Prem10

Weekend Picks - including Man City v Chelsea...

Friday 14th August 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend email today:

Week Two...
The Friday Night Game – Aston Villa v Man Utd...
The Big One – Man City v Chelsea...
Stats You Need To Know – standout stats for the weekend games...
Prem10 Picks – recommended bets....

Week Two of the 2015/16 Premier League season kicks off with a Friday Night Game on Sky Sports this evening – Aston Villa v Man Utd. See below for the standout stats on that one...

It’s still early days on the betting front, but a couple of markets do catch the eye this weekend based on some strong trends from last season, and recent Head-to-Head meetings. Including the clash between last season’s Top 2, Man City v Chelsea on Sunday...

How your Prem10 service works:

We research season-long data, and recent form, past meetings, team news... and a wide range of Match Result, Correct Score, Scorers, Goals, Corners and Cards stats and betting markets – all season long
I also do all the groundwork for you and go through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to help produce the Stats You Need To Know before betting on any Premier League games or markets
We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks

The stats you need to know...

We’ll kick off with tonight’s game at Villa Park...

Aston Villa v Man Utd (TV) – Match Result

Villa haven’t beaten Man Utd in 12 games in all competitions, a run stretching back to December 2009
Villa lost 4 out of 5 Home games v Top 5 sides last season – but their 1-1 draw with Man Utd was the one time that they avoided defeat
Man Utd won just 6 Away games last season (32%), and just 2 out of 10 (20%) Away games v Bottom Half sides

The bookies have Man Utd as the odds-on, 8/11 (1.73) favourite in the Match Result market tonight. On the historical Head-to-Head, Man Utd certainly have the beating of Villa. But United’s poor Away record from last season is more than enough to put me off a bet here – especially at this early stage of the season. No bet.

Southampton v Everton (TV) – Match Result

Southampton won 8 out of 10 Home games v Bottom Half sides last season (80%)
Everton lost 7 out of 10 Away games v Top Half sides (70%)
Southampton have beaten Everton in their Home fixture two seasons running, 3-0 last season and 2-0 the season before

Southampton’s solid Home record against opponents of Everton’s level justify them being the favourites to win here, but odds of 19/20 (1.95) don’t appeal this weekend. Both sides started with 2-2 draws last weekend, with the high number of goals out of character for Southampton, who had the second-best defensive record in the Premier League last season. No bet.

Swansea v Newcastle – Team with Most Bookings

Swansea received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 1 of their 19 Home games last season (5%). Averaging 1.5 Cards For per Home game
Bets on Newcastle to receive the Most Cards/ Booking Points paid out in 11 of their 19 Away games (55%). Averaging 2.6 Cards for per Away games
Newcastle have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in each of their last 3 visits to Swansea. Last season’s Cards result in this fixture: Swansea 1 Yellow Card (10 pts) Newcastle 3 Yellow Cards (30 pts)

Swansea’s low Home record for Most Cards/ Bookings Pts bets mean the price on the Away side is worth considering in that market whenever Swansea are in action at Home. Newcastle fit the bill quite nicely – last season there were 3 or more Cards in 87% of all their Premier League games, with Newcastle themselves averaging 2.6 Cards per Away game.

Newcastle are 8/11 (1.73) in Bet365’s ‘0 Card Handicap’ market and 3/4 (1.75) with William Hill for the Most Booking Points this weekend. That price is fair based on the stats, but with a new manager at the helm at Newcastle I’m reluctant to bet on their very first Away game of the season. We’ll be keeping an eye on the match stats for both teams though, with a few to future bets. No bet.

West Ham v Leicester – Total Corners

Over 10.5 Corners bets paid out in 15 of West Ham’s 19 Home games last season (79%)
Over 10.5 Corners bets paid out in 66% of Leicester’s Premier League games last season
West Ham Home games averaged 12.3 Total Corners. Leicester Away games averaged 12.1
Over 10.5 Corners bets paid out in both games between these sides last season, with 13 Corners in each fixture

West Ham and Leicester are two of the Premier League’s top-rated Over 10.5 Corners sides from last season. That option is a little too short for my liking this weekend though, priced at 8/15 (1.53) with Stan James. Bet365 offer bigger odds of 5/6 (1.83) but are asking for one corner more with their Over 11.5 Corners line. No bet for us on this occasion, but that’s another trend I’ll be keeping a close eye on as the season progresses.

