step in search of profits in France…

Until then – enjoy the last day of the season…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10