Weekend Picks - 4/1 value at Stoke and Spurs...
Friday 15th January 2016
In your Prem10 – Weekend Picks email today:
- This week’s standout stats & prices...
- 4/1 value at Stoke and Spurs…
- Hornets and Potters for the Most Bookings…
Midweek madness…
In a crazy set of midweek games – including two 3-3 draws – we didn’t land any of our three Picks.
In each case we were on a highly rated selection at a standout price or Handicap line – but the Goals and Corners stats didn’t fall into place for us this time. Man City failed to score at Home for the first time all season (0-0 v Everton), while Man Utd’s 9-game Most Corners and -1 Corner Handicap run came to an end at Newcastle (5 corners to 3).
We continue to search out the top-rated stats. And we continue to bet only when a good value price is available. That’s the plan with our Picks, and this weekend four selections catch the eye…
Having studied all the prices and markets, here’s my opinion of the best betting value this weekend...
All of our featured games are live on TV this weekend. We’ll kick off with the Saturday lunchtime game on BT Sport…
4/1 value at Stoke and Spurs…
Tottenham v Sunderland (TV) – Anytime Scorer
- Jermain Defoe has scored 5 goals in Sunderland’s last 2 games
Jermain Defoe has looked as sharp as ever recently, and Paddy Power are offering a standout 4/1 for him to score against his old club…
Sunderland have scored more goals on the road than at Home this season, while Spurs have kept just 3 Clean Sheets in their last 10 games in all comps at White Hart Lane.
There have been 20 goals scored in Sunderland’s last 5 games. And with more goal-mouth action expected here, it could pay to look to the Scorer markets…
Tottenham’s star striker Harry Kane is as short as 4/9 (1.44) to score, but Sunderland’s main goal threat Jermain Defoe is available at 7/2 (4.50) with Betfred and Ladbrokes – and a standout 4/1 (5.00) Anytime Scorer with Paddy Power. Defoe is the value. |
And in the Sunday afternoon live game on Sky Sports…
Stoke v Arsenal (TV) – Anytime Scorer
- Jonathan Walters has scored 3 goals in his last 4 appearances for Stoke
Jon Walters has found the net in this fixture two seasons running, and catches the eye at 4/1 to trouble Arsenal again…
Before starting and scoring against Norwich in midweek, Walters had been used as a substitute in each of Stoke’s last 5 Premier League games. He’s been making the most of his time on the pitch with 3 goals from 4 appearances so far in January.
Arsenal have conceded 7 goals in their last 2 Away games and Stoke’s Home form says they can threaten the visitors’ goal here – Stoke have turned over Man Utd (2-0), Man City (2-0) and Chelsea (1-0) at the Britannia Stadium since November…
Arsenal’s Olivier Giroud, Alexis Sanchez and Theo Walcott occupy the top three places in the Anytime Scorer betting here, each priced below the 6/4 (2.50) mark. But Stoke’s Jon Walters represents the value for me at 7/2 (4.50) with Boylesports and 888 Sport and a standout 4/1 (5.00) with Ladbrokes. |
- Note: Scorer bets are void if the player plays no part in the game
There are stacks of highly-rated stats and bets in the Premier League – but we don’t always get the chance to back them at a value price...
- For example, Tottenham v Sunderland is a ‘top v bottom’ match-up on our Most Corners stats – but Tottenham are short odds-on at just 1/5 (1.20) at best to win the Corners Match Bet. We can get more attractive prices and better value elsewhere…
Hornets and Potters for the Most Bookings…
Swansea v Watford (TV) – Most Bookings
- Watford have received the Most Bookings in 70% of Away games – and in 4 of their last 5
- Swansea have received the Most Bookings in just 4 of 21 Premier League games all season (19%)
Watford look value in Bet365’s Card Handicap market here…
In 7 of Swansea’s last 8 games, opponents have landed Most Cards/ Booking Points bets. And if Kyle Naughton’s dubious Red Card from Wednesday night turns out to be rescinded, that would technically be 8 out of 8.
The League Stats tables on our website show Watford are ranked 3rd in the Premier League overall for this bet, and this fixture looks a decent opportunity to follow that trend.
William Hill make Watford odds-on at 8/15 (1.53) for the Most Booking Points, but Bet365 look to have been far more generous with their 0 Card Handicap option available at a standout 5/4 (2.25). Also check for Most Cards markets with the likes of 888 Sport, Unibet and Bwin ahead of kick off on Monday night. |
Stoke v Arsenal (TV) – Most Bookings
- Opponents have landed Most Bookings bets in 5 of Arsenal’s last 7 Premier League Away games
- Arsenal have received Most Bookings in just 1 of their 11 Away games (9%)
Arsenal are the best-behaved side in the Premier League, and Stoke are worthy of our attention in the Most Cards & Bookings markets here…
Stoke have a 50% Home record for this bet while Arsenal have only rewarded Most Cards/ Bookings backers in 2 of 21 league games all season.
Bet365 make each team an 11/8 (2.38) chance for the 0 Card Handicap (Most Cards) bet – but the stats say Stoke are the most likely team, and they are the value here. Also available, Most Booking Points – Stoke at 21/20 (2.05) with William Hill. |
Prem10 Picks...
In summary, my pick of the prices this week are...
Value Picks – in search of a big price winner, using the stats as a guide:
- Tottenham v Sunderland – Anytime Scorer – Jermain Defoe @ 4/1 (5.00) with Paddy Power
- Stoke v Arsenal – Anytime Scorer – Jonathan Walters @ 4/1 (5.00) with Ladbrokes
Stats Picks – best value prices for the top-rated bets, flagged up by the stats:
- Swansea v Watford – Watford 0 Card Handicap @ 5/4 (2.25) with Bet365
- Stoke v Arsenal – Stoke 0 Card Handicap @ 11/8 (2.38) with Bet365
Latest Premier League odds here |
I’ll be back on Monday with your weekend stats Review – and a look ahead to next week’s games. Until then,
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