Crystal Palace v Arsenal (TV) – Both Teams to Score

Palace scored in 8 of their last 10 games v Top Half sides – Home or Away – last season
Arsenal kept a Clean Sheet in just 3 of their last 10 games v Bottom Half sides – Home or Away – last season
Both Teams to Score bets paid out in 63% of Palace Home games and Arsenal Away games
Arsenal did the double over Palace last season, winning both games 2-1
Palace have scored in 14 out of 19 Premier League games since Alan Pardew took over (74%)

After Arsenal’s 2-0 Home defeat by West Ham last weekend, odds of 4/1 (5.00) Palace to pull off another ‘shock’ will no doubt attract a few bets this weekend. It’s worth noting however that only once in the last two seasons have Arsenal lost back-to-back Premier League games.

Palace themselves started with a confident 3-1 win at newly-promoted Norwich, and their goal-scoring exploits since Alan Pardew took over are a key point for me here. The stats suggest Palace can get on the score-sheet here – while Arsenal, despite drawing a blank last week, haven’t gone back-to-back league games without scoring since August 2012. Both Teams to Score is 4/5 (1.80) with BetVictor and in general. See Stats Picks below.

Man City v Chelsea (TV) – Match Result

Chelsea are unbeaten v Man City in their last 4 Premier League meetings – W2 D2 L0
Chelsea had the best record when playing fellow Top 5 sides last season – W3 D4 L1
Bets on the Draw have paid out in 4 of Chelsea’s 6 games played against Top 7 sides in 2015

Contrasting fortunes for these sides on the opening weekend – Man City were impressive 3-0 winners at West Brom, while 10-men Chelsea drew 2-2 at Home v Swansea. The bookies make City 23/20 (2.15) favourites to win here, with Chelsea 11/4 (3.75) and the Draw 5/2 (3.50)...

Recent fixtures between Chelsea and their fellow Top 5 sides usually see Jose Mourinho’s team avoiding defeat (lost just one of 8 games v the Top 5 last season). The Draw paid out in 50% of that significant sample of games, and with that record in mind odds of 5/2 (3.50) for the Draw would look to be the best value in the Match Result market here. The Corner stats appeal to me more for a bet though...

Man City v Chelsea (TV) – Corner Handicap

Man City won the Most Corners in 17 out of 19 Home games last season (89%) – covering a -2 Corner Handicap in 79%
Chelsea won the Most Corners in less than half of their Away games last season (47%)
Man City have won the Most Corners in 9 of their last 10 meetings v Chelsea in all comps, Home and Away
Bets on Man City -2 Corner Handicap have paid out in each of the last 4 Premier League meetings

Man City had the best Home ‘Most Corners’ record in the Premier League last season, and on top of that they dominated the Corner count in both fixtures v Chelsea – winning the Corners tally 8-1 at Stamford Bridge and 14-2 at Home at the Etihad (both games ended in 1-1 Draws).

The Man City -2 Corner Handicap looks a standout bet here – available at 20/21 (1.95) with Bet365. Other bookies such as William Hill, Skybet, Paddy Power and BetVictor should follow suit between now and kick off. See Stats Picks below.

Prem10 Picks...

This weekend’s recommended bets are...

Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:

Crystal Palace v Arsenal – Both Teams to Score @ 4/5 (1.80) with BetVictor
Man City v Chelsea – Man City -2 Corner Handicap @ 20/21 (1.95) with Bet365

Latest Premier League odds here

P.S

Remember you can view our 2015/16 Season Bets report here – including advice on the Relegation and Top Goalscorer markets. And view a summary of the top-rated bets from last season for every side in our Team-by-Team Guide here.

I’ll be back on Tuesday – after all the games have been played – with a review of the weekend stats and results.

Until then,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Prem10
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